Kicking off a new bi-weekly Hub series, leading pollster and CEO of Ipsos Global—Public Affairs Darrell Bricker spoke to editor-at-large Sean Speer about how the recent election in the United States could impact polarization in Canada, growing concerns around immigration, and how Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has managed to form a coalition of working- and middle-class Canadian voters.
Here are three takeaways from their conversation.
1. Canadians are growing more divided
Darrell Bricker observes that while Canadian politics is becoming more polarized, it remains less extreme compared to the United States. Historically, Canadians’ focus on national unity, particularly the Quebec question, has suppressed ideological divisions. However, the 2011 and 2015 federal elections marked a shift toward ideological contests, with Stephen Harper and Justin Trudeau exemplifying opposite ends of the political spectrum.
Bricker notes that this division is still a relatively new phenomenon in Canada. Demographic and geographic shifts further fuel this change, as Western Canada’s growing population reshapes the political landscape, reducing the power and influence of the traditional Laurentian Consensus, a political, business, academic, and media elite in Toronto, Ottawa, and Montreal. This shift parallels developments in the U.S., where population growth in the South and West has reshaped political strategies. Immigration-driven suburban expansion has become an important factor in both our countries. Bricker emphasizes that while polarization is intensifying, Canada’s political spectrum is still less divided compared to the entrenched partisanship in the U.S. However, this emerging ideological divide presents new challenges and opportunities for Canadian political parties, particularly the Conservatives, who currently dominate the “change” narrative, as 75 percent of Canadians express a desire for a new government.
2. Immigration is now a top concern
Bricker highlights that immigration is now one of Canadians’ top political concerns, ranking just behind healthcare and inflation. The pollster has noted a shift in public discourse from managing immigration processes to debates and concerns over the actual scale of immigration. Unlike the U.S., where immigration is highly polarized between Republicans and Democrats, Canadian political parties are generally aligned on this issue. But Bricker suggests this may change if external events, such as Trump’s proposed border policies, create a sudden influx of migrants into Canada. Bricker dispels the notion that foreign-born Canadians automatically support more liberal immigration policies. Instead, he says, they align politically with the economic class and regional communities they live in, often voting based on local issues rather than their immigrant status.
3. A working-class and middle-class conservative coalition is forming
Bricker says there is a significant political realignment happening in Canada, where we are witnessing the working- and middle-class voters shift towards the federal Conservative Party. This mirrors trends in the U.S. and other Western democracies. Bricker attributes this shift to a growing sense among the middle class that their aspirations for economic mobility are being stifled. Their dissatisfaction stems from stalled generational progress and a perception that governments have failed to deliver for the middle class. This economic frustration is coupled with cultural alienation, as voters feel disconnected from the values of political elites, who they believe prioritize identity politics over practical concerns. To these voters, Canada is “broken” both on an economic and cultural level.
Bricker notes that Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have capitalized on these sentiments by presenting themselves as the party of change. To maintain and expand this coalition, he suggests the Conservatives balance their economic interests with critiques of identity politics. Bricker sees this as an opportunity for the Conservatives to align their policies with the priorities of suburban, car-commuting voters, who represent a key demographic in the political realignment underway in Canada.
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