This is The Week in Polling, your Saturday dose of interesting numbers from top pollsters in Canada and around the world, curated by The Hub. Here’s what we’re looking at this week.
One in five Canadians say increasing the capital gains inclusion rate will cost them more over the next five years, contrary to government estimates
Next Tuesday, Canadians will see an increase in the capital gains inclusion rate. The inclusion rate will rise from 50 to 67 percent on any gains realized above $250,000 annually for individuals.
The Trudeau government estimates that a mere 0.13 percent of Canadians will be affected by the tax change this year. However, one in five Canadians beg to differ, saying that it will cost them at least a little more within the next five years. According to this Angus Reid poll, Canadians who say they will be paying more in tax because of the increase are from all incomes and political affiliations, though upper-middle to upper-class Conservative Party voters indicate that they will be hit the hardest.
Defending the increase, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said, “It is fair to ask those who are doing really well to contribute a little bit more.”
Nearly half of Canadians think the number of legal immigrants coming to the country should decrease
In 2022, more than 437,000 new permanent residents, along with more than 604,000 temporary workers, relocated to Canada alone. We have been the top country for refugee resettlement globally and have held this title for at least the last four years, welcoming more than 46,528 refugees from over 80 countries in 2022.
According to Research Co. polling, 44 percent of Canadians believe that immigration has a mostly negative effect on Canada. This is opposed to the 42 percent who think immigration has a positive effect and the 14 percent who are not sure of its impact.
Douglas Murray and Natasha Hausdorff win Munk Debate, arguing anti-Zionism is antisemitism
Douglas Murray, a British author, journalist, and political commentator, and Natasha Hausdorff, the director of UK Lawyers for Israel, bested Mehdi Hasan, a British-American journalist and founder of the new media platform Zeteo, and Gideon Levy, an Israeli journalist for Haaretz. Murray and Hausdorff argued on the pro side of the motion, “Be it resolved: anti-Zionism is antisemitism,” while Hasan and Levy argued against it.
Murray and Hausdorff swung the vote by five percent their way, winning 66 percent of the sold-out crowd at Toronto’s famed Roy Thomson Hall. Some topics discussed in the debate included pro-Palestinian protests on North American college and university campuses, what qualifies as acceptable criticism of the Israeli government, and the tragic events of October 7th, the deadliest terrorist attack by the number of fatalities per capita since at least 1970, carried out by the Gaza-based terrorist organization Hamas.
Half of Americans think Trump’s money laundering conviction is an unimportant factor in their voting decision
Former U.S. President Donald Trump was found guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in a New York court. Almost half of American voters see his conviction as “not at all important” or “not very important” when deciding who to cast their ballots for in the 2024 presidential election.
Trump and his Democrat opponent, President Joe Biden, are neck and neck in the latest polls ahead of their first televised debate next Thursday. However, a new projection by poll aggregator 538 has favoured Biden to beat Trump in the upcoming election. In 538’s most recent simulations, Biden wins the presidency 50 times out of 100, whereas Trump wins 49. Although, earlier last week, the same simulations had Trump beating Biden 51 times to 49.
Aiden Muscovitch is a student at the University of Toronto studying Ethics, Society and Law. He has served as The Hub's Assistant Editor and writes The Week in Polling. He has also worked as an intern for Conservative Member of Parliament and Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs Michael Chong.
Recommended for You
The Week in Polling: Americans don’t desire a 51st state; Canadians want their leaders to fight against tariffs; Committed Liberals crave a PM Carney
Paul W. Bennett: Canada is losing its education edge
Hub Exclusive: Financial stress could define 2025 as 70 percent of Canadians believe the economy is in recession
The Week in Polling: Most Canadians are satisfied with Trudeau’s resignation; newcomers want less immigration; the majority of Liberal voters want to merge with the NDP
