‘It raises a whole host of odd things’: Parliamentary expert Philippe Lagassé on whether Carney could go into the next election with Trudeau staying on as PM

This weekend, the Liberal Party will select their next leader and the successor to Prime Minister Trudeau. But will likely winner Mark Carney decide that Justin Trudeau should remain as PM during the next election? During an unprecedented trade war with the Americans, will he wipe the slate clean by appointing his own team, or keep Trudeau’s cabinet negotiating with Trump’s team? And when is that rumoured election going to actually take place?

The Hub’s managing editor Harrison Lowman reached out to Philippe Lagassé, parliamentary and Westminster expert, Carleton University associate professor, and the Barton Chair at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, to get answers.

HARRISON LOWMAN: When is the earliest an election could be called? 

PHILIPPE LAGASSÉ: He [Carney] could declare it at any point. As soon as he is appointed prime minister, he could recommend a dissolution. So that’s really almost entirely up to him.

It’s really just a question of whether or not he wants to give himself some time to put policies in place. He’ll have to make a decision about whether or not he wants to hold the throne speech to highlight his program. Does he think that it’s in his interest to try and maintain confidence or win it in some way, or does he look at the polls and say, “Oh, my God, the NDP are at 10 percent, I better go now.”

He may still give himself, you know, a week or two to demonstrate that he’s standing up and Donald Trump and he’s got a program in place. So there’s some fluidity here.

HARRISON LOWMAN: Can the Governor General make Carney prime minister if he doesn’t seemingly have the confidence of the House of Commons?

PHILIPPE LAGASSÉ: Yes. So it’s important to realize that the office of the prime minister is separate and distinct, formally speaking, from anything that’s happening in the Commons. So, by constitutional convention, we expect the prime minister to either have confidence or be hoping to secure it.

And it’s that hoping to secure a bit that’s the key here. He may tell the Governor General, I’m either going to test it by meeting the House when it’s summoned, or I’m going to attempt to secure it after an election. So, there’s nothing that prevents him from being appointed prime minister if the confidence of the House is in doubt at this point.

HARRISON LOWMAN: Even if the NDP says clearly, “We want to bring this guy down” and the Conservatives say the same? So there’s a flexible definition in terms of “is seeking” the confidence of the House that the Governor General then responds to?

PHILIPPE LAGASSÉ: Imagine a scenario like we had with Christy Clark in B.C., where she’s returned with like a one-seat plurality, and she stays on as premier, not because of anything in particular in the rules, but just that she’s still the premier, and the presumption is that she’s going to try and win back confidence.

When it becomes clear that she no longer has confidence, she requested the dissolution and was turned down. But nonetheless, first ministers technically are in office and can be appointed regardless of what’s happening in the legislature.

HARRISON LOWMAN: Can Carney become prime minister without a seat?

PHILIPPE LAGASSÉ: Yes. The office of prime minister is separate and distinct from the office that members of parliament hold in their legislative capacity. He could be appointed to the Senate, which is possible, but I think would strike a lot of Canadians as quite odd and I don’t think it would help his position.

If I were advising him, I’d say, “You’re better off not being in Parliament at all than being in the Senate and being prime minister, because that would strike a lot of people as quite gauche.

HARRISON LOWMAN: Okay, let’s say Trudeau resigns, does his cabinet resign with him?

PHILIPPE LAGASSÉ: Technically, yes, but there’s a bit of fluidity. You can retain your ministerial portfolio during a transition. What I suspect, though, is new prime ministers, or even prime ministers that are returning after an election tend to want to stage a fairly important show—that they have a new government, or that their ministry is coming back in.

So I anticipate when Carney has to become a privy councillor, swear-in at Rideau Hall and all that, he’ll also bring in his new cabinet. Many of those ministers are going to be the same. They won’t necessarily have changed, but they’re going to make a show of it, simply because it’s a way of saying, “We are different, even if most of the people around that table are the exact same people.”

HARRISON LOWMAN: What’s more politically advisable for the Liberals: that Carney becomes PM, gets a clean slate and the trappings of the office and Trudeau is in the rearview mirror…or Trudeau stays on and Carney doesn’t have to be seen as leading his predecessor’s team?

PHILIPPE LAGASSÉ: I think the polling clearly indicates that Carney being appointed PM is the more politically advisable option.

Some people would say that the shifts in the polls are simply a result of Trump, but I don’t think that’s the case. When you actually track the numbers, the uptick occurs following Prime Minister Trudeau’s resignation and the beginning of the Liberal leadership race. So this is not purely a Trump phenomenon. This is a change phenomenon at the head of government. That really rests on whether or not Carney says, “Okay, I think my best course of action is to cement myself as prime minister and get that in people’s minds.”

But then it raises a whole host of odd things. He’s not in Parliament. His ability to communicate and head the government and answer questions would be hampered for some time.

I would say to the Liberals, “Do you want to be supported in the Commons by a party that is now down to 10 percent?” I strongly anticipate that they’ll call an election unless they have already been speaking to the NDP, and the NDP is so spooked by the polling numbers that they’ll be willing to support the government for many, many more months.

HARRISON LOWMAN: Is there a world in which Carney goes into the election without ever becoming prime minister? Trudeau stays on. He seeks the election call from the Governor General. Can you give us a sense of what that would look like?

PHILIPPE LAGASSÉ: I think it would be disastrous for the Liberals. The prime minister has indicated he’s going to resign. If you want to run an election as Trudeau’s replacement, the last thing you want is to have Trudeau still holding the office of prime minister while somebody else holds the office of Liberal leader.

So it’s possible, but the reality is this whole notion of change and uptick in support for the Liberals is predicated on the idea that Carney is going to be the one in charge, not that Trudeau is still going to be sticking around. Although never say never.

HARRISON LOWMAN: Will there ever be a moment in these two scenarios we just discussed where Canada will not have a prime minister?

PHILIPPE LAGASSÉ: No, that is actually the Crown’s responsibility. The Governor General’s first responsibility, under our conventions of a responsible government, the governor general must ensure that there’s always a prime minister in place.

And the reason for that is that the Crown must act on the advice of the prime minister. So, there must be a prime minister in place to proffer advice.

HARRISON LOWMAN: If we are in the midst of an election during this trade war, are our politicians’ abilities hindered to any extent when it comes to responding to these tariffs?

PHILIPPE LAGASSÉ: No because they would be considered an urgent matter, and therefore the prime minister and ministers’ full powers are still in place to deal with urgent questions of public policy, particularly those that affect everyday Canadians. But, clearly, it’s not an ideal situation because many ministers are going to be campaigning and not fully focused on the matter at hand.

…If Carney chooses not to go into an election, and he thinks he can get the NDP to back him on the premise that this is an “emergency.” They’d say, “We therefore need you to keep us in power for a few more months while we deal with this.” This is something we can’t ignore as a possibility. Then it would be kind of an all-hands-on-deck type of scenario, and you would likely see a throne speech that would outline very forceful language about how Canada is going to respond.

HARRISON LOWMAN: Final question, and I’m being a bit cheeky here. If Carney is sworn in next week and the election was called immediately and he lost, wouldn’t he then be the shortest-serving prime minister in Canadian history?

Elections have to be 37 to 51 days. Sir Charles Tupper served for 68 days. Would Carney then be making history as the shortest-serving prime minister?

PHILIPPE LAGASSÉ: I think it all depends on the exact timing he calls the election since he’s got to compete with Tupper. But he would either be one or two, I suspect.

This interview has been edited and condensed.