President Joe Biden’s recent debate performance should leave Canadians with no illusions: another Donald Trump presidency is not only an increasingly conceivable outcome, at this point it may even be likely. Even if Biden manoeuvres the machinations of media and party politics to survive intact as the Democratic nominee come November, an ultimate electoral victory is far from assured for the almost 82-year-old.
The possibility of Trump setting up shop in the Oval Office, then, should come as no surprise. Canada must start preparing now for that familiar yet still monumental challenge.
This comes amidst fraught times for Canada internationally as our relations with China remain a mess, relations with India remain frosty, and relations with our NATO and Five Eyes allies grow increasingly strained following decades of derelict defence spending. That’s not to mention the ongoing scandal of foreign interference complicating our domestic politics.
But come January, if Trump is elected our relations with our closest and most important ally are bound to get worse than all our other problems combined. We are heading for a great foreign policy “Waterloo” of epic proportions and very little can be done to stop it if we carry on the way that we have in the past.
Even now, relations have not been great with the U.S., despite Trudeau and Biden’s naturally friendly dispositions and ideological alignment. From disagreements over the importance of developing gas pipelines to help allies, and in particular Ukraine, to increasing pressure to pull our weight on NATO and security spending, we have been in the president’s “woodshed.”
That pales in comparison to what could be coming. The frostiness of relations between the current prime minister and the former president is legendary, and the two leaders could not be further apart in how they view the world and foreign policy. While Trudeau’s government is about moralizing and virtue signalling Trump is about action, change, and challenging the status quo.
Trump’s foreign policy
Unfortunately for Canada, this is particularly true in the realm of international relations. Trump’s last administration was strongly opposed to illegal immigration, and based on comments in the recent presidential debate is still inclined to close the southern border. Trump Republicans are protectionists in terms of international trade as demonstrated by their withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, negotiations on North American Free Trade Agreement, and trade war with China. Any favour the Trump national security and foreign policy team had for the United Nations ended with COVID-19, and his intention to withdraw from the Chinese-penetrated World Health Organization has been made clear.
Of America’s close allies, Trump’s view is that they are fair-weather friends who rely on the U.S. to foot the bill for their safety, and that if they do not share the defence burden in real terms, particularly in NATO) and NORAD, then they are nothing more than freeloaders. This certainly includes Canada. His likely national security team has deemed Russia Europe’s problem, Iran a nuclear threat to be deterred and contained, North Korea a partner to be muscled into a deal, and China the principal threat to U.S. long-term national security interests and a country to be contained to the “first island chain.”
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau takes part in a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump during the G7 Summit in Biarritz, France, Aug 25, 2019. Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press.
The previous Trump administration was focused proactively on Israel and the Middle East as well as the Indo-Pacific, and that is not likely to change. The former president viewed Cold War-era arms control agreements with suspicion, and with some justification given Russian cheating was legendary. Trump believes these agreements hold back the U.S. in its dealings with China, North Korea, and Iran and that they are anachronisms to be consigned to the rubbish heap of history, as witnessed by his withdrawal from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty of 1979 and Open Skies.
While in office, Trump moved forward quickly on a nuclear strategy geared to enhanced deterrence, new weapons, and warfighting while planning the withdrawal or drawdown of longtime conventional U.S. force deployments in Afghanistan, Syria, and even Germany. He rejected the Obama administration’s Iran nuclear deal and showed an inclination to rely on deterrence to deal with what his national security team viewed as containable or limited regional threats. Trump was inclined to use force including the assassination of terrorist leaders such as Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi of the Islamic State and Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ elite Quds Force. Trump’s ultimate goal according to former National Security Adviser Robert C. O’Brien is a prosperous U.S. built on peace through strength.
Canada’s response
For Canada and Trudeau, a second Trump administration could be expected to challenge Canada in a variety of old and new ways that we need to be ready for. Namely, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and official Ottawa must restrain their natural urges and play nice with what could be the next U.S. administration or face the wrath of Trump.
As much as Trump respects a central casting figure, Trudeau is going to need more than great hair, fancy socks, and “daughter diplomacy” to keep the relationship on track. For starters, and this may prove to be the biggest challenge, he will have to resist the impulse to indulge in his own political best interests for the sake of the country’s best interests.
Trump’s election is in November and Trudeau’s, if he stays on, is a year and a half or so away. If the Republicans win, Trudeau and team will no doubt look to exploit Canadians’ ill feelings towards Trump to their domestic advantage. That has certainly been the playbook to date, with Trudeau looking to score points off Trump every chance he gets and using his name to take swipes at Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. While this may be good wedge politics, it is a cynical gambit that would only deteriorate Canada’s standing with the potential incoming administration. There’s no justifiable reason to make the long-term job of steadying U.S.-Canada relations harder for the short-term gain of getting oneself re-elected.
President Donald Trump, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexico’s President Enrique Pena Neto, at the USMCA signing ceremony, Nov. 30, 2018 in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP Photo.
On the trade front, a Trump win would mean gearing up our negotiating team and preparing in a constructive way for prolonged disputes as we will be in for tough discussions—particularly if Trump does not see us pulling our weight on defence and security. And does anyone seriously expect the Americans to be satisfied with our most recent pledge of reaching 2 percent defence spending by 2032?
On migration, the rising number of illegal immigrants are liable to be kicked out of the U.S., or at the very least are going to certainly be looking north to Canada where a more favourable welcome might await, with our porous and lax border. We need to be prepared to enforce our borders and points of entry, safeguard against threats, and ensure waves of migrants don’t settle here ahead of law-abiding immigrants who meet Canada’s economic requirements.
Canada’s interest in the UN and other global institutions, international treaties on climate change, and niche arms control will be viewed as irritants and offside of being a team player. Overall, lecturing and moralizing from the sidelines when we refuse to pay our fair share towards global stability will result in economic punishment and further marginalization.
The good news is that, despite the serious challenge it would represent, another Trump presidency could be the jolt we need to shake us from our self-obsessed fugue. We are the masters of our own destiny here. Canada must do more than just pay lip service to NORAD modernization, Five Eyes, and NATO, or, as Trump’s advisers like Elbridge Colby have said, we could easily be replaced in the G7. This would be a disaster. There are certainly better and more eager allies like Australia and South Korea that are waiting in the wings and who want to play a real leadership role in world affairs.
Whether Trump wins or not is still up in the air, but as long as it is a live proposition, Canada must start preparing for the possibility now. Even still, whether Trump or Biden is ultimately victorious in November, one thing should be obvious: we have grown complacent and neglected the increasingly important politics that begin outside our own border. First and foremost, that means we must reinforce our relationship with America, regardless of who is in charge. Secondly, it is time to once again prove our worth on the world stage and regain the influence and leadership we have for too long taken for granted.
