In The Weekly Wrap, Sean Speer, our editor-at-large, analyses for Hub subscribers the big stories shaping politics, policy, and the economy in the week that was.
In the leaders’ debate, Poilievre rightly made the case for change
One of the virtues of doing The Hub’s daily video and podcast show during this campaign is that we’ve gotten to speak to leading pollsters like Darrell Bricker and David Coletto on a regular basis.
They’ve told us two things that are relevant for thinking about tonight’s leaders’ debate: first, there are still a lot of undecided voters who have yet to make a judgement about how they’ll vote in the coming days; and second, large numbers of Canadians said they intended to tune into the debate.
With these points in mind, Pierre Poilievre had a strong night. He presented himself to accessible voters in a way that demonstrated his command of the issues and even exposed them a bit to who he is and what makes him tick. Most importantly, though, he made a persuasive case for himself as an agent for change.
It’s been interesting watching the Poilievre campaign evolve over the past few weeks. It started in something of a hedged position. Its heart was in favour of making the election about change, but its head told them that they needed to be in on the Trump issue. That’s how we ended up with the somewhat clumsy “Canada First” slogan.
It never really fit. It wasn’t the argument that Poilievre wanted to make. It wasn’t where his heart was. The early part of the campaign felt off as a result. It was trying to make two different arguments—and in turn wasn’t making either particularly well.
Tonight’s debate was a sign that Poilievre’s heart has ultimately won out. He’s prepared to win or lose making the case for change. He must have said the word a dozen times or more.
It was a good decision. The same pollsters cited above have reminded us that change is still a dominant idea among Canadian voters. They know that things weren’t going well before Trump started talking about tariffs or Canada becoming the 51st state. He’ll come and go, but the country’s fundamental challenges—ones that were caused or exacerbated by the Liberal government—will persist. Re-electing the Liberal Party is bound to make them worse.
I’ve worked for politicians, including former prime minister Stephen Harper, in a previous life. One lesson that I learned is that a political strategy cannot just reflect polls. These politicians are testing their reputations. They’re sacrificing time with their families. They’re putting themselves on the line.
A political strategy needs to ultimately be something that they believe in. It has to animate them. It must align the head and the heart.
Poilievre’s debate performance is a sign that the Conservatives have settled on such a political strategy. It’s unclear whether it will work. Polls tell us that they’re still behind the Liberals.
But for those Canadians watching the debate and making a genuine judgement about whether to vote based on change or Trump, Poilievre made a heartfelt case for change. It was the right decision and a good outcome for him and the Conservative Party. We’ll learn in the coming days if it was enough.
