In a previous column for The Hub, I explored the “core” Liberal Party base, estimating it to be surprisingly small (only 7 percent of the electorate), when we strip away more casual or wavering supporters. Now, inspired by the demographic segmentation tactics once used by Harper’s Conservatives—who gave their voter personas names like “Dougie”—the hardworking, blue-collar white guy who was a big sports fan, drank beer and Timmy’s coffee, and loved roaming around his local Home Depot—I wanted to explore what typical Liberal voter personas looks like today.
The team at The Hub asked if I could create similar fictional but data-driven snapshots of today’s typical Liberal Party supporter. Drawing on recent Abacus Data surveys and using regression modeling, I built three “personas” that I think capture the type of people still leaning Liberal, even after the party’s appeal has greatly narrowed over the past year. Each persona illustrates a real slice of the Grit voter coalition, highlighting distinct life circumstances and policy priorities that bring them under the red tent.
First, I set out to identify the best demographic, regional, and socio-economic factors that predict whether someone will vote Liberal. My model revealed certain attributes as predictors. Region stood out first: Ontario and Quebec emerged as prime locations for Liberal votes, alongside, to a lesser extent, Atlantic Canada. Living in an urban rather than rural environment, especially the downtown of a major city, also correlated positively.
Education levels also mattered a great deal. Individuals with a bachelor’s degree or higher were more inclined to support the party. My analysis further showed that “middle” income brackets, roughly $50,000 to $100,000 annually, aligned with higher Liberal support. Women are more likely than men to be Liberal Party supporters, as are those who identify as part of a visible minority group.
Marital status, especially being single or widowed, raised the odds slightly, as did older age. Liberal supporters are now more likely to be older—a big change from when Trudeau won his majority in 2015 with the help of Canadian youth.
Finally, union membership—particularly in the public sector—proved to be another predictor.
Today, the person most likely to vote Liberal in Canada is a woman living in Quebec, holding at least a bachelor’s degree or higher, and working in either the public sector or in technology. She is also a member of a public sector union. She is single and never married.
Building on this generic profile, I created three personas that I think best describe typical Liberal supporters in Canada today. Each is fictional (including their stories and lifestyle), but their profile is backed by my survey data.
Lora-Lynn: A 73-year-old widow living in Scarborough, Ontario
Lora-Lynn is a senior and widow whose family has lived in Canada for many generations. She resides in a single detached home in Scarborough, where she raised her family and was married to her late husband for 42 years. Her family did well, and she lives comfortably in retirement. She plays pickleball with friends, golfs at the Scarboro Golf and Country Club, and spends a lot of time with her four grandchildren.
Lora-Lynn spends her mornings watching the news, worrying about climate change and the capacity of the health-care system. She supports the Liberals partly because they emphasize preserving public services that seniors like her rely on—especially universal health care, which she views as vital. Although she is not wealthy, she is financially comfortable enough to prioritize a strong social safety net over tax cuts. She despises Donald Trump and worries about what his administration means for Canada.
A woman speaks to the crowd during a demonstration calling for justice for the death of George Floyd and all victims of police brutality, in Montreal, June 7, 2020. Graham Hughes/The Canadian Press.
Sophie: A young, unmarried lawyer living in downtown Montreal
Sophie is a 29-year-old lawyer practicing in downtown Montreal. She holds a law degree from the Université de Montréal and works at a mid-sized firm, focused on employment law. She typifies the younger, well-educated city dweller with progressive leanings and concerns about social justice.
Sophie wants to start a family but is focused on advancing in her career and saving up enough to buy a home. Although she is not raising children and has no mortgage, she feels the pinch of rising rents and also wants a government that is proactive on environmental and climate change issues. The Liberals’ dedication to climate action, gender equality, and cultural diversity aligns with her worldview. She loves trying new foods, traveling, and yoga.
Tony: A 46-year-old male teacher in North Vancouver
Tony is a 46-year-old math teacher in North Vancouver, British Columbia. His parents immigrated to Canada from Hong Kong when he was 16. He’s married with one son, owns a townhouse not too far from the school where he teaches, and is active in his union.
Tony is a keen runner, taking part in two or three marathons a year. He loves soccer and tries to bring his son to as many Whitecaps FC games as he can afford. He wants a government that balances economic pragmatism with social commitments, including mental health initiatives, educational investments, and green infrastructure.
Tony is worried the cost of living in the Lower Mainland will make it impossible for his son to stay in the area. He’s also concerned about climate change. Therefore, he supports the carbon tax, seeing it as the most effective way to reduce emissions.
People line Pender Street in Vancouver, B.C., on Sunday February 18, 2018. Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press.
Are Lora-Lynns, Sophies, and Tonys enough for the Liberals to win?
The short answer is no. Although there are a fair number of Lora-Lynns, Sophies, and Tonys in Canada, their combined profiles leave major gaps in the voters the Liberals would have to reach to stay in power.
They all share higher levels of education, live in urban or suburban areas, and enjoy relative financial security. This homogeneity doesn’t reflect the real or perceived struggles of many Canadians today—particularly working-class individuals, young men, and those without a university degree. These other groups are often more worried about making ends meet than about the broader progressive agenda the Liberals have championed over the past decade.
The Liberal Party’s challenge is exacerbated by a growing scarcity mindset. A significant share of once-Liberal-leaning voters no longer believe the Liberals speak to their immediate concerns. Inflation, housing affordability, and personal safety worries have many Canadians turning away from lofty ambitions or social policies that don’t clearly address everyday life. With only about four in 10 Canadians even open to voting Liberal, the party must grapple with how to reassure these voters who feel unmoored in uncertain economic times that they are focused on the issues that directly impact their quality of life.
Lora-Lynn’s secure retirement, Sophie’s professional career path, and Tony’s stable public-sector job reflect a narrower, comfortable middle that isn’t struggling quite as acutely as those hit hardest by current economic conditions. While each persona underscores why the Liberals continue to appeal to some—those valuing public services, climate action, and a moderate social safety net—they have been unable to capture the harder-hit segments of the electorate who want immediate relief on housing, groceries, and job security.
To win over these voters, the Liberals’ next leader would have to show genuine empathy for struggles his or her supporters don’t necessarily experience firsthand. It would mean prioritizing policies that protect and expand basic needs—things like affordable housing initiatives, tangible cost-of-living relief, and stronger job opportunities for people who lack post-secondary credentials.
People who are worried about feeding their kids or paying next month’s rent need to feel heard, valued, and supported. If the next leader can connect with these realities in a convincing way, they might broaden their appeal beyond Lora-Lynns, Sophies, and Tonys, forging a coalition large and durable enough to put the party back into contention.
But, even then, its path to building such a coalition is undoubtedly far more difficult than in any election it has faced since its majority victory in 2015.
