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Alicia Planincic: The immigrants most valuable to the Canadian economy are now the most likely to leave

Commentary

Dr. Bijoy Menon in Calgary, Alta., Wednesday, June 22, 2022. Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press.

In each EconMinute, Business Council of Alberta economist Alicia Planincic seeks to better understand the economic issues that matter to Canadians: from business competitiveness to housing affordability to living standards and our country’s lack of productivity growth. She strives to answer burning questions, tackle misconceptions, and uncover what’s really going on in the Canadian economy.

Immigration isn’t just about attracting the best to Canada; it’s also about ensuring they choose to stay.

Last spring, Statistics Canada released a report on the emigration of immigrants (that is, immigrants to Canada who end up leaving the country). Widely publicized at the time was the seemingly large number of immigrants who did so over the time period studied (1982-2017). But there’s another big finding from the report: the people most likely to leave are those who offer the greatest potential value to the Canadian economy. While immigrants may not choose to leave right away, the results over 20 years are striking.

Individuals with high incomes and education levels are among the most likely to leave Canada after immigrating here. Specifically, immigrants who have a doctorate (PhD) upon arrival have a one in three chance of leaving within 20 years, while those with a master’s degree have a 29 percent chance of emigration.

Graphic credit: Janice Nelson. 

Altogether, the most highly educated immigrants are about twice as likely to leave Canada as those with a high school education or less. Individuals with a bachelor’s degree are more likely to stay than those with advanced degrees, but there’s still a one in five chance they’ll leave within two decades.

What’s more, individuals selected for their ability to start or grow a Canadian business are also likely to leave. In fact, investors who immigrated to Canada are the most likely of any group to end up leaving (more than 40 percent within 20 years). And entrepreneurs are not far behind (nearly 30 percent).

Finally, it’s also important to note that when immigrants end up leaving, Canada is likely to lose out on future talent as well. Both immigrants admitted as children, and Canadian-born children of immigrants, tend to have higher levels of education in valuable fields, and higher median incomes at 25-years-old and up. In other words, if their parents leave Canada they take another generation of potential economic value with them.

All that said, there’s still a lot we don’t know. This report doesn’t tell us if retention of skilled immigrant groups has gotten better or worse over time; or how it compares with other countries. We do know, however, that economic opportunity is a large driver of the decision to emigrate. Immigrants follow opportunity, and those who can leave will do so if they find better opportunities abroad.

A version of this post was originally published by the Business Council of Alberta at businesscouncilab.com

Alicia Planincic

Alicia Planincic is the Director of Policy & Economics at the Business Council of Alberta. She regularly provides insight and analysis on the Canadian economy, public finances, labour markets, equity and social mobility, and public policy.

Rudyard Griffiths: Fight antisemitism. Go buy a book

Commentary

Protesters gather outside an Indigo store in Toronto, November 30, 2023. Chris Young/The Canadian Press.

Canada excels as a creator of books, particularly fiction writing. Our authors are read around the world and loved by their publics. Canadian works of fiction show us to ourselves and, for the most part, are shorn of cultural hyperbole, political correctness, and many of the other things that make our current popular discourse seem vapid, nasty, and serially disappointing. In sum, there is much to be genuinely proud of when it comes to Canadian books and fiction writing. It is one of the few areas of our common culture we haven’t screwed up—until now.

Today, Canadians are being encouraged to join a “DAY OF ACTION” against the country’s largest bookseller, Indigo Books, and its CEO owner Heather Reisman. It is part of an ongoing and sophisticated intimidation campaign called “Indigo Kills Kids.” The campaign site has already been ordered to blocked once, after a court injunction. Its proponents—the usual mix of social media agitprop types, BDS campaigners, and so-called “peace” activists—charge Ms. Reisman is involved in “the oppression of Palestinians and…complicity in Israel’s genocide in Gaza.”

Her indelible sin is to provide scholarships to former Israeli Defense Forces (IDF soldiers) who have no family support in Israel. The same foundation aids the Druze and Ethiopian communities—orphans and widows of terrorist attacks. All of these activities are charitable under our laws and admirable in their support for noncombatants and groups clearly in need.

Yet, as we know in post-October 7th Canada, no good deed that even has a hint of a connection to Israel can not go unpunished. Here Ms. Reisman is alas no stranger to antisemitic invective. Her flagship bookstore on Bay Street in Toronto was vandalized last November with red paint (e.g. a blood libel) and posters accusing her of “Funding Genocide.” It was, as the Friends of Simon Wiesenthal Center for Holocaust Studies president, Michael Levitt, correctly identified at the time, “a vile antisemitic attack.” Toronto police initially charged 11 people with “hate-motivated” mischief and seven of the accused are now awaiting trial.

Today, once again, likely dozens of Ms. Reisman’s stores, normally places of book browsing, author talks and quiet coffees, will be sites of antisemitic hate and intimidation.

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