This is The Week in Polling, your Saturday dose of interesting numbers from top pollsters in Canada and around the world, curated by The Hub. Here’s what we’re looking at this week.
More than a third of Canadians think Trump is ‘definitely’ trying to influence the election
Source: Leger
A recent Leger poll found that a significant majority of Canadians suspect U.S. President Donald Trump is attempting to influence Canada’s upcoming federal election. Specifically, 36 percent believe he is definitely trying to interfere, while another 36 percent think he may be. Only 19 percent believe he is not.
Trump’s comments on Canadian politics have grown as of late. In a Fox News interview, he arguably endorsed Mark Carney, calling the Liberals easier to deal with than the Conservatives. Notably, following a call, he referred to Carney using the title of prime minister, rather than the belittling “governor” title he consistently used when referring to Justin Trudeau.
Meanwhile, he has labelled Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre as “no friend” of his and “not a MAGA guy.”
Late last month, Trump said, “[Canada] was Conservative until I got involved—because I don’t care who wins up there. Honestly, I’d probably do better with the Liberal. Just a little while ago, before I got involved and changed the election—it’s probably to our advantage, actually—the Conservative was leading against Governor Trudeau by 35 points.”
About 35 percent of potential Liberal voters and 39 percent of Conservatives think Trump is definitely influencing the election, which Carney is projected to win.
Polls are finding that the leading ballot box question for many voters, specifically older voters, is which leader can best deal with Trump. Recent polls show Carney is recognized by Canadians as the leader best suited to deal with the president.
“The most consistent and powerful predictor of a Liberal vote is a sense that Mark Carney is the better choice to manage the economy and deal with Donald Trump,” wrote Abacus Data’s David Coletto.
