The stunning Conservative by-election win in Toronto-St. Paul’s last month has plunged Trudeau’s Liberal Party into a nadir and resulting leadership vacuum. The perilous state of the party is only exacerbated by several high-profile Liberals calling on Trudeau to resign and make way for a new leader and prime minister.
The Conservatives’ upset win in the tiny mid-Toronto riding represented a perfect storm scenario for Poilievre’s party. A mixture of national and local dynamics coalesced in Conservatives’ favour in one of the most bedrock Grit seats in the country: a constituency not won by a centre-right party since Mulroney-era cabinet minister Barbara McDougall claimed it for a second time in the free trade election of 1988.
While a Liberal victory still appeared like the most likely outcome heading into election day, the deep unpopularity of Trudeau’s government loomed large over the entire Liberal operation in Toronto-St. Paul’s.
The government’s handling of the Israel-Hamas War and the recent increase in the capital gains inclusion rate rubbed many residents the wrong way in what is largely an affluent riding home to a sizable Jewish community.
The result: many traditional Liberal voters stayed home or bolted to Poilievre’s Conservatives with the aim of sending Trudeau a stern warning. And they succeeded.
Losing a historically Liberal riding at a time when the government’s fortunes continue to plummet represents a full-blown crisis for a party built around Trudeau’s image.
But there is a silver lining for Liberals in this sordid ordeal. The unexpected loss of Toronto-St. Paul’s might be the black swan event that could prompt a seismic shift within the party with far-reaching repercussions.
Already, the party has been thrust into a precarious state; for the first time since he became leader in 2013, Trudeau no longer holds an iron grip over the party’s leadership. While speculation about the prime minister’s political future was not uncommon prior to the by-election loss, in the ensuing days it has turned into high gear.
Former Liberal cabinet ministers John Manley, Wayne Easter and Catherine McKenna have all called on Trudeau to resign. Former B.C. premier Christy Clark has also said Trudeau must go, as have backbench Liberal MPs Wayne Long and Ken McDonald.
These developments pave the way for the prospect of genuine party renewal. Renewal that is sweeping, leaves no stone unturned, and is in the long-term best interest of the party and the country.
Since 2013, the Liberal Party’s brand has increasingly become synonymous with Justin Trudeau. The hopeful, bold, and progressive vision he personified more than a decade ago was a strong fit for the times and offered a sharp contrast to Harper’s Conservatives.
Today, that vision has long passed its best-before date. Canadians are clamouring for wholesale change. But that change could still come from within if Liberals are able to muster up the courage to do two things.
Leadership renewal from outside government
The prospect of a fourth Liberal mandate or strong official Opposition standing is increasingly remote under Trudeau’s leadership. After 11 years as party leader and nearly nine as prime minister, Canadians are decidedly ready for change.
Several senior cabinet ministers are already jockeying to replace Trudeau: Melanie Joly, Chrystia Freeland, Anita Anand, Dominic LeBlanc, Francois-Phillipe Champagne, and Sean Fraser, a relative newcomer to cabinet. Outside of government, former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney and former B.C. premier Christy Clark are kicking the tires on credible leadership bids.
Then-British Columbia Premier Christy Clark arrives at Government House in Victoria, B.C., June 29, 2017. Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press.
Given the deep desire for change across Canada, it won’t suffice to replace Trudeau with a senior cabinet minister closely associated with this government. If Liberals want to telegraph a sense of urgent renewal—and avoid an electoral drumming—they must select a leader not tainted by the Trudeau record.
Carney and Clark are indeed imperfect candidates. But both are sufficiently removed from this government to be given a fair hearing from an electorate clamouring for a new approach.
The timeline for leadership succession could be consequential. With the next election expected in fall 2025, Trudeau must signal his intention to resign within weeks. The prime minister’s swift exit will not only allow ample time for the party to execute a leadership contest, it will also afford Trudeau’s successor a runway to put his or her personal stamp on a government in desperate need of renewal.
Kim Campbell’s summer prime ministership in 1993 is not a scenario federal Liberals want to replicate.
A return to brokerage politics
In 2024, the once-mighty centrist Liberal Party is largely unrecognizable to its pre-Trudeau self. Consciously or unconsciously, the party has driven out its moderate supporters becoming indistinguishable from Jagmeet Singh’s NDP.
Federal Liberals used to be a party of the political centre on economic, foreign, and defence policy; unlike today, they were once defined by unabashed Canadian patriotism. Since the Supply and Confidence Agreement was struck in early 2022, Canadians are increasingly unable to differentiate between Trudeau’s and Singh’s policies.
This brand conflation has become hugely problematic to the party’s traditional value proposition and prospect for a return to its roots as a brokerage party.
Liberal leader Jean Chretien blasts Prime Minister Brian Mulroney on May 5, 1991 in Quebec City, for leading the country into a recession. Clement Allard/The Canadian Press.
A competitive leadership contest and ensuing policy renewal conference could empower Liberals to reclaim the pragmatic, growth agenda implemented throughout the Chretien-Martin era. An agenda that’s desperately needed today given Canada’s well-documented productivity and growth challenges.
The party would also do well to reflect on its history. In 1991, then-official Opposition leader Jean Chretien convened a policy conference in Aylmer, Quebec where Liberals formally disavowed the economic nationalism of the Pearson-Trudeau eras, instead embracing globalization and economic liberalism as remedies to the early 1990s recession.
The economic agenda reached in Aylmer became a blueprint for incredible policy and political success throughout the Chretien-Martin era. Today’s Liberals would be well-served to orchestrate a major policy conference like Aylmer where comprehensive policy reform is on the table.
The party of Wilfred Laurier has always been at its best when seen as relentless reformers willing to take bets on new leaders and bold policies reflecting the public mood of the day. It was this recipe for political success that Liberals shrewdly opted for in 2013 when Trudeau overwhelmingly won the party’s leadership.
Eleven years later, it’s time for the party to emerge from the shadow of the past decade and chart a new path forward in a post-Trudeau era. The “natural governing party’s” future hangs in the balance.
