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This crypto winter is going to become an ice age in 2023

Commentary

To close out the year, we’ve asked our contributors and staff to make a prediction about 2023. You would think, after last year, that we’d have learned our lesson about making predictions, but we couldn’t resist. Feel free to save these if you want to embarrass us with them later.


Elon Musk will run for president and the housing market is in for some pain

By Rudyard Griffiths

1. After a quick amendment to the Constitution, Elon Musk will announce that he is running as an independent for the U.S. presidency, shocking the American political establishment with strong poll numbers, grassroots organization, and his own multibillion PAC.

2. Bitcoin will trade under $5,000 USD as the current crypto winter becomes an ice age.

3. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will step down early in the year as leader of the Liberal Party paving the way for an impressive outsider campaign by Mark Carney that will see him vanquish all comers as the economy sours.

4. The Canadian housing market will experience its worse correction since the 1990s as the Bank of Canada’s interest rates work their way through the economy, pushing the country into recession.

5. It will start to dawn on all of us in 2023 that we are on the cusp of an incredible age of abundance powered by machine learning, mNRA vaccines for cancer, early successes with hydrogen fusion, genetic engineering, and personalized medicine.


Raquel Dancho will be next year’s breakout political star

By Rahim Mohamed

One of the oddest things about getting older is seeing people who are younger than you surpass you. So it is with a tinge of envy that I predict that Conservative public safety critic Raquel Dancho—nearly four years my junior—will be next year’s breakout political star.

Dancho, member of parliament for the suburban Winnipeg riding of Kildonan—St. Paul, has flourished as a member of Pierre Poilievre’s shadow cabinet, notably holding Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino’s feet to the fire for misleading Canadians about the range of firearms banned under Bill C-21. (Dancho was recently ejected from the House for calling Mendicino a liar).

Dancho, a dynamic, bilingual speaker with impeccable conservative credentials will be the face of the Conservative Party’s prairie team, stepping into the shoes of long-serving Portage—Lisgar MP and ex-party leader Candice Bergen. Dancho will also be central to the party’s efforts to paint the Trudeau government as “soft on crime” and make public safety a major ballot issue heading into the next federal election.

Dancho may well go on to become Canada’s first prime minister born in the 1990s, but that’s a year-end prediction for a few Decembers from now. 

Expect a (relative) urban housing comeback in 2023

Commentary

To close out the year, we’ve asked our contributors and staff to make a prediction about 2023. You would think, after last year, that we’d have learned our lesson about making predictions, but we couldn’t resist. Feel free to save these if you want to embarrass us with them later.


Cities will be more attractive in 2023

By Steve Lafleur

COVID really scrambled housing markets in the GTA and Lower Mainland. Previously red-hot urban
housing markets (condos in particular) took a back seat to real estate outside of major cities.

While housing prices outside of major cities were already getting pushed up by people fleeing Toronto and Vancouver home prices, COVID was a major accelerant. Anecdotes about people moving to rural areas or smaller cities well outside of normal commuting range became normal.

This trend reversed sharply in 2022 as the realities of commuting came back into focus. As white-collar professionals began gradually returning to the office, cities looked more attractive again. I think this will continue in 2023, as office dwellers move from occasional office appearances to somewhat more regular commuting.

While it’s hard to say what will happen with the overall housing market in the short term, my hunch is that housing in major cities will outperform the rest of the country.


At least one authoritarian leader won’t see the end of 2023 in power

By Patrick Luciani

Predictions are no better than wishful thinking. Even if you guess right, they happen for the wrong reasons.

With that caveat, here are mine. In the coming year, one of the following won’t see the end of the year; V. Putin, Xi Jinping, or Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. All three are sitting on domestic political time bombs, and one is sure to explode.

If I had to choose, the one most likely to end badly is Khamenei. When protestors include most women in your country, there’s little hope that you’ll survive. Even the Supreme Leader’s niece wants him out.

Putin will probably hang in since he’s surrounded by 30,000 to 50,000 Pretorian Guards. They’ll protect him as long as he pays them.

In China, Xi is safe if COVID-19 doesn’t get out of hand. That might change now that all mandates are gone. With low vaccination rates, especially among the old, 2023 could be disastrous for China’s economy and the Communist Party.