This is The Week in Polling, your Saturday dose of interesting numbers from top pollsters in Canada and around the world, curated by The Hub. Here’s what we’re looking at this week.
Potential Conservative voters are more committed than potential Liberal voters
Source: Leger
While national polling is not looking so good for the Conservatives, with a 38 percent voter share compared to the Liberals’ 44 percent, according to aggregator 338 Canada, a recent poll from Leger has found a notable disparity in voter commitment between potential Liberal and Conservative voters. Sixty-five percent of Liberal supporters are sure their decision to vote Liberal is final, while 73 percent of Conservative supporters express the same commitment to that party. Conversely, a third of possible Liberal voters indicate they might reconsider their choice, compared to just a quarter of possible Conservative voters.
Meanwhile, the NDP continues to bleed support, with only 38 percent of its voters committed to the party. Nearly 60 percent are willing to change their mind. This poses some major concerns for the NDP, as progressive voters flock to the Liberals.
“The [NDP should be] very concerned,” said CEO of Ipsos Darrell Bricker in an interview with The Hill Times. “This is the strategy that Justin Trudeau executed [in 2015 and is] in play again, which, when they win, they unite the progressive vote behind one option.”
Despite the higher commitment amongst declared Conservative voters, a recent Abacus Data poll found that Liberal voters are more determined to go to the polls. About 70 percent of possible Conservative voters, 74 percent of possible Liberal voters, 66 percent of possible NDP voters, and 78 percent of possible Bloc Québécois voters say they are definitely going to cast their vote.
In regard to age, younger voters are less likely to commit to voting. Only 44 percent of those aged 18 to 29 say they are definitely going to vote, compared to 59 percent of those aged 30 to 44. Commitment increases with age, with 73 percent of individuals aged 45 to 59, and 86 percent of those aged 60 and over stating they are definitely going to vote. Older Canadians are historically known to be the demographic with the highest voter turnout.
The above Leger poll found that Liberal voters are skewing older, with 52 percent of Canadians over 55 saying they plan to vote Liberal. Thirty-seven percent of Canadians aged 18-34 and 39 percent of Canadians aged 35-54 plan on casting their vote for the Grits.
