‘He played it safe’: The Hub reacts to Mark Carney’s underwhelming cabinet choices

The suspense is over. Mark Carney has made his first major decisions as prime minister in choosing who will fill out his cabinet. To the surprise of many close political watchers, he appears to have largely chosen continuity over change, leaning on Liberal government mainstays of the last decade with many Trudeau-era ministers once again in prominent positions.

Luckily, some of The Hub’s best political analysts are on hand to react to the news and break down what these picks might mean for Canada’s new government.

Mark Carney declines to make his mark

By Theo Argitis, The Hub’s editor-at-large for business and economics

Mark Carney had a chance to make a statement with his first cabinet and to show he was serious about real change. Instead, he played it safe and underwhelmed.

The cabinet he unveiled feels more balancing act than bold vision. It’s too large to project focus, and overprocessed—shaped more by regional and political considerations than a desire to harness fully the best talent in his caucus. As a result, it doesn’t come across as a team built with the purpose of delivering ambitious reform.

Going into yesterday’s announcement, I expected a cabinet more shaped in Carney’s own image. Instead, he looks like a man choosing to carry much of the heavy lifting himself.

There are some fresh faces, but most landed in minor roles. And while a few senior ministers were shuffled, the core of Trudeau’s cabinet looks a lot like the core of Carney’s: Dominic LeBlanc, Mélanie Joly, François-Philippe Champagne, Sean Fraser, Chrystia Freeland, Steven Guilbeault.

A few choices do stand out in a good way. Appointing Tim Hodgson to natural resources is a strong signal. Hodgson, a former Goldman Sachs colleague of Carney’s, brings deep experience and credibility. Pair that with the removal of Jonathan Wilkinson from that file, and it could mark a real shift in how this government approaches energy development. Look out for any signals from Hodgson on the issue of the emissions cap on oil and gas. That’s where it will start.

Guilbeault’s removal from environment—replaced by Julie Dabrusin, who is also very much left leaning but not a political heavyweight—also suggests a downgrading of that portfolio. The Quebec caucus may not like either of the moves on the resource/environment file, which, frankly, is part of the appeal.

Freeland’s move to transport and internal trade is another smart play. She works well with premiers and has a solid track record when tasked with focused missions, like the renegotiation of NAFTA. Few know that behind the scenes, she was also a steady hand during the country’s transport labour disruptions over the last year, making her a good fit to oversee that sector.

François-Philippe Champagne will be a good finance minister—for Carney. He lacks expertise on financial files and has shown only soft interest in the big geo-economic issues of the day, but he qualifies on one key aspect of the job: the ability to carry the government’s broad economic message to the public. Carney doesn’t need a co-pilot on policy; he needs someone who can sell the plan. In that sense, it works.

At Foreign Affairs, many won’t like Anita Anand’s boilerplate Liberal position on Israel. But she’s smart and highly competent.

Dominic LeBlanc remaining as the point man on Canada-U.S. relations is fine. It suggests trust between him and Carney, but doesn’t necessarily move the needle.

Other moves were less inspiring.

Shafqat Ali, tasked with finding major savings and efficiencies as president of the Treasury Board, has no clear qualifications for the job. Joly’s move to Industry will test both her interest and suitability for big economic files—a gamble by Carney at a time when industrial policy is making a big comeback globally.

Swapping out Steven MacKinnon—one of the few centrists in the Trudeau cabinet with a real record of success on economic files—for Patty Hajdu as jobs minister is a downgrade. Maninder Sidhu at trade is at least familiar with the file, but not exactly a breakout star.

Excluding former Quebec finance minister Carlos Leitao from cabinet also seems like a missed opportunity.

If you were hoping for a cabinet that screamed transformation, this wasn’t it.

A ho-hum cabinet for younger Canadians

By Sabrina Maddeaux, political columnist and commentator

The new Carney cabinet is a mix of old faces, new faces, and some rather large red flags. There was always a concern throughout the campaign that Carney’s Liberals wouldn’t fully grasp the stakes of this next government for Canada’s economically devastated young people, or the intense disillusionment and anger they feel. While there are younger faces throughout the cabinet, that isn’t enough to meet the moment. Communication skills, credibility with young Canadians, and track record matter.

