Dispatch

Poilievre gets his first crack at Trudeau in Mississauga, but it’s no election preview

Prime Minster Justin Trudeau delivers remarks next to Charles Sousa at his campaign office, during a byelection campaign stop in Mississauga, Ont., on, Thursday, December 1, 2022. Tijana Martin/The Canadian Press.

Monday’s federal byelection in Mississauga-Lakeshore, located in the Peel Region of Ontario, will be the first ballot box skirmish between the Pierre Poilievre-led Conservatives and Justin Trudeau’s governing Liberals, but will it be a preview of the next full federal election? 

Charles Sousa, the former Ontario Minister of Finance, is running for the Liberals, while Ron Chhinzer, a member of the Peel Regional Police Service, is running for the Conservatives, in a race that also includes 38 other candidates—34 of whom are running as Independents.1The high number of candidates is due to a protest by electoral reform advocates who are trying to draw attention to what they consider to be issues with the first past the post system.

Robert Martin, a data analyst with Mainstreet Research, says even if the Liberals lose this byelection, it does not necessarily mean Poilievre’s relentless criticism of the government on inflation and speaking to Canadians’ current economic anxieties will be effective in the next federal election. 

“We have zero idea what will happen in terms of inflation…house prices could be anywhere from half to double in 2025,” says Martin. “We have no idea if what Poilievre is even talking about right now are still going to be issues.” 

Other factors like the December weather may distort the mood of voters in Mississauga-Lakeshore. 

According to Nelson Wiseman, Professor Emeritus of Political Science at the University of Toronto, many voters may decide they’d rather stay home if given the option on a mid-December day in southern Ontario. Studies suggest that weather does affect voter turnout, albeit by modest margins. 

Wiseman says other factors can have a more powerful impact on voter turnout and in turn lead to lower turnouts even in warm months, like last June when a smaller percentage of Ontarians voted in the provincial election than ever before in Ontario’s history. 

“Are people really upset? Do they really want to change? When that’s the case, then you do have a tendency to have higher turnouts,” says Wiseman. 

While predicting the Liberals will retain the riding on Monday, Wiseman agrees that it is no indicator of what will happen in the next general election. 

“I think the Conservatives are really well positioned to win the next general election, and they’ll be in a good position to win this riding, I just don’t think right now,” says Wiseman. “There is anger, there always is, and that really motivates an opposition party, and I think the Conservatives have that going for them.”

Martin says all of Mississauga’s ridings have voted for the same party in every election except once in 2008. 

“Generally any Mississauga byelection is a good indicator for how Mississauga is going to be voting at any given time,” says Martin. “That’s six crucial seats federally…it’s important for any government or opposition to be able to win that in one shot.”

The Harper-led government swept every single Mississauga seat in the 2011 election when it was re-elected with a comfortable majority, while Trudeau’s Liberals have swept Mississauga in every election since. 

The last three federal elections have seen the Conservatives lose ground to the Liberals in suburban areas across the country, most punishingly in the Greater Toronto Area in places like Mississauga. 

The Mississauga-Lakeshore riding was created in 1979 and has been held by the Liberals ever since with the exception of a four-year stretch between 2011 and 2015. 

In 2021, the incumbent Liberal MP Sven Spengemann won by 3,523 votes out of a total of 56,259 votes cast. In every one of the riding’s six contests since 2004, the victor has won by double digits just twice. 

Although usually more closely fought than other typically Liberal ridings, Martin does not believe it is essential for the Conservatives to win Mississauga-Lakeshore in a federal election to form a government. Martin points out that Harper’s Conservatives were able to win two general elections, albeit minority victories, in 2006 and 2008 while only winning a single Mississauga seat between either contest. 

Martin says the more recent trend of centre-right parties gaining traction in working-class areas while progressive parties find more success in wealthier suburban areas suggests the relatively affluent Mississauga-Lakeshore riding will be even tougher to win for the Conservatives. 

“This is generally a riding you’d expect Left-leaning parties to win… this isn’t necessarily a riding that you’d expect conservatives to be gaining in,” says Martin. 

The Mississauga-Lakeshore byelection takes place on Monday, December 12, 2022.

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