The Week in Polling: Canadians think foreign interference has likely happened, historic byelection results, and Conservative policies are resonating with voters
News21 September 2024
Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre makes a statement in the House of Commons. Patrick Doyle/The Canadian Press.
Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre makes a statement in the House of Commons. Patrick Doyle/The Canadian Press.
This is The Week in Polling, your Saturday dose of interesting numbers from top pollsters in Canada and around the world, curated by The Hub. Here’s what we’re looking at this week.
A majority of Canadians think the Chinese, Russian and U.S. governments have interfered in Canada’s elections
Source: Research Co.
The security of Canada’s electoral processes from foreign interference, particularly regarding the nomination campaigns of Liberal MP Han Dong and former Conservative MP Kenny Chiu, has become a hot-button issue in Canada’s public discourse.
The preliminary report of the Public Inquiry into Foreign Interference in Federal Electoral Processes and Democratic Institutions, led by Justice Marie-Josée Hogue, uncovered that foreign interference did, in fact, occur in Canada and, in at least one case, “affected who was elected to Parliament.”
Polling now suggests the majority of Canadians agree with the findings of the preliminary report, believing that it is likely that China, Russia, and even the United States of America have interfered in Canadian electoral processes in this century.
Furthermore, nearly two-thirds of Canadians think there has been “definite” or “probable” foreign interference in federal elections. More than 50 percent say the same about federal nomination races.
This week marked the beginning of the second round of the public inquiry, which looks at whether Ottawa will be able to protect elections from foreign interference in the future.
Aiden Muscovitch is a student at the University of Toronto studying Ethics, Society and Law. He has served as both The Hub’s Assistant Editor and Outer Space Correspondent.
Violent crime in Canada has seen the greatest increase compared to all other crime categories in the last 10 years of recorded incidents, rising 30 percent in a decade.
Violent crimes are all those carried out or threatened against the body of another, such as assault.
According to analysis by The Hub, in 2023 there were 1,427 such crimes committed per 100,000 people, compared to 2013, when the rate was 1,095.
The top violent crimes in 2023 were assault not using weapons or resulting harm, uttering threats, and assault employing weapons or resulting in harm.
Just over half (55 percent) of Canadians want violent crime to be a top priority for government decision-makers, and even more (78 percent) believe Canada’s justice system has been too lenient with those found guilty of such crimes, according to a 2023 Leger survey.
Repeat violent offenders being offered bail is a key concern of those surveyed (79 percent). In 2022, 29 percent of homicides were committed by someone on some form of release, such as house arrest or parole.
Canadians’ concerns about crime have prompted a look into which specific crimes are increasing throughout the country, which are decreasing, and which are remaining stagnant.
Violent crime’s increase was followed by property crime and “other Criminal Code violations.”
Last year, property crimes (including theft) were far more numerous, but were only 7 percent higher than 2013 rates.
In 2023, property crime rates were more than double violent crimes. Violent crimes, meanwhile, were more than all driving, drug, other federal statutes, and Youth Criminal Justice Act violations combined.
Like property crimes, “other Criminal Code violations” were also 7 percent higher than 2013 crimes in the same category. These include the use of weapons, administration of justice, disturbances to the peace, sexual exploitation, and illegal gambling.
Youth Criminal Justice Act violations by criminally alleged young people ages 12 to 18, declined the most, down 89 percent relative to 2013.
Impaired driving violations were down 19 percent from 2013, although changes in legislation likely affected the collection of data in this category.
Within the violent crime category, rates of extortion, human trafficking, and non-consensual distribution of intimate images rose the most relative to a decade earlier.
Extortion—defined in the Criminal Code as making threats, accusations, menaces, or violence often to receive money—rose the most, by 429 percent from 6 to 34 incidents per 100,000 people.
Although significantly fewer, rates of human trafficking saw violent crime’s next greatest relative increase at 395 percent, from 2013’s 0.22 incidents to 2023’s 1.09 incidents per 100,000 people.
The making and distribution of child pornography (within the “other Criminal Code violations” category) had the third-highest recorded increase. In seven years between 2016 (when this data started being collected) and 2023, it rose a whopping 288 percent from 10 to 40 incidents per 100,000 residents.
Canada’s 2019 National Strategy to Combat Human Trafficking included a $75 million investment to curb the crime it described as most acutely affecting women, through measures including national awareness campaigns, an assessment of the immigration process, and community-sourced tech development to track human trafficking on social media.
In February, the federal government introduced the Online Harms Act (Bill C-63) in part to force online platforms to remove child pornography and other harmful content within 24 hours of posting. However, the bill has faced criticism for its other components which some say will limit free speech.
In 2023, the property crime of theft under $5,000 had the highest rate. Mischief followed (property destruction and damage), and then fraud, which is defined as the illegal obtaining of property, money, valuables, or services by deceit.
Kiernan is The Hub's Data Visualization Journalist. He was previously a journalism fellow for The Canadian Press and CBC News, where he produced for Rosemary Barton Live, contributed to CBC’s NewsLabs and did business reporting. He graduated from the School of Journalism at Toronto Metropolitan University with minors in global…...
Kiernan is The Hub’s Data Visualization Journalist. He was previously a journalism fellow for The Canadian Press and CBC News, where he produced for Rosemary Barton Live, contributed to CBC’s NewsLabs and did business reporting. He graduated from the School of Journalism at Toronto Metropolitan University with minors in global politics and history.