This is what makes the decision to boot Nate Erskine-Smith, the Liberals’ most skilled housing communicator and one of the most popular MPs among younger voters—even those of the blue and orange varieties—so confounding, if not insulting. Even more so: the choice to replace him with a former Vancouver mayor, Robertson, who presided over astronomical home price increases. But it’s not just one file: the cabinet minister responsible for the immigration surge that drove housing unaffordability and youth unemployment remains in cabinet. So do most of the other big names who oversaw, or stayed silent while the PMO oversaw, a lost decade for Millennials and Gen Z.

For younger Canadians, this doesn’t look a lot like change, even if some of the names are different. Carney and his cabinet will have a lot of work to do to prove to this demographic that they’re serious about tackling the issues that matter most to them, or risk permanently losing young voters to other parties.

Carney’s uninspiring vision for Canada’s place in the world

By Joanna Baron, executive director of the Canadian Constitution Foundation

I have been—reluctantly—impressed by some aspects of Prime Minister Mark Carney: his consistency on the stump, his restraint, his pragmatism, and yes, his effective cribbing of Conservative Party policy.

But foreign policy remains a zone of troubling continuity with the Justin Trudeau era (though perhaps not with Trudeau’s personal convictions, if his valedictory remarks are any guide). Carney has pledged to continue funding UNRWA despite credible evidence of Hamas infiltration, and he has likened Israel’s war of self-defence against terrorists to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. His MPs have perfected the art of saying nothing while appearing to say everything.

Newly appointed Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand exemplifies this posture. Her campaign X post was a masterclass in strategic vagueness:

No mention of Hamas, the terrorist group that continues to menace both Palestinian civilians and Israel. No use of the word “genocide.” No mention of an arms embargo. Mentioning antisemitism only after anti-Palestinian racism and Islamophobia—despite hate crimes against Jews vastly outpacing all others.

This isn’t accidental. It’s algorithmically calibrated. Anand is likely to serve as minister of foreign affairs in the same broad vein as her predecessor Mélanie Joly—who still hasn’t taken down her October 2023 X post condemning Israel for bombing al-Shifa Hospital, despite conclusive evidence the hospital was struck by a misfired Palestinian Islamic Jihad missile. Joly scrupulously avoids offending constituencies rather than taking principled positions.

Canada’s stubborn refusal to take clear positions—evident in Anand’s perfectly balanced statements—undermines our credibility as a middle power. While Carney may have found electoral success in his strategic centrism on domestic issues, this same approach in foreign affairs risks rendering Canada irrelevant in the very international conversations where moral clarity matters most.

The blob wins

By Sean Speer, The Hub’s editor-at-large

Mark Carney’s meteoric rise from almost-ran to prime minister with a stable government was far from guaranteed. His decision to enter politics in the face of a huge polling deficit reflected a supreme self-confidence. Carney was in effect betting on himself at the precise moment that many long-time cabinet ministers were betting on defeat and exiting politics altogether.

He displayed an impressive shrewdness when his first act as prime minister was to kill the carbon tax—a signature policy of the previous Liberal government and Carney’s own policy advocacy. And then he ran a self-disciplined campaign in which he leaned into his persona as a self-styled elitist and globalist including well-fitted suits and a regular necktie. It ultimately worked. Carney’s bet on himself paid off.

There was something clearly appealing about a political leader who was comfortable in his own skin, unconstrained by the typical assumptions and attachments of politics, and committed to a debatable yet sincere “theory of the case” if one can put it that way.

Yes, of course, he was surrounded by the usual Liberal apparatchiks. But there was a sense that Carney was so clever that he was using them to secure the brass ring, and then he’d ruthlessly discard them on the way into prime minister’s office just as he had the carbon tax or Justin Trudeau for that matter.

Yesterday’s cabinet appointments disprove this theory. The appointments of failed Trudeau-era ministers like Sean Fraser, Melanie Joly, and Steven Guilbeault aren’t in keeping with the idea of a self-betting Carney as his own man. They instead reflect the usual compromises and trade-offs of a party man. His brief stint as an anti-politician politician is essentially over.

Those of us who assumed that Carney would outfox the Ottawa blob were wrong. He’s ultimately given in to it. It’s a powerful reminder of the old adage about betting: the house always wins.

