It’s that time of year to bring back one of The Hub’s favourite traditions: giving our readers a head’s up on what they can expect in the year to come. As for how well our contributor’s crystal balls work, well, check out last year’s predictions and judge for yourself. Looking ahead, here are some can’t-miss predictions for 2025.
Donald Trump’s picks highlight how ineffective he’ll be
By Richard Shimooka, a Hub contributing writer and a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute
Since his election in November, Donald Trump has exerted a remarkable level of influence for a president-elect. He’s made a number of major policy announcements and world leaders are already attempting to court him and his staff.
Yet we should be a bit circumspect about his ability to deliver many of his more dramatic promises, as his political power will be less than in his first term and will further ebb over time. First off, due to being term-limited, second-term presidents are regularly referred to as “lame ducks.” The political machine tends to look past them towards the next cycle.
However, President-elect Trump’s recent decisions are likely to magnify these challenges. He seems to have learned the wrong lessons of his first term—instead of bringing in implementers who could see his policy agenda through, he’s instead chosen individuals for their personal loyalty. Their lack of governing experience will become apparent over the coming months, diminishing their effectiveness. The potential for broad and indiscriminate cuts to services, as promised by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy through their Department of Government Efficiency, will further diminish his overall presidential power.
Second, Trump’s legislative circumstance is not very strong. Even though the Republicans hold both houses in Congress, it’s an extremely weak governing majority; in the House of Representatives, the GOP may only be able to suffer three or so defections out of 435 seats. The recent debt ceiling discord is likely to be indicative of what the coming four years will look like.
That’s not to say that the danger to Canada of Trump’s actions can be minimized—presidents have far more discretionary power on foreign relations, where executive actions can have devastating consequences. Furthermore, his staff often showed significant policy entrepreneurship to achieve their aims in Trump’s last term. But overall, expect his policy actions this go-round to be unfocused and lack permanence.
Human trafficking will become a major public policy issue
By Amal Attar-Guzman, The Hub’s content editor, content manager, and podcast producer
In the spring, I had the opportunity to write about the potential future spouse of the prime minister, Anaida Poilievre, her heritage, and the impact Latin American Canadians are having on Canadian politics. One thing that has stuck with me since was her focus on the issue of human trafficking.
It has proved to be a topic with increasing relevance in Canada. From the ongoing trial of two men charged with human trafficking resulting in the death of the Patel family as they tried to cross the Canada-U.S. border to a Scarborough man recently charged with sex trafficking of teen girls in Eastern Ontario, the issue is, sadly, gaining prominence.
As a UN report has detailed, Canada’s growing numbers of temporary migrants are at risk of abuse and exploitation, and these workers are particularly vulnerable to the threat of human trafficking.
While known cases of human trafficking in Canada number in the hundreds, there has been a 395 percent increase in reported cases here from 2013 to 2023. Many more cases are certainly un- or underreported.
Some provincial governments are grasping the growing seriousness of the issue. In 2023, Saskatchewan invested $1.2 million to support survivors, and Alberta just recently reallocated over $5.5 million to combat human trafficking.
The Senate has also taken notice. S-263, which aims to update the National Strategy to Combat Human Trafficking and address the harms of the practice, just had its first reading this month. While it is too early to say whether this bill will come to pass, the fact that the Senate is talking about the issue is significant. It is especially significant given the rise of femicides and gender-based violence in Canada and its interconnectedness with human trafficking as survivors are disproportionately at risk.
Now with President Trump’s mass deportation threat, there has been speculation of the potential for mass migration into Canada from the U.S.. If what has been occurring at the U.S.-Mexico border is any indication, we should not be surprised to hear more reports in 2025 of the human trafficking of migrants and vulnerable persons into Canada from the U.S. as a result.
