In a recent episode of The Hub’s Bricker & Speer podcast, Sean Speer, editor-at-large at The Hub, spoke with Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Public Affairs, to discuss Mark Carney’s decisive victory in the Liberal leadership race, the implications for the upcoming federal election, and the challenges Carney may face as Canada’s next prime minister.
Here are three key takeaways from their discussion:
- The Liberal Party is willing to put maintaining power over ideological purity: Carney’s victory reflects the Liberal Party’s pragmatic approach to winning elections, prioritizing power over ideology. The low voter turnout and unified support from the Liberal caucus and cabinet signaled a clear preference for Carney. Bricker says Carney’s disavowal of key Trudeau-era policies like the carbon tax and capital gains hike highlights the party’s focus on electoral success rather than ideological consistency.
- Carney’s international expertise is an asset, but his political inexperience is a liability: Carney’s international experience and reputation as a steady hand are key strengths, particularly when it comes to managing Canada’s relationship with the U.S. But his lack of charisma and political experience could make it difficult for him to connect with voters on a personal level. Carney’s campaign will likely focus on portraying Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre as a “mini-Trump,” to appeal to voters wary of the American president’s influence.
- Governing successfully during the trade crisis could define Carney’s election campaign: Carney’s best electoral strategy may be to focus on governing effectively today and addressing Canada’s immediate trade challenges. Forming a “wartime cabinet” with high-profile candidates could enhance his credibility and demonstrate his ability to lead during an emergency. The timing of the election is a critical decision.
Carney’s decisive victory and the Liberal Party’s pragmatism
Mark Carney’s overwhelming victory in the Liberal leadership race (winning 85.9 percent of the vote) did not come as a surprise to Bricker, having predicted this outcome earlier. Bricker noted that the unified support from the Liberal caucus and cabinet signaled a clear preference for Carney as the party’s leader. However, the race ended in low voter turnout, with just under 152,000 participants (40 percent of members) taking part, following technical difficulties.
Bricker emphasized that the Liberal Party’s decision to back Carney was driven by pragmatism rather than ideology.
“The Liberal Party is about power and about obtaining power and using that power to achieve the Liberal Party’s ends,” Bricker said. He argued that Carney’s victory reflects the party’s focus on winning elections, rather than adhering to a specific ideological agenda.
Bricker also pointed out that Carney’s disavowal of key parts of the Trudeau government’s progressive agenda, such as the carbon tax and capital gains tax increases, further underscores the party’s pragmatic approach. While some may interpret this as a shift back to the centre, Bricker cautioned against reading too much into the leadership race.
Carney’s campaign strategy and the Trump factor
As Carney prepares for the upcoming federal election, Bricker outlined what could be the key elements of his campaign strategy.
One of Carney’s strengths, according to Bricker, is his ability to position himself as a competent and mature leader capable of navigating Canada through challenging times, particularly in its relationship with the United States under the Trump administration.
However, the pollster also highlighted a potential vulnerability for Carney: his lack of charisma and political experience. Unlike Justin Trudeau, who exuded personal charm and warmth, Carney is seen as more of a technocrat.
“He’s not somebody who can speak effectively in sound bites. He’s not somebody who can whip up a crowd,” Bricker said. This could make it difficult for Carney to connect with voters on a personal level, especially during a high-stakes election campaign.
Bricker also pointed out that Carney’s campaign will likely focus on portraying Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre as a “mini-Trump,” emphasizing Poilievre’s perceived resemblance to the U.S. president. This strategy, Bricker argued, could appeal to voters who are wary of Trump’s influence on Canadian politics.
The challenges ahead: governing vs. campaigning
Bricker emphasized that Carney’s best campaign strategy may be the act of governing itself. By demonstrating competence and effectiveness in addressing Canada’s immediate challenges, Carney could build momentum heading into the election.
However, Bricker also noted that Carney’s recent handling of questions about his past role as chair of Brookfield Asset Management revealed a potential vulnerability. Carney’s response, which was seen as evasive and reminiscent of Trudeau, could undermine his image as a new kind of leader.
Bricker also discussed the possibility of Carney forming a ‘wartime cabinet’ by bringing in high-profile candidates like former Quebec premier and Progressive Conservative leader Jean Charest and former B.C. premier Christy Clark. Such a move, Bricker argued, could enhance Carney’s credibility and demonstrate his ability to reach across the aisle and lead a strong, capable team during a time of crisis.
Finally, Bricker addressed the timing of the upcoming election. While some speculate that Carney will call an election as early as March 17, Bricker suggested that there may be merit in delaying the election to allow Carney more time to govern and build his reputation.
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