Hub Exclusive: Canadian Conservatives are cooling on Trump

The 2024 U.S. presidential race has, at times, seemed like a car wreck, yet Canadians are captivated by it like few other events. Much like drivers compelled to slow down and look, a substantial portion of Canadians can’t help but watch this election unfold. This isn’t passive curiosity but a deep-rooted interest, with most hoping to see Democratic nominee Kamala Harris emerge victorious over Donald Trump, the Republican nominee.

Interestingly, more Canadian Conservatives now appear to be warming up to a potential President Harris as well, with a portion of them reconsidering Trump from just over six months ago.

Back in March, many Conservatives appeared conflicted, with 41 percent supporting Trump, 37 percent preferring Biden, and 23 percent undecided. I noted this apparent cognitive dissonance previously at The Hub when I wrote that despite this support, Conservatives felt that a Trump return to the White House would harm Canada. Now, however, seven months later, 44 percent of Conservative voters express a preference for Harris over Trump (42 percent).

This shift underscores a recalibration within Canada’s Conservative base, suggesting a reconsideration of priorities as they weigh the potential impacts of each candidate’s policies on Canada’s future.

Canadians generally view Harris, the current vice president, favourably. Nearly a third (32 percent) are “excited” about her candidacy, and another 30 percent feel “comfortable” with her as a choice. Only a minority of Canadians feel negatively, with 10 percent “frustrated” and 8 percent “angry.”

Impressions of nominees

This support for Harris cuts across age groups: 22 percent of Canadians aged 18 to 34 report feeling “excited” about her, and 34 percent feel “comfortable.” The level of enthusiasm for Harris rises with age, with 26 percent of those aged 35-49, 39 percent of those 50-64, and 44 percent of older Canadians saying they are “excited” about her candidacy.

Among Canadians who would vote for the Liberal Party, support for Harris is overwhelming, with 56 percent “excited” and 31 percent “comfortable.” Harris is also well-regarded by supporters of the New Democratic Party (NDP), with 51 percent “excited” and 32 percent “comfortable.” Among Conservative supporters, however, feelings about Harris are more mixed. While 20 percent feel “excited” and another 25 percent “comfortable,” there are also significant negative responses, with 17 percent “frustrated” and 20 percent “angry.”

In contrast, former president Trump evokes a predominantly negative response among Canadians. Nearly half of respondents (46 percent) say they feel “angry” toward Trump, with another 19 percent expressing “frustration.” Positive feelings are rare, with only 20 percent of Canadians viewing Trump favourably—10 percent “excited” and 10 percent “comfortable.” Trump’s unpopularity spans all demographics; 36 percent of Canadians aged 18-34, 39 percent of those aged 35-49, 53 percent of those aged 50-64, and 59 percent of older Canadians report feeling “angry” about him.

Views of the nominees across age groups

These strong emotions are shaping Canadians’ expectations for the U.S. election outcome. Nearly two-thirds (64 percent) say they hope to see Harris win on November 5th, compared to just 21 percent who favour a Trump victory, with another 15 percent undecided.

This distribution has changed little since March 2024 when the Democrats had an entirely different nominee and 61 percent of Canadians preferred then-frontrunner Joe Biden to Trump’s 18 percent. The overall sentiment remains steady across genders, age groups, and regions, with most Canadians favouring the Democratic candidate.

Even major events—including the sitting President’s decision not to seek re-election after a disastrous debate, Harris’s elevation as the Democratic nominee, and two assassination attempts on Trump—haven’t shifted Canadian public opinion significantly.

Expected winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election

As Canadians closely watch the unfolding 2024 U.S. presidential race, their engagement goes far beyond mere fascination with American political drama. For many, this election feels like a pivotal moment that will directly impact Canada’s future, influencing critical areas like foreign policy, trade relations, climate action, and economic stability. This election serves not only as a window into American values but also as a mirror for Canadians, reflecting their own pressing issues, hopes, and anxieties about what lies ahead for both countries. With less than a month remaining until election day, uncertainty remains high regarding which candidate—Harris or Trump—will prevail.

For Canadians, however, the stakes are clear, and so are their expectations. While personal opinions on the candidates vary, nearly half (48 percent) of Canadians believe Harris will emerge victorious, while only 26 percent anticipate a Trump win, with another 26 percent uncertain.

This expectation aligns with the broader sentiment Canadians hold toward each candidate: where Harris represents continuity with Canadian priorities, such as a cooperative approach to climate policy and smoother trade relations, Trump’s return to the White House poses potential disruptions, with his well-known “America First” stance and unpredictable policy shifts.

With just weeks to go before the election, the tension of expectation is palpable. Canadians are likely to find out soon whether their predictions—and hopes—align with the final outcome decided by their neighbours to the south, though they know well from past elections that in politics, expectations don’t always match reality.

Findings in this op-ed are based on a sample of 1,500 adult Canadians conducted online. The survey was in the field between September 11st and 19th, 2024. While online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error, the corresponding margin of error for a probability sample of this size is +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error will be larger when looking at sub-populations.