Is Pierre Poilievre a polarizing or unifying figure in the Conservative Party? Is he both? 

Over the weekend, conservative politicians, pundits, and operators gathered to attend the annual Calgary Stampede. Among them were the Conservative leadership race’s top remaining contenders, Poilievre and Jean Charest. 

The staunchly conservative Poilievre was warmly received by crowds at several events he attended in his Calgary hometown. Meanwhile, according to the Calgary Herald’s Don Braid, Charest was greeted with jeers and boos while appearing at a Conservative Party-hosted barbeque. 

Charest is considered a more moderate candidate than Poilievre, and he has not shied away from courting the supporters of centrist Patrick Brown, who was disqualified from the race last week. 

Poilievre has been called the frontrunner since entering the race in February, with Charest considered his nearest competitor. Polling data suggests Charest has remained far less popular than Poilievre among Conservative supporters throughout the contest. 

Poilievre and Charest’s campaigns have engaged in an ongoing rhetorical battle that has been portrayed as a battle for the party’s soul in the media. 

Commenting on the barbeque and Poilievre’s likely victory in the race, Braid wrote, “the only Conservative party he’ll unite is one either abandoned by or purged of moderates.” 

Just last Thursday, the Globe & Mail’s Lawrence Martin described Poilievre as “Pierre the polarizer”.

So just how divisive is Poilievre? 

Hub contributor Karamveer Lalh is a former staffer for both the federal Conservatives and Alberta’s provincial United Conservative Party. He says that moderates who often criticize Poilievre tend to be overly engaged online.

“They see a lot of these proposals and comments that Pierre makes, and they read too much into them,” opined Lalh, who says Poilievre’s political positions have been fairly consistent. “On social issues, he’s moderate, on economic ones he’s libertarian. Generally speaking, your moderate members of the party and moderate conservatives, sort of like that approach.”

Lalh, an Edmonton-based lawyer, says conservative-minded people he interacts with like Poilievre’s “prosecutorial” style in the House of Commons, and see him as someone who asks good questions and holds the governing Liberals to account.

“I think a lot of moderates who are frustrated with Justin Trudeau will ultimately vote for Pierre if their motivation is truly that they’re frustrated with Justin Trudeau,” says Lalh.

Polling suggests that while Poilievre may polarize some party members, he is also far more widely liked than candidates in the last leadership contest. 

On July 7, Mainstreet Research released a poll, commissioned by iPolitics and conducted from May 21 to June 24 among Conservative Party members, regarding the leadership contest’s candidates. Poilievre was the first choice for 53 percent of respondents, 20 percent chose Charest, 12 percent chose Leslyn Lewis, while the other candidates polled in single digits. Of all members polled, 83 percent declared they were certain or very likely to vote for their first choice. 

By comparison during the 2020 leadership race, Mainstreet’s last poll of Conservative members before the vote showed 41 percent of respondents picking then-perceived frontrunner Peter MacKay as their first choice. Eventual winner Erin O’Toole was the first choice for 32 percent of polled members. 

Poilievre has enjoyed a far more comfortable lead among supporters throughout the 2022 leadership race in multiple surveys. A May Abacus Data poll showed that 42 percent of Conservative supporters held a positive view of Poilievre, while Charest once again came in second with 26 percent. The same poll showed that 14 percent of supporters held a negative view of Poilievre, while 25 percent held a negative view of Charest. 

An Abacus poll during the previous leadership race in May 2020, revealed that 39 percent of Conservative voters had a positive view of MacKay, while 9 percent held a negative view. For O’Toole, 28 percent viewed him positively, while 6 percent had a negative view.

If taken as indicators of the base’s mood, Poilievre as a candidate enjoys far higher levels of approval from party members and supporters than his predecessors in the last leadership contest, while Charest is disliked by far wider margins than the 2020 candidates. 

Mainstreet’s 2022 poll of Conservative members reported that 45 percent would never vote for Charest, while 16 percent would not vote for Poilievre. Among Poilievre supporters, 66 percent reported they would never vote for Charest, while 54 percent of Charest’s supporters would never vote for Poilievre. 

In a piece published in the Hub on Monday, contributor Rahim Mohamed declared that based on the numbers of new members signed up by Poilievre’s campaign—allegedly 312,000—and his support from pre-existing members, his victory in the race is a matter of arithmetic. Mohamed credits Poilievre’s success with firmly sticking by his populist message when Canadians are frustrated with their declining economic fortunes.

Poilievre has criticized the Bank of Canada for failing to curb inflation, the Liberals for insufficiently addressing the housing crisis, and recently, Rogers Communications for last week’s service outage that left millions of Canadians without internet or cellular service. 

Furthermore, Mohamed states that Poilievre’s campaign did well to reach out to the nascent freedom movement that emerged in Canada over the last year, and for stating that he is running to make Canadians“the freest people on Earth”. 

“This message has been catnip to the Conservative Party’s base, who’ve united behind Poilievre with a uniformity not seen since Stephen Harper’s departure from politics,” wrote Mohamed. 

Following up over email, Mohamed agrees the Poilievre campaign’s tone has alienated moderates by verbally attacking the Charest and Brown campaigns, but tapped into a larger pool of non-voters by focusing on issues like affordability. 

While describing himself as a moderate conservative, Mohamed states moderates have always been better-represented in elite circles like the Parliamentary Press Gallery than the general public. He points out that the old Progressive Conservatives, where many moderate Conservatives like Charest started their political careers, received only 12 percent of the vote in the last federal election they contested in 2000. 

