With the Liberal leadership race concluded and a new prime minister in place, attention is now shifting to the upcoming federal election campaign. The Canadian political landscape has undergone a significant transformation in recent months. At the start of the year, the Poilievre Conservatives held a commanding 16-point lead over the Trudeau Liberals. By March, however, the race has tightened to a virtual deadlock.
The election is expected to centre on key issues such as tariffs, the economic impact of Trump-era policies, and broader concerns about the economy. A familiar debate, however, has re-emerged: national unity.
The threat of breakup these days, though, has moved beyond just Quebec—as The Hub has documented, the feeling of disenfranchisement is growing among Western Canadians struggling to make their political preferences have an electoral impact. Coupled with the political incentives that might compel a Carney-led Liberal government to commit an oil and gas export tax on western Canadian energy exports, and the prospect of a new national unity crisis is apparent.
In Alberta, for example, skepticism toward Canadian federalism is pronounced, with many expressing lower levels of pessimism about their province’s potential independence or even joining the United States. Albertans are the least likely of any Canadians to say that being part of the U.S. would leave their province worse off, with over a quarter (27 percent) saying their province would actually be better off as a part of America compared to just 18 percent for Canada as a whole.
We have documented dissatisfaction in Alberta previously. In our recent Western Identity Report conducted with 2000 adult Western Canadians (including 600 Albertans) between January 29th and February 14th, 2025, we showed that 55 percent of Albertans feel that their province is being treated unfairly by the federal government. Our Western Identity Report shows routinely that about 20 percent of both Alberta and Saskatchewan residents would like to see their province separate from Canada and form its own country.
While regional alienation is high in Western Canada, the political salience of Quebec separatism is evolving away from outright sovereignty to greater autonomy within Canada.
The Quebec political scene
With the federal election approaching, the Bloc Québécois remains the frontrunner in Quebec, holding strong support despite efforts by the Carney Liberals to close the gap. While the Liberals have gained some ground, the Bloc remains on track to secure a significant number of seats in the province. Meanwhile, despite Pierre Poilievre’s push to broaden Conservative appeal in Quebec, the party lags far behind, with little chance of winning more than a handful of seats.
At the provincial level, the Parti Québécois (PQ) has surged ahead, leading by 14 points. Committed to holding a referendum on independence in its first mandate, the PQ has built broad support across most age groups, with the exception of voters aged 18 to 34, who are more inclined to back Québec Solidaire. However, enthusiasm for Quebec sovereignty remains weak. This dynamic creates a political paradox—even as support for sovereignty declines, the PQ’s popularity continues to grow. The tension between rising nationalist sentiment and waning enthusiasm for separation is likely to play a significant role in the federal election, shaping party strategies and voter alignments throughout Quebec.
Canadians’ views on the national unity question
Pollara’s latest report, part of its 40th Anniversary Survey Series, offers a comprehensive examination of the evolving issue of national unity in Canada, with a particular focus on Quebec’s political landscape and its relationship with the rest of the country. Drawing from four decades of data, we explore Quebecers’ attitudes toward sovereignty, their views on holding another referendum, perspectives on Quebec’s distinct status within Canada, economic considerations related to separation, and the overall likelihood of Quebec becoming independent.
The findings reveal significant shifts in public opinion over time, highlighting a complex political reality in which enthusiasm for independence has diminished, despite the Parti Québécois’ resurgence. At the same time, opposition outside Quebec to granting the province special status or constitutional accommodations has hardened, reflecting a broader transformation in Canadian federalism.
The prospect of another referendum on Quebec’s sovereignty faces strong opposition, with 55 percent of Quebecers rejecting the idea of a vote within the next five years. Among major political parties, only the PQ enjoys widespread support for a referendum among its voters, while the broader public and supporters of other parties show little interest in revisiting the issue.
This aligns with the fact that 54 percent of Quebecers oppose independence. Support for sovereignty is highest among those aged 65 and older, whereas younger generations are far less inclined to back separation. This generational divide indicates that while nationalist sentiments persist, they lack the intensity and broad appeal seen in past decades. Notably, although a majority still opposes independence, this marks a significant decline from the 76 percent opposition recorded in 1996.
Graphic credit: Janice Nelson.
The broader national unity debate
Beyond the sovereignty debate, we also revisit the controversial issue of recognizing Quebec as a “distinct society” within Canada, a debate that was particularly heated during the 1992 Charlottetown Accord referendum. Over time, national attitudes toward this idea have become markedly less supportive. Only 26 percent of Canadians now favour granting Quebec formal recognition as a distinct society, representing a 29-point drop since 1992.
Meanwhile, opposition to the concept has grown significantly, with 48 percent of Canadians now rejecting the notion of Quebec receiving such recognition, an increase of 16 points over the same period. Although a plurality of Quebecers (42 percent) still support this recognition, the idea is strongly rejected across English Canada, where opposition is widespread in Ontario, the Prairies, British Columbia, and Atlantic Canada.
Graphic credit: Janice Nelson.
Closely tied to the issue of distinct society status is the question of whether Quebec should be granted special constitutional powers as a means of keeping it within Canada. Here, too, support has dwindled: only 19 percent of Canadians favour such a measure, down four points since 1997. The idea of giving Quebec unique legislative or political concessions is met with strong resistance across most regions, reflecting a broader shift in Canadian federalism. Once viewed as a means of preserving national unity, constitutional accommodations for Quebec are now perceived by many as unnecessary or unfair, particularly in provinces that favour a more decentralized federation.
Our 40th-anniversary retrospective also explores the economic considerations associated with Quebec sovereignty. A key finding is that most Canadians believe that Quebec already receives its fair share of federal spending, a perception that has likely contributed to the declining enthusiasm for separatism.
Within Quebec, awareness of the potential economic risks of independence appears to be growing. A majority of Quebecers now believe that if the province were to separate, it would face serious economic challenges, including businesses leaving the province and significant job losses. These economic anxieties seem to play a crucial role in dampening support for sovereignty, reinforcing the view that remaining within Canada offers greater financial stability.
More broadly, Canadians remain cautious about the consequences of provincial independence. While 53 percent of Canadians believe their province would be worse off outside of Canada—a decline of 14 points since 1994—an even greater number (65 percent) believe their province would be worse off if it were to become part of the United States.
Will it happen?
Currently, the prevailing view is that Quebec’s chances of achieving independence remain low. Our research indicates that 74 percent of Canadians believe Quebec is unlikely to separate within the next three years—an eight-point increase in skepticism since 1997. Meanwhile, only 12 percent now see Quebec independence as a possibility, marking a significant 17-point decline over the same period. Among Quebecers, skepticism is even higher, with 84 percent saying independence is unlikely within the next three years.
However, despite these low expectations, the Parti Québécois is on track to form the government in 2026, and the Bloc Québécois is positioned to gain a substantial number of seats in the upcoming federal election. National unity remains an issue. The contrast between waning expectations for sovereignty and rising political support for the PQ raises key questions about Quebec’s future.
While many Quebecers may not see independence as an immediate goal, there is still a strong desire for a more distinct provincial identity and greater autonomy—something the rest of Canada is likely to resist. Expect this issue to take centre stage in the French leaders’ debate and throughout the campaign.
