Luke Smith: How seriously should we be taking Pierre Poilievre’s rallies?

Chad doesn’t believe the polls.

“Totally manipulated to spin a story.”

Relying on them will backfire, he says.

This was his first political rally. His vote was up for grabs this election—he’s voted for other parties before. He’s impressed.

It’s hard to fault his enthusiasm, given the scenes he just saw. Chad, wrapped in a “POILIEVRE 2025 BRING IT HOME” flag, is seated, this Monday night, on a now-empty riser in a quickly emptying warehouse in the industrial area of Nisku, Alberta, just south of Edmonton. But 20 minutes ago he was pressed in amongst thousands and thousands^{1Arguing over the actual number is almost beside the point. Organizers claimed 11,000 people registered and more than that showed up, with next-day campaign estimates claiming 15,000. The RCMP estimated 9,000-12,000. Regardless, it was certainly one of the largest political gatherings in Canadian history.} of Conservative supporters chanting (“Bring it home,” “Axe the tax”), cheering (for Stephen Harper, for a D-Day veteran, for almost every slogan and soundbite Pierre Poilievre pronounces), singing (O, Canada, when the microphones falter), and booing (at mention of Mark Carney, the Calgary Flames).

There’s just more energy behind Poilievre than Carney, Chad tells me. Whether he’s right is becoming the question of the campaign.

Some strategists will counter that rallies are the empty calories of a campaign diet, that rallying the base to turnout to stomp to cheer and to flatter the leader in the moment, and then eventually cast a vote for him after that moment, is one thing. But appealing beyond your hardcore committeds is where elections are won and lost, and on that front, the polls are telling a sobering story for the Conservatives.

Two considerations amidst all the uncertainty:

First, boasting about the crowd sizes, making them a central messaging plank, getting into arguments with the media about them—you’re only reinforcing a certain association you should be working to distance yourself from.

That being said, for the Conservatives, the rallies are about the only good news story they’ve got going right now. Would it be better if fewer people were showing up? That they were less enthusiastic in their support? That their momentum was slowing, rather than gaining, halfway through this election?

In 2021, I covered an Erin O’Toole campaign stop in the Edmonton area. It was held in a hotel conference room, attended mostly by Boomers asking polite and considered questions. Nobody had to adjust their hearing aids to deafen the din. There was plenty of capacity to spare.

Here in 2025, the instinct to frame this issue now as an either/or between holding rallies and persuading the general population is puzzling. These are not necessarily mutually exclusive propositions. The Conservative campaign seems to be counting on the idea that they’re mutually reinforcing. It’s not obvious yet that they’re wrong.

Politics is about people, to state the obvious. And if you can persuade people to stand in line for hours for a packed-out rally, weeks before election day, in Kitchener or Edmonton or Sault Ste. Marie, perhaps they in turn can persuade a few of their friends or family or colleagues to actually turn out and vote when it matters. On-the-ground momentum has an energy of its own. Effectively harnessing and expanding it will continue to be a main focus of the CPC campaign moving forward.

The bet is that Canada’s Chads are as representative of the electorate as those rare few willing to answer a political poll, that Liberal response bias is overstating the Grit’s lead and understating a hidden Tory turnout.

As Darell Bricker, pollster and CEO of Ipsos, tells The Hub, Canadian elections tend to have a lot of instability right up to the very end. While the probabilities currently favour the Liberals, these tendencies towards late swings should temper any certainty, he says

This might be a bad bet, but it’s about the only one the Conservatives have at this point, short of a dramatic turnaround driven by the debates or outside events.

Ultimately, if Poilievre comes up short in this election, it will be despite the massive rallies, not because of them.

And if the Conservatives do lose despite all the enthusiasm on display for them out West this week, despite the sustained clamour for a real seat back at the table—if all that is to mean nothing for the actual outcome—we might soon see what other cause a growing portion of those Albertans are willing to rally for next.