The stunning Conservative by-election win in Toronto-St. Paul’s last month has plunged Trudeau’s Liberal Party into a nadir and resulting leadership vacuum. The perilous state of the party is only exacerbated by several high-profile Liberals calling on Trudeau to resign and make way for a new leader and prime minister.
The Conservatives’ upset win in the tiny mid-Toronto riding represented a perfect storm scenario for Poilievre’s party. A mixture of national and local dynamics coalesced in Conservatives’ favour in one of the most bedrock Grit seats in the country: a constituency not won by a centre-right party since Mulroney-era cabinet minister Barbara McDougall claimed it for a second time in the free trade election of 1988.
While a Liberal victory still appeared like the most likely outcome heading into election day, the deep unpopularity of Trudeau’s government loomed large over the entire Liberal operation in Toronto-St. Paul’s.
The government’s handling of the Israel-Hamas War and the recent increase in the capital gains inclusion rate rubbed many residents the wrong way in what is largely an affluent riding home to a sizable Jewish community.
The result: many traditional Liberal voters stayed home or bolted to Poilievre’s Conservatives with the aim of sending Trudeau a stern warning. And they succeeded.
Losing a historically Liberal riding at a time when the government’s fortunes continue to plummet represents a full-blown crisis for a party built around Trudeau’s image.
