As the next federal election approaches and the Conservatives continue to perform strongly in the polls, political analysts are increasingly predicting that Pierre Poilievre will unseat Justin Trudeau, win a majority government, and become the 24th prime minister of Canada.
If Poilievre wins, he will face the immediate and critical task of assembling a cabinet. Confident in their leader’s trajectory, Conservative MPs are no doubt already measuring Parliament office drapes, while pundits speculate about what a Poilievre cabinet may look like.
The Hub spoke to seasoned Conservative politicos, including former members of the Poilievre leadership campaign and former advisors to former prime ministers Stephen Harper and Brian Mulroney, to get a better sense of a potential Poilievre cabinet, and what the Conservative leader will likely consider when building the first Conservative government in a decade.
What message would Poilievre seek to send through his cabinet?
When he was elected, Prime Minister Trudeau made gender parity a key part of his cabinet, appointing half men and half women. When asked why he made this choice, he famously simply said, “Because it’s 2015,” sending a progressive feminist message and foreshadowing a government focused on diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI).
But Ginny Roth, former director of communications for the Poilievre leadership campaign, current partner at Crestview Strategy and a Hub contributor, believes Poilievre will set a tone that’s the opposite of Trudeau’s “top-down, virtue signaling message.”
“I think that Poilievre will take a bottom-up approach, to say, ‘I want to really reflect all different types of Canadians from different walks of life and different perspectives.’ And that could mean when you think about caucus members, where they’re from, how old or young they are, their career background, their socio-economic backgrounds, the ridings they represent.”
Roth, who believes Poilievre will “very likely” reduce the number of ministers, noted that a smaller cabinet would also help Poilievre send a message about his belief in limited government.
“[It would send] a message in terms of values and a signal-based message about the size of government,” she said.
A small, merit-based cabinet?
The Trudeau cabinet currently has a whopping 38 members, each earning a $299,900 salary, receiving a car allowance, and having the ability to travel in first and business class.
Globe and Mail columnist Andrew Coyne has described the “enormous expansion” of cabinets in recent decades, noting that the federal government now has “easily the largest in the democratic world.”
“A cabinet of 39 is not a serious decision-making body. As cabinets get larger, moreover, the ministers get smaller. In a cabinet of 12, every minister is a player. As you pass 20, they start to blur together. By the time you near 40, they look like ants,” he wrote.
Ian Brodie, former chief of staff to Prime Minister Harper and a current professor of political science at the University of Calgary, said it would be wise for Poilievre to start with a small cabinet, as cabinets inevitably are likely to grow over time.
“Cabinets have a tendency to grow,” he said. “There are lots of reasons for that, so everybody’s advice is to start with the smallest cabinet you could possibly have. And I think that is probably in the 24-25-26 range.”
While Harper’s first cabinet in 2006 had only 26 members, it grew to 39 members by the end of his third term.
But Geoff Norquay, former senior policy adviser to Prime Minister Mulroney, former director of communications for Harper, now a principal at Earnscliffe Strategies, noted that having more cabinet positions means the ability to appease more MPs.
“The more jobs that can be handed out…the more positions there are to be filled, the happier your caucus will be,” he said.
If he wins a strong majority, Poilievre could have upwards of 200 MPs in his caucus, with all of them eyeing a cabinet posting.
Charles McMillan, former senior policy adviser to Mulroney and current professor of international business and public policy at York University’s Schulich School of Business, told The Hub that “the size does not matter,” explaining that what’s important is the quality of the people in the cabinet.
When it comes to merit, while Poilievre has spoken out against DEI ideology and in favour of merit, his current shadow cabinet (which could give us a hint into his actual cabinet) is diverse. Both of his deputy leaders belong to prominent Canadian diasporas— the Sikh and Jewish communities.
But Roth believes Poilievre will not make any DEI appointments to his cabinet, and that ministers who happen to be women or racial or religious or sexual minorities will be at the cabinet table solely based on merit.
“I think [the immutable] characteristics [of shadow cabinet members] were always incidental,” she said. “There’s a reason you haven’t heard Poilievre dwell on people’s gender and race. He just doesn’t care. He really believes in meritocracy.”
Brodie, however, argued that “Canadian cabinets have always been built since 1867 on diversity considerations,” and said, “I don’t think you could ever put that out of your mind.”
He added that diversity can go beyond immutable characteristics and can include factors like one’s experience, skills, and perspectives.
Who would Poilievre appoint to his cabinet?
The Conservative opposition caucus, made up of 119 MPs, has a shadow cabinet of 55.
Current prominent shadow cabinet members include deputy leaders Melissa Lantsman and Tim Uppal, Andrew Scheer as House leader, Jasraj Singh Hallan as shadow minister for finance, Dr. Stephen Ellis as shadow minister for health, and Michael Chong as shadow minister for foreign affairs, Raquel Dancho as shadow minister for public safety, and Adam Chambers as shadow minister for national revenue.
