Shortly after being sworn in as prime minister in 2015, Justin Trudeau visited the Pearson Building in Ottawa, home of Canada’s foreign service, and declared to a jubilant crowd of sycophantic bureaucrats: “Canada is back!” Inspiration devoid of delivery—a formulation that came to characterize much of his foreign policy record.
Although a definitive assessment of his governance will take some time to sort out, Trudeau’s announcement that he will step down as prime minister in March is an opportunity to evaluate one of his government’s clear major failures: adequately representing Canadian interests abroad.
One commendable exception to his otherwise disappointing record was the successful renegotiation of NAFTA—now the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA)—despite the fulminations of a bombastic Donald Trump. Most key elements were salvaged while some, like dispute settlement provisions, were actually strengthened. Trump claimed the result was a complete victory for the U.S.—a point he seems to have forgotten since his recent re-election as he threatened Canada (and Mexico) with 25 percent tariffs on all exports, an action that would fundamentally violate the agreement he signed and which Canada should forcefully challenge.
In particular, the Canadian government should serve notice that it will retaliate with tariffs of its own beginning, just to get Trump’s personal attention, with Florida orange juice. His comments about Canada becoming the “51st state” are as intemperate as they are offensive. They have been rebutted firmly by both Prime Minister Trudeau (“not a snowball’s chance in hell”) and Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre (“Canada will never be the 51st state. Period.”)
As to whether Canada came ”back” as of 2015, the record is otherwise dismal. Simply put: we have become less relevant and less effective on most global issues, underscoring the weakness of aspirations versus performance.
As Yuan Yi Zhu aptly highlights in The Hub’s pages, Trudeau was seen by some globally as more performative and non-serious, focused more on grandstanding, or virtue signaling and pontificating on issues like gender equity—most notably with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni which caused the Italian media to label him as a “buffoon.”
But the damage goes beyond merely tarnishing Canada’s reputation. Critical relationships have been left to wither, and Canada’s international standing and influence were taken for granted. The world stage primarily served two purposes for the Trudeau government: a place to play out the country’s domestic political dramas, and a pulpit from which to preach his progressive ethos. What should have been prioritized—security, alliances, and increasing Canada’s ability to project power—was if not outright dismissed then at least neglected.
National security is a vital component of foreign policy and yet our decrepit military has languished pitifully for more than a decade. Responsibility to defend our Arctic against increasing incursions by China and Russia has become a charade. We rely exclusively and embarrassingly on the U.S., something we literally take for granted. This is one criticism that Trump gets right.
Though we have little capacity to contribute militarily, Canada has been a consistent voice of support for Ukraine. We helped lead an international coalition to divert frozen Russian funds in support of Ukraine’s rehabilitation.
Relations with key allies and adversaries have been a mishmash of folly and missed opportunity. The prime minister’s visit to India was an unmitigated disaster featuring a cringe-worthy fashion show by Trudeau and his family wearing a bewildering array of Indian costumes. Substantive relations have deteriorated ever since. Allegations that Indian authorities had been complicit in the murder of a Sikh separatist living in Vancouver did not help. With some justification, the Liberals were seen by New Delhi as playing “footsie” with Sikh extremists in Canada to advance domestic political support. A complete reset is sorely needed.
Relations with China foundered similarly when Chinese authorities detained the “two Michaels” on dubious espionage charges which served as a cover for retaliation over Canada’s cooperation with the U.S. Department of Justice’s attempt to apprehend Madam Meng Wanzhou, a senior Huawei executive residing in Vancouver. While Meng was luxuriously ensconced in a plush, multi-million-dollar mansion, the two Michaels spent time in much less salubrious conditions. This sordid episode flat-lined bilateral relations ever since.
Key European and Asian allies of Canada did not fare much better. When Germany’s chancellor and Japan’s prime minister visited Ottawa, they both requested access to Canadian LNG exports—energy being an acute crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Trudeau bluntly told them that there was “no business case” for LNG development in Canada. He sidestepped the fact that whatever limitations there might be, the real impediments to investing and developing Canadian energy resources were restrictive regulations resulting from the government’s obsession with climate change—a classic example of national interest being thwarted by global aspirations and self-righteous posturing. Reverting to form, Trudeau suggested instead discussions of cooperation on hydrogen.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau visits the Golden Temple in Amritsar, India on Wednesday, Feb. 21, 2018. Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press.
Intense devotion to climate change also led to an ever-increasing carbon tax in Canada, one that failed abysmally to reduce carbon emissions. Conversely, the Biden Administration, with whom Trudeau had a cordial but generally unproductive relationship, succeeded in reducing carbon emissions without imposing any carbon tax.
Canada failed yet again to gain a seat on the UN Security Council. Self-declared virtue is not a sufficient rallying cry for support from this sublimely feckless organization.
As investment, both foreign and domestic, dried up, Canada’s productivity continued to sag, as did our competitiveness. None of which helps our trade prospects. The value of our dollar is at an all-time low and there is increasing talk of an incipient recession.
The reckless gamble for much more immigration was not properly analyzed beyond a sheer numbers game, and yet it put huge strains and costs on housing, and on health and education services in Canada simultaneously fueling inflation. From a foreign policy perspective, it also intensified security gaps along our border with the U.S., another pet peeve of President-elect Trump.
It is a sad litany. When a few pages from the prime minister’s resignation speech blew off the podium on a cold winter day, it symbolized the way in which Canada’s global reputation was blown away by poorly executed policies and excesses of faddish aspirations that failed to serve the national interest and made us less relevant and less influential in world affairs.
A resolute pragmatic change of course would be most timely.