“Moderates likely account for a smaller proportion of the CPC membership than pundits commonly assume, which explains why we’re seeing such strong polling numbers for Poilievre,” says Mohamed, who says there is no reason to believe the moderates’ stock has grown since the 2000 election. 

The Conservative leadership election is expected to take place in Ottawa on September 10.

It was poised to be a sleepy week for the Conservative Party leadership race following the Canada Day long weekend. 

Then on Tuesday evening, Ian Brodie, chair of the Conservative Leadership Election Organizing Committee (LEOC), released a statement announcing candidate Patrick Brown had been disqualified from the contest. 

Brodie’s statement revealed the committee voted 11-6 to disqualify Brown following allegations his campaign violated financial provisions of the Canada Elections Act. Furthermore, the statement read that the Brown campaign had failed to satisfy the committee’s concerns when asked to respond to the allegations. 

This is not the first time a candidate has been disqualified from a Conservative leadership race but never before has a high-profile candidate like Brown been expelled, especially in the closing stages of the contest. 

As of Thursday, Brown is appealing the disqualification. 

Brown’s disqualification leaves Pierre Poilievre and former Quebec premier Jean Charest as the two presumed leading contenders in the leadership race. According to Brown, 44, it was Charest who first interested him in Conservative politics as a teenager, and the two remain friends despite being rivals in the race. 

Speaking with The Hub on Thursday, Brown said it was premature for him to discuss endorsing Charest if the attempt to appeal his disqualification fails.

Despite accusing the Conservative establishment of sabotaging his candidacy, Brown said he does not plan on leaving the party. 

“I still hold out hope that we can build a modern, inclusive Conservative Party,” said Brown in an interview with The Hub on Thursday. “If the party is insistent on giving Pierre Poilievre’s extreme brand of conservatism a coronation, that doesn’t mean I give up on the party.”

These remarks stand in contrast to others he gave last month, where he stated he would not run as an MP under the Conservative party banner if Pierre Poilievre won the leadership, but would consider it if either Charest or Leslyn Lewis emerged victorious.

Brown, the current mayor of Brampton, has also previously stated his intent to run again in Brampton’s mayoral race this fall if he lost the Conservative leadership contest. “If it looks like Pierre is going to win, I would prefer to continue to serve municipally, rather than being a part of what will be an electoral train wreck of the Conservative Party,” Brown said in an interview last month.

On Wednesday, five Brampton city councillors penned an open letter expressing their concern with Brown’s leadership and urging him not to seek another term.

As to the nature of the allegations against Brown’s campaign, after the news of the disqualification broke on Wednesday the National Post reported that a source close to the LEOC revealed the committee’s concerns included a private company paying the salaries of a number of Brown campaign staff. 

Later that day, the Globe & Mail reported that Elections Canada was in possession of text messages related to the alleged violations that caused Brown’s disqualification. The details of the allegations have not yet been revealed to the public, which has led to criticism of the Conservative Party regarding the transparency of its decision. 

Brown went on a media blitz after his disqualification, stating his campaign was not given a fair chance to contest the anonymous allegations (which have since been attributed to a regional organizer on his own campaign) that he denies.

“Simply put, there was no due process provided in this decision, and an unprecedented reverse onus was applied to our campaign,” read a Brown campaign statement. “This decision has disenfranchised over a hundred thousand Canadians from BC to Nova Scotia that chose to join the party…” 

The Conservative leadership campaign has resulted in a record 675,000 Canadians holding party memberships, with Brown’s campaign claiming to have signed up 150,000. Pierre Poilievre’s campaign has self-reported signing up roughly 312,000 members. 

Brown accused the Conservative party establishment of rigging the contest in favour of Poilievre. However, Conservative Party president Rob Batherson stated that the allegations had come from inside the Brown campaign and disagreed that Brown was not afforded due process in responding to the allegations. 

Reactions to the disqualification varied, with some commentators agreeing with Brown’s charge that the Conservative Party establishment wanted him out of the picture and accusing the party of corruption. Others commended the party for taking the allegations seriously and felt the disqualification was an ethical decision.

Hub contributor and University of Manitoba professor of political science Royce Koop disagrees that the LEOC is biased against Brown and says that the relatively lengthy leadership race was to Poilievre’s disadvantage, who entered as the front-runner in February. 

“It’s to be expected that if a candidate is disqualified, he will call into question the impartiality of the governing body,” wrote Koop over email. “But there’s no evidence the LEOC is biased against Brown or biased in favour of Poilievre.” 

Throughout the leadership race, Brown positioned himself as a moderate against Poilievre, who is widely regarded as the more conservative candidate. Relations between the Brown and Poilievre campaigns deteriorated early in the race, with both teams trading rhetorical barbs for months. 

Koop says there is a belief that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government is vulnerable, and that the winner of the Conservative leadership race can reasonably expect to become prime minister, resulting in a more intense contest. 

A Poilievre victory in the leadership race was now described as a near certainty with Brown out of the race. 

“If anything, this episode has shown that the CPC is different from the Liberals,” wrote Koop. “It’s difficult for an entrepreneurial outsider to swoop in and remake the party in their own image.” 

With thousands of paper ballots already mailed out to Conservative Party members, Brown’s name will still appear on the ballot for the leadership election. Any first-place selections for Brown on the ranked ballots will be disregarded by party officials, and those voters’ subsequent ranked choices will be counted once a candidate is eliminated from the ballot.

The leadership election is expected to take place in Ottawa on September 10.