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Tyler McCann: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is affecting global food security—Here’s how Canada can help

Commentary

The invasion of Ukraine should change how Canadians think about global food security. Now more than ever, food producers need to think about how they can boost productivity to meet the critical need for available, accessible, affordable food. 

Consumers around the world were feeling the impact of higher food prices even before Russian troops crossed the border into Ukraine. In Canada, prices increased more than five percent from January 2021 to 2022. However, that increase pales compared to what is being experienced around the world. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index went from 113 to 135 in that same time, reaching a new all-time high. Adjusted for inflation, food prices are at their highest since the index was created in 1961.Global food prices rise in January https://reliefweb.int/report/world/global-food-prices-rise-january-enarruzh#:~:text=The%20FAO%20Food%20Price%20Index,of%20commonly%2Dtraded%20food%20commodities.

Driven by concerns over tight supplies and a possible invasion, the Index climbed higher in February, and it will likely continue to reach new records for the foreseeable future. This is incredibly painful in the developing world where families spend 30 percent or more of their income on food. In Canada, that number is 10 percent.

The Russian invasion will likely have a significant impact on global food security. There is an immediate need to feed millions of refugees fleeing Ukraine. The invasion, the blockage of the Black Sea, and economic sanctions will effectively make 80 percent of the global trade of sunflower oil, 35 percent of wheat, 25 percent of barley, and 20 percent of corn out of the supply equation in nations that desperately need to import that food.

Intervention from the World Food Programme, governments, and philanthropy efforts will help feed refugees. These efforts will divert focus and resources away from the one-in-four people,“Moderate food security includes those who struggle or worry about the ability to access or afford a healthy, nutritious balanced diet, not only those who struggle to meet their energy needs.” https://ourworldindata.org/hunger-and-undernourishment#moderate-food-insecurity globally, who are moderately to severely food insecure.

The future of food will help address food security in the long term. That future will likely include solutions like vertical farming“Vertical farming — the practice of growing food in stacked trays — isn’t new; innovators have been growing crops indoors since Roman times. What is new is the efficiency of LED lighting and advanced robotics that allow vertical farms today to produce 20 times more food on the same footprint as is possible in the field.” https://news.uoguelph.ca/2021/02/three-technologies-poised-to-change-food-and-the-planet/ and cellular agriculture.“Cellular agriculture is the field of growing animal agricultural products directly from cell cultures instead of using livestock. The primary research in the field has revolved around growing meats (beef, pork, poultry, and fish) as well as animal products (dairy and egg white) in cell cultures.” https://www.cellag.ca/cellagabout#:~:text=Cellular%20agriculture%20is%20the%20field,egg%20white)%20in%20cell%20cultures. It should match production to a region’s potential. It must include more food being produced in Africa and the Middle East. 

Today, there is an urgent need for more food. 

As an immediate measure, Europe and the United States are considering taking land out of conservation set-asides and bringing it back into production. There are increasing calls for the EU to rewrite its Farm to Fork strategy with a more explicit focus on boosting production to increase self-sufficiency.

Canada has fewer tools available to boost its already high agriculture productivity, especially in the short term. We do not have significant amounts of land set aside that could be brought back into production. Planting intentions are primarily set for 2022, and we do not hold meaningful reserves.

That does not mean that there is nothing we can do to address both acute and chronic food global security challenges.  

To start, Canada needs to ensure that it does not reduce its agricultural productivity. Efforts to increase sustainably, such as the federal nitrogen fertilizer emission reduction target, need to carefully consider their consequences on productivity.“In December 2020, the federal government set a national fertilizer emissions reduction target of 30 per cent below 2020 levels by 2030.” https://fertilizercanada.ca/our-focus/stewardship/emissions-reduction-initiative/#:~:text=In%20December%202020%2C%20the%20federal,below%202020%20levels%20by%202030. There also needs to be an examination of farm input supply chains, including fertilizers, to ensure they are reliable. Canada should identify opportunities to boost domestic production of key inputs and implement policies needed to enable it.

Canada should also increase investments in research and encourage innovation to further boost productivity. There is a critical need for more public and private investment in productivity-boosting areas, including developing new plant varieties, improving plant and animal efficiency, and reducing waste. 

Canada should also support international efforts to boost food production in regions that are not meeting their full potential.

Ultimately, Canada’s agri-food system needs to think more globally about its role in addressing food security. Exports should no longer just be considered for their economic benefits. They play a more important role by increasing the availability and affordability of food around the world.

Not only is increasing food security the right thing to do from a humanitarian perspective, but it is also the right thing to do from a security perspective, too. The last time the FAO price index was this high, there were riots around the world, leading, in part, to the Arab Spring. Protests have already started again in Kazakhstan and the Middle East.“‘This area of the Black Sea plays a major role in the global food system, exporting at least 12 percent of the food calories traded in the world,’ said Mr. Houngbo. ‘Forty percent of wheat and corn exports from Ukraine go to the Middle East and Africa, which are already grappling with hunger issues, and where further food shortages or price increases could stoke social unrest.'” https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/03/1113332

Increasing food prices and disruptions in food availability risk spreading the crisis far beyond Ukraine’s borders. The invasion of Ukraine is changing how we think about the world. It also needs to change how Canadians think about food security and our country’s role in feeding the world.

Tyler McCann

Tyler McCann is the managing director of the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute. His career in agri-food policy includes working for federal ministers, farm groups, industry associations and agri-food businesses. Tyler also farms with his family in Western Quebec.

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