This is The Week in Polling, your Saturday dose of interesting numbers from top pollsters in Canada and around the world, curated by The Hub. Here’s what we’re looking at this week.
Eight in ten Canadians approve of the prime minister’s resignation
Source: Pallas Data
Earlier this week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he had decided to step down as prime minister and Liberal Party leader after his party elected a replacement. Seventy percent of Liberal supporters approve of Trudeau’s resignation compared to 88 percent of Conservative voters, 76 percent of NDP voters, and 88 percent of Bloc Québécois voters.
Over half (51 percent) of the 81 percent of Canadians who approved of his resignation “strongly” approved, while only 19 percent disapproved at all.
Another poll conducted after his resignation also found that a majority of Canadians (nearly 60 percent) are “satisfied” with his decision, with over 40 percent of them being “very satisfied” with it. Only 19 percent of Canadians are dissatisfied with it.
Trudeau resigned after the Liberal party’s polling hit a 157-year low of 16 percent. Along with his resignation, Trudeau prorogued Parliament until March 24.
80+ percent of immigrants think Canada has accepted too many immigrants and international students
Source: Pollara
In a poll of people who arrived in Canada in the last 10 years, 82 percent said the federal government has allowed too many immigrants and international students into the country, without the necessary plans for adequate housing, infrastructure, or job opportunities.
The federal government originally planned to admit 485,000 permanent residents in 2024 and 500,000 in 2025 and 2026. In the third quarter of 2024, about 3 million non-permanent residents lived in Canada. At the end of 2023, Canada had over 1 million international students with active study permits.
The Liberals are attempting to claw back on their immigration policies. In October of last year, the government adjusted its immigration plan to reduce the number of permanent residents permitted into Canada from 500,000 to 395,000 in 2025, 380,000 in 2026, and 365,000 in 2027. They also plan to reduce the number of temporary workers permitted into the country to five percent of the total population and cap international student permits at 437,000, a 10% reduction from the 2024 target of 485,000 permits.
Only 27 percent of Republicans identify with Reagan
Source: RMG Data
Sixty-one percent of Republican and Republican-leaning voters identify as Donald Trump Republicans, while 27 percent identify as Ronald Reagan Republicans. Meanwhile, about 54 percent of Republicans who were old enough to have lived through the Reagan era now consider themselves to be Trump Republicans. In addition, 73 percent of 18 to 34-year-old Republicans consider themselves to be Trump Republicans.
Another recent poll found that more than 85 percent of Republicans or Republican-leaning Independents are optimistic about Trump’s second presidency. Trump is also viewed more favourably among Americans than either the sitting President Joe Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trump’s policy agenda appears to be becoming more mainstream among all Americans, not just Republicans. About 60 percent of Americans think his proposals to bring the U.S. military to the U.S.-Mexico border and individual tax cuts should be top priorities for 2025. Additionally, 50 percent of Americans think Trump’s proposal to cut government spending should be a top priority. Just over 40 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s plans to increase deportations and drill oil.
A majority of Liberal voters support a merger between the Liberal Party and the NDP
Source: Research Co.
A majority of Canadians—55 percent—who voted Liberal in the 2021 federal election support a full merger of the Liberal and New Democratic parties. About 40 percent of NDP voters also support the merger.
If the Liberal Party and the NDP were to merge today, the combined party would have 178 seats, enough to form a majority. If Trudeau were to lead the hypothetical party, 27 percent of Canadians would vote for it in the next election. If NDP leader Jagmeet Singh was the leader, the combined party would attain 29 percent of the vote.
In an Abacus Data vote share poll conducted after Trudeau’s resignation, the Liberal party stood at 20 percent and the NDP was at 18 percent. Taken together, their 38 percent would not even beat the Conservatives’ whopping 47 percent.
Aiden Muscovitch is a student at the University of Toronto studying Ethics, Society and Law. He has served as The Hub's Assistant Editor and writes The Week in Polling. He has also worked as an intern for Conservative Member of Parliament and Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs Michael Chong.
