One of the largest security summits in Europe, the Warsaw Security Forum, took place earlier this month in Poland’s capital. As someone who was previously involved in setting Canada’s foreign policy, it was helpful to hear directly from those leading the fight in Europe against Russian aggression, as well as insights into the next wave of foreign policy and security challenges the West will all be facing.
Sharing a border with Ukraine and neighbours to many of NATO’s frontline states, host nation Poland welcomed foreign and defence ministers from almost the entirety of NATO’s eastern flank. The two-day event also saw the appearance of Ukraine’s new foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, who was just appointed four weeks ago.
So what were my three takeaways from the event?
Fatigue and fear this fall?
This November will see Russia’s illegal and immoral war in Ukraine reach the one-thousand-day mark. Despite Ukraine’s continued resistance, as well as the rhetorical argument made by many world leaders about “continuing the fight,” two key concerns were clear: Western fatigue and the outcome of the U.S. presidential election this November. Leaders continued to advocate for applying pressure on NATO members who have resisted allowing Ukraine’s long-range weaponry to target Russian military assets.
It was also inspiring to hear from those who have been on the ground in Kyiv and elsewhere saying, “Bet on Ukraine.” Ukraine’s young and skilled population in the fields of scientific research, robotics, and artificial intelligence are preparing the foundations for a strong future. But if Ukraine doesn’t have the power to keep the lights on, all the skills of those talented people won’t matter.
Poland’s prominence in NATO
It’s easy here in Canada to paint the entire NATO alliance with the same brush when it comes to the wider commitment to the fight and the collective challenges we all face.
However, each member is different in the level of threat it faces and how it chooses to respond. Poland’s leadership and its rapid military mobilization is a special case worthy of our attention. With a defence spending target of 5 percent of GDP, its military spending is the largest within NATO (in relative terms) and it has drastically increased the size of its military, at a time when it has also absorbed countless refugees and migrants from Ukraine.
Poland also faces a unique challenge on its eastern flank from Belarus autocrat, Alexander Lukashenka. While we in Canada hardly see this on our nightly news, Lukashenka has weaponized desperate migrants admitted into Belarus, intentionally placing them on NATO and the European Union’s frontline border to cause crisis and chaos. Poland has had to triple its border force to ensure its safety and security. Sending a little love and recognition for the Poles, who are on the frontline, is an important thing to do from our perch across the Atlantic.
Energy security is as important as defence
One pleasant surprise—from a Canadian perspective—was a half-day focus on energy security and its importance to the continent. The further east you go in Europe, the more existential the question around energy security gets. The Canadian Government should take note and respond with concrete actions.
Central and Eastern Europe have done well to virtually wean themselves off Russian resources in a very short period. At the same time, many of these countries are still dependent on coal to power their economy and heat their homes. For them, natural gas is more than a transition fuel. While they do want to reduce their emissions, gas is far superior to burning dirty coal, which currently makes up about 60 percent of Poland’s fuel mix.
Indeed, I was questioned by many participants about why Canada can’t get our natural gas to their markets. When it comes to importing LNG to these countries, they make it clear that Canadian gas would be attractive—Poland alone imports 76 percent of its gas from either the Baltic Pipe or LNG terminal.
But Canada’s inability to be willing or able to supply this market has pushed these customers to the United States’ shale gas boom, or to the Gulf. More than once, Prime Minister Trudeau’s 2022 statement that there is no “business case” was rejected out of hand by those at the conference. Sadly, it appears that that ship may be sailing for many potential takers of Canadian gas who have instead sought long-term contracts and certainty elsewhere.
Looking ahead
By the time the next Warsaw Security Forum rolls around, we will have had a U.S. presidential election, likely a Canadian general election, and hopefully greater progress in Ukraine gaining back as much of its territorial integrity as possible. The political and defence landscape countries must contend with will likely look a lot different.
As a Canadian at the forum, there was a great deal of interest in what might happen in our election and what the position of a new Conservative government might be towards defence spending, NATO, and the export of our natural resources. Our resources are still seen as a geopolitical asset that should be put to good use around the world. But markets and partners need certainty and availability. The bottom line is no matter what, Canada must up its game beyond nice words and symbolic gestures.