At the recent NATO meeting in Washington, Canada faced a torrent of abuse from its allies. Ottawa has been underspending on defence, indeed even cutting its spending by a billion dollars a year for three years, and it could not say when, if ever, it might meet the NATO goal of 2 percent of GDP on defence and 20 percent of that spending on equipment. Pressed hard, Prime Minister Trudeau finally told the world that Canada would honour its pledge to NATO in 2032. That is eight years and at least two elections hence!
But the prime minister did make an announcement that gratified some listeners. Canada, he said, was considering the purchase of up to twelve submarines with an under-ice capability. Trudeau earlier had mused on Canada securing nuclear subs to augment the Royal Canadian Navy’s (RCN) fleet, but this idea seemed to have been abandoned. As the official press release put it, Canada is “committed to exploring options for renewing and expanding our submarine fleet….”
Canada has no capacity to construct submarines, and the country’s shipyards are struggling to build destroyers, icebreakers, and supply ships. This means that submarines will need to be purchased from European or Asian shipyards with experience in building them. (There will be a certain irony if the RCN, having fought against U-boats in two world wars, ends up with German submarines.)
As of Trudeau’s announcement, let us be clear, no submarine design has been selected, and naval officers are said only to have been engaged in seeking the best models for the RCN. Given Canada’s broken defence procurement system, this is unlikely to be a quick process. The RCN may soon know what it wants but the bean counters will rule as they always do, and orders most likely will not be placed for at least three to five years.
Few expect that the Liberals will be in power in 2027, and if the Conservatives do form the government, it is worth noting that Pierre Poilievre has refused to commit to a date for Canada to meet its 2 percent pledge. New subs may not be an idea the Tories will accept.
If an old or new government does decide to continue with a submarine program, it is certain that a new conventional sub will cost at least $1 billion, many millions more to make it strong enough to operate for long periods in the Arctic, and millions more for its torpedoes, missiles, other weapons, radars, and electronic systems. The costs involved all but guarantee that 12 submarines are a pipedream—the RCN will be lucky to get four to six. Trudeau did not offer a timetable in his remarks, but it is highly unlikely that even a single submarine would be ready to go to sea before the early 2030s and the last by the 2040s.
Then there is the problem of manning a fleet of underwater vessels. The RCN has four Victoria-class boats now. These subs, purchased used from the Royal Navy, have not worked well, are constantly undergoing expensive repairs, and scarcely leave the dock. In other words, the crews have relatively little sea-going experience, the RCN is short of sailors already, and experienced mechanics and skilled technicians are in even shorter supply. Each sub will need more than sixty officers and sailors, and there must be at least three times that number on leave, on courses, or in training to support each crew.
There is little point in acquiring new submarines if there are no crews to sail in them, and with the fifteen new destroyers planned and just beginning construction, the senior service’s personnel needs must be a top priority. That need will not be met until the Canadian Armed Forces’ problems with recruitment are fixed, and that problem has bedevilled the military for decades. (I served on a Department of National Defence Special Committee in 1995 that advanced recommendations to improve recruiting, but nothing changed. Nothing has improved in the three decades since.)
So what did Trudeau mean when he said that Canada was looking at acquiring a fleet of a dozen submarines? Not much. He and his government will be very unlikely to be in power when any order is placed, let alone when finished subs are delivered. The RCN today does not have enough personnel to operate its little squadron of mostly inoperable submarines, and the recruitment process is so messed up that the situation could be even worse by the 2030s when the first new submarine might be ready.
Very simply, the prime minister’s remarks meant nothing. They were not a promise, not a pledge, only a way, he hoped, to tamp down the criticisms from NATO’s members, to quiet the grumblings from the RCN’s ranks, and to possibly redress unfavourable recent polling on his government’s foreign policy.
Some Canadians might believe he meant that Canada will get new submarines, and we can all hope that he did. But this government does not believe in deliverables for defence. A Globe and Mail editorial on July 15 put it well: “If words were weapons, Canada would be armed to the teeth. If platitudes were platoons, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would not have spent much of last week making excuses for his government’s failure to rebuild this country’s military.”
Unfortunately, I have a sinking feeling this is exactly right and that, despite the drubbing from our allies, nothing will change.