While some of these figures are likely to find themselves in senior cabinet posts, Brodie told The Hub that in a post-election, a hypothetical Poilievre cabinet would not necessarily look much like the current shadow cabinet, given that so many new MPs would be joining the caucus.
According to polling aggregator 338Canada, if an election were held today, Poilievre would win 217 seats, meaning the Conservative caucus could grow by almost 100.
“There will be a big [influx] of new talent,” Brodie said. “That means that the current composition of the shadow cabinet is probably not a very good indication of what the future Poilievre cabinet will look like.”

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre walks with members of his caucus after holding a press conference on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, April 16, 2024. Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press.
Political watchers would love to see an actual shortlist with names, but Roth cautioned against spending too much time speculating about who will get the top jobs.
She did say that Poilievre will likely prioritize communication skills above other attributes, given that clear communication is part of what has made him such a successful politician. Look no further than his motto “Axe the tax. Build the homes. Fix the budget. Stop the crime,” repeated in every TV spot.
“He can take complicated ideas and explain them in very plain language and very direct terms. His cabinet will need to be able to do that too, particularly if they want to be politically ambitious and bring Canadians along with them,” explained Roth.
Regionality and past governing experience
While many Canadians frown on career politicians, individuals with past government experience may be paramount in a future Poilievre cabinet.
Brodie said Poilievre will seek individuals “who have some kind of governing experience,” instead of solely relying on people “whose only experience is in opposition” to be part of his first cabinet.
Apart from Poilievre, there are currently five Harper-era cabinet ministers in the Conservative caucus: Kerry-Lynne Findlay, Michael Chong, Michelle Rempel Garner, Rob Moore, and Tim Uppal. There are also former provincial ministers who have been nominated as federal candidates, like Parm Gill from Ontario and Ellis Ross from B.C.
Norquay echoed Brodie on the need for individuals with governing experience and said some of the individuals listed above should “absolutely” be appointed to cabinet, especially since there will inevitably be a number of people who have never been in government. He said inexperienced people can bring risk.
“When a prime minister comes to office after a long time in opposition, he is going to have to appoint a number of people to cabinet that are new to Parliament and/or have little public policy experience,” he said. “That is an issue of maximum risk for a prime minister, because individuals may look great on paper, but it’s only by doing the job that you can evaluate their skills, their approach, their competence.”
“I can think of some situations where individuals in the Mulroney era who were appointed to cabinet, [who] look really great on paper, but we’re completely disastrous as ministers,” he said.
McMillan added that having experience outside of the House of Commons should also be paramount for key positions.
“You need a very strong finance minister, probably from Bay Street, meaning he understands public markets,” he said.
Norquay, Brodie, and Roth all said that regional representation will also play an important role in building Poilievre’s cabinet.
Brodie said Poilievre should try to have representation from all 10 provinces around his cabinet table, while Norquay noted that Quebec especially, “due to its special status in the country, will expect a reasonable, equitable proportion of cabinet seats.”
The current Liberal cabinet includes ministers from nine of the 10 provinces. There are no ministers from Saskatchewan, as the Liberals do not hold any seats there. There are also no cabinet ministers that hail from the territories. The final Harper cabinet had ministers from nine provinces, with no ministers from Newfoundland, and one minister from Nunavut.
Which ministers could Poilievre abolish?
One of the reasons for the large size of the current Trudeau cabinet is that the prime minister has created several boutique positions tailored around his government’s agenda.
There are now two ministers on the Indigenous file, a separate minister for mental health, as well as a “Minister for Women and Gender Equality and Youth” and a “Minister of Diversity, Inclusion and Persons with Disabilities.” At one point, the Liberal cabinet also had a “Minister of Middle Class Prosperity”.
Trudeau also revived the dormant deputy prime minister position, which did not exist from 2006 to 2019, after being around since the seventies.
Roth said Trudeau’s cabinet positions, such as “diversity and inclusion,” seem like “very obvious areas for shrinking cabinet and the number of departments.”
The former director of communications also said she’d like to see some cabinet positions renamed to more simple terms, which would be in line with Poilievre’s principle of using “plain Anglo-Saxon words.”
Others cautioned against a more slash and burn approach.
Brodie said that Poilievre should actually “start at the other end” and figure out the positions he really needs before proceeding with cutting positions.
He noted that there are challenges that come with reducing the size of the cabinet. Eliminating positions can mean having to reorganise departments, which can delay your government’s agenda.
Norquay, meanwhile, said that Poilievre will likely want to have his own ideological cabinet positions.
“Mr. Poilievre will come to office with a particular Conservative agenda, so he may need to or want to do the same thing.”
In Ontario, Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative government has a “Minister of Red Tape Reduction,” an “Associate Minister of Auto Theft and Bail Reform,” and an “Associate Minister of Small Business.”
So, could the Minister of “Axing the Tax” or “Defunding the CBC” be getting the keys to his or her new office in coming months? Only time will tell.