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Don Kerr: The Liberals utterly failed to control Canada’s population growth. Here’s what the next government can do better

Commentary

A new Canadian citizen Marilou holds her son during a Canada Day citizenship ceremony in Winnipeg, Man., July 1, 2024. David Lipnowski/The Canadian Press.

The Liberal government didn’t just turn on the taps, they cranked them open—and were way too slow to close them

In an end-of-year interview, Immigration Minister Marc Miller acknowledged that he and the government could have acted sooner to reverse its unsustainable immigration policy. His admission was notable but still too late.

The most recent population data released by Statistics Canada seems to bear him out on this issue. In 2024, the data currently available suggests that we will again lead the G7 in terms of our rate of population growth, by a distance, and be among the fastest-growing populations in the OECD.

This shouldn’t have been a surprise. When Miller assumed the role in mid-2023, the most up-to-date demographic data showed that Canada’s population was growing at a rate that was more than two-and-a-half times the historical norm. In 2022, for instance, Canada’s population grew for the first time by over 1 million people in a single 12-month period, with a rate of population growth (+2.7 percent) that was dramatically higher than the historical average of about 1 percent.

Also available to his office would have been up-to-date information from Statistics Canada indicating that this pace of growth was accelerating into the first quarter of 2023. Canada’s population eventually grew by over 3.2 percent in 2023.

Two primary factors were largely responsible for this growth: Canada was setting records with regard to both its permanent immigrant targets as well as a dramatic growth in the number of non-permanent residents (such as student visas, temporary foreign workers, or asylum seekers).

Documents obtained through an access-to-information request by the Canadian Press demonstrated that as far back as 2022, senior Immigration officials were warning decision-makers that rapid population growth was outstripping the available supply of housing and putting unreasonable stress on health care and settlement service providers.

Yet the federal government waited until January 2024 to enact changes to its immigration policy. The first was to control the number of study permits issued to international students. The largest part of this reform was to be felt in the third quarter of 2024 with fewer students entering Canada. In addition, a series of changes were gradually introduced throughout 2024 to make work permits more restrictive.

Notwithstanding these policy changes, the number of non-permanent residents in Canada has continued to climb through to the third quarter of 2024. While the number of international students was down slightly (-4.5 percent) over the July 1st to Oct. 1st period, this was more than offset by a growth in the number of work permits issued (+4.4 percent) and asylum seekers (+8.1 percent). Many students after completing their education are not leaving the country, but shifting to work permits under the post-graduation work permit program.

All told, before Miller became Immigration minister in mid-2023, the percentage of Canada’s population that were non-permanent residents was 5.5 percent, whereas by Oct. 2024 it was 7.3 percent—up by over 850,000 in roughly a year and a half.

The current federal target of 5 percent that the minister set back in Mar. 2024 would merely bring this level back down close to where it was when he first took over this file. Historically, the percentage of non-permanent residents in Canada had hovered in the 1-2 percent of population range.

As for permanent residents, in spite of the mounting evidence, the government didn’t revise its 2024 immigration target, with an anticipated 485,000 immigrants. This means that the country is set to hit another record in terms of the total number of permanent immigrants to be settled in a single calendar year.

One would think that back in early 2023, the government would have at least temporarily lowered this target until it managed to get the number of non-permanent residents and population growth under control. As of Oct. 2024, Canada appears to be well on the road to breaking its past record on immigration having already received more immigrants over the first three quarters of 2024 than it did over the first three quarters of 2023.Having said this, it is always possible that the government will not meet this target, or for that matter, it could possibly surpass it. Statistics Canada will be releasing its final numbers on immigration for the full calendar year 2024 within the next couple of months.

Statistics Canada currently has a real-time population clock that estimates Canada’s population through to the present. While these estimates are not exact, involving some extrapolation of incomplete data, this does provide the best estimate as to where our population currently stands. As of New Year’s Day 2025, Canada’s population reached 41,564,000.

Figure 1. Graphic credit: Janice Nelson. 

Although this estimate is preliminary and has yet to be finalized by Statistics Canada, this is likely close to what our population size would be if in fact the federal government meets its 2024 targets on both immigration and NPRs. In working with this estimate for Jan. 1st, 2025, this implies an annual population growth of about 780,000 persons in 2024, or a growth rate of 1.9 percent (see Figure 1). While down from the astronomical heights of 2023 (3.2 percent), this is still close to twice the historical norm for Canada.

In my view, it is almost an understatement to suggest that the federal government “opened the taps,” but then failed to close them quickly enough. As I have argued elsewhere, in policy terms, a steady, gradual upturn in population growth is far better for planning future labour force, housing, and infrastructure needs.

With this in mind, the government moving forward might be well advised to develop a population policy, in order to avoid this sort of situation in the future. The Canadian population would be well served by a government that could quickly accommodate unexpected challenges while maintaining a predictable and relatively stable rate of population growth.

Don Kerr

Don Kerr is a demographer who teaches at Kings University College at Western University. From 1992-2000 he worked in the demography division at Statistics Canada. His past research has focused on social demography, population estimates and projections, environmental demography, and the socioeconomic and political consequences of demographic change in Canada.

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