For if the trumpet give an uncertain sound, who shall prepare himself for the battle? – 1 Corinthians 14:8
The people have spoken. But it’s kind of difficult to figure out what they said.
The resurrected Liberal Party won both the popular vote and the most seats in the new House of Commons, but apparently fell short of a majority. The Conservatives had their highest popular vote in decades, but their controversial leader lost his own seat.
Canada’s plethora of smaller parties had a ghastly night. The venerable socialist New Democratic Party was reduced to below the threshold for official party status. The Bloc Québécois vote held up better, but their seat total was substantially reduced. The Green and People’s parties were almost eliminated.
And yet…
The New Democrats with seven seats arguably have the balance of power in Ottawa. This fact will constrain Prime Minister Mark Carney’s ability to move the Liberals to the centre of the political spectrum, from the leftist position it assumed under Justin Trudeau.
Fiscal consolidation, rationalization of the public service, and pausing the extension of social programs will be difficult to achieve, though perhaps necessary in the near future. The Liberal platform, to be fair, never promised any of those things. But can a politician elected by the Left govern from the centre? Carney, a political neophyte, will have to show a deft touch if he is to navigate the next four years.
Perhaps the most difficult decisions will be around defence policy. We are entering a new age of blood and iron where smaller countries will have three choices: either a) to be able to defend themselves by any means up to and including nuclear weapons; or b) be able to mobilize sufficient resources to be a valuable ally; or c) to let the local superpower explicitly take complete responsibility for your defence and become a protectorate.
Decades of neglect of its defences have left Canada in position c). Yet neither major party addressed this pressing issue in their platforms.
One of the presidential portraits in President Donald Trump’s Oval Office is that of James K. Polk, the original “dark horse” president whose major achievement was stealing half of Mexico in a war that later President (and Mexican War veteran) Ulysses S Grant called “one of the most unjust ever waged by a stronger against a weaker nation.” The same could be said of the Spanish American War waged by President William McKinley, much admired by Trump for his tariff policies as well as his conquest of Puerto Rico, Guam, and the Philippines.
These threats are not trivial. Trump’s normal attention span seems very short, but he has shown great persistence in mentioning, and has never disavowed, his intention to absorb Canada. Both major parties responded by promising to reach a minimum level of defence spending by a point in time beyond their current mandate. But so shambolic are Canada’s procurement policies, so obsolete and worn out its equipment, and so mind-bogglingly inefficient its defence industries, that even if this bare minimum is achieved, the warfighting capacity of the resulting Canadian Armed Forces would be very questionable.
In this new, Darwinian world of Xi, Trump, and Putin, smaller countries will have to become adaptable. If they cannot defend themselves, they will not have sovereignty. And if they do not have sovereignty, they will not be able to design their own social programs and climate policies as the left would like. They also cannot build infrastructure, diversify trade, and reduce taxes as the right would do. This is the sad realization that the Liberal coalition and the Conservative coalition will have to experience in the next few years if a recognizable Canada is to survive. It would be great if they realized that Trump’s “fake emergency” measures have created a true national emergency for Canada, and acted accordingly, in the national interest.
I wish Prime Minister Carney Godspeed, and hope his trumpet call may be certain and clear.