This presumably could have big implications for his governing agenda. It suggests that Carney’s personal ambitions and instincts will be weighed down by traditional party politics. And it should therefore mean a far more conventional and calculating government than the transformational one that many predicted—and some hoped for.

Robertson is a high-risk pick for housing

By Mike Moffatt, founding director of the Missing Middle Initiative and co-host of the Missing Middle Podcast

Given that Vancouver is among the world’s least affordable housing markets, giving former Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson the housing portfolio has been met with extreme skepticism, particularly on social media. Let’s hope he uses the doubters as motivation for creating the type of transformative change the country needs to address the housing crisis.

This is a high-risk/high-reward move by Carney, as a large part of the role of the housing minister is to incentivize reforms at the municipal level. Robertson may be overly sympathetic to the challenges of municipalities, which risks having the ministry captured by municipal interests. On the other hand, his deep knowledge of how cities work could also give him an upper hand in negotiations.

The Liberal platform did not contain enough to restore Canadians’ dream of homeownership, but Robertson’s British Columbia background could help change that. The proposed Liberal GST housing tax cut, limited to first-time homebuyers, is not enough to move the needle on ownership construction. British Columbia, on the other hand, does not assess sales tax on new homes, and has a full property transfer tax exemption on newly built homes valued under $1.1 million used by primary residents. These larger tax exemptions help build new homes and provide useful models for the federal government to consider when designing its revised GST New Housing Rebate.

Cautious optimism with Hodgson at energy

By Heather Exner-Pirot, director of energy, natural resources and environment at Macdonald-Laurier Institute

The Canadian oil and gas sector has felt under attack from within for the past decade, and they knew who was leading the offensive: Steven Guilbeault, former minister of environment and climate change, and Jonathan Wilkinson, former minister of energy and natural resources.

Rather than champion the Canadian oil and gas sector and be its ambassador on the world stage to allies and potential trade partners, as one might expect from the energy minister of the world’s third-largest oil-exporting nation, Wilkinson often acted like its biggest adversary.

In the wake of the latest Liberal election victory, emotions have run high in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Talk of separation has grown due in no small part to the threat Ottawa has posed to the energy and natural resources sectors and the repeated intrusion into provincial jurisdiction to undermine them.

Prime Minister Carney said some good things on the campaign trail, expressing his desire to turn Canada into a conventional energy superpower and build big things. But he said some concerning things, too. His choice for minister of energy and natural resources was highly anticipated, the first tangible indication of where his energy agenda will actually lead.

On a list of who amongst the Liberals’ caucus might give confidence to the oil and gas sector, the only name I heard was Tim Hodgson. A former CEO of Goldman Sachs Canada, chair of Hydro One, and board member of MEG Energy, an oilsands producer, he understands business and energy. There is cautious optimism that Hodgson is not one of them; he might actually be one of us.

The minister of environment and climate change, Julie Dabrusin, on the other hand, is one of them. In her official Liberal biography, her bona fides include “developing the ban on single-use plastics, [taking] a strong stance against oil sands expansion, and [promoting] the critical need for a transition from fossil fuels to a low-carbon economy.”

That’s fine. No one gets their hopes up too much around here anyway; fatalism insulates against the disappointment. But with Hodgson at energy, there is at least the possibility of a refresh. His appointment is very welcome news.

Carney’s cabinet leaves Western Canada wondering—again

By Brad Tennant, a vice president with Wellington Advocacy

The reaction from the West to Carney’s new cabinet isn’t about bruised egos or chasing geographic quotas. It’s about whether Ottawa is finally ready to stop blocking Canadian job creation and resource development.

Few will miss Jonathan Wilkinson on the natural resources file. His replacement, Tim Hodgson, brings some reason for optimism, with experience on the board of an oil sands company and a background that suggests a more practical approach. But hope depends on whether that experience leads to a real change in direction.

Carney also moved Steven Guilbeault out of the environment portfolio, but gave him a new role as minister of Canadian identity. That appointment is baffling. In a moment where separatist sentiment in Alberta and Saskatchewan rivals that of Quebec, Ottawa has tapped a former Greenpeace activist—once arrested for anti-development protests—to define Canadian identity. That’s a tough message for the West to accept, even if there’s optimism that he is out of environment.

Edmonton’s Eleanor Olszewski was appointed to cabinet, and Saskatchewan’s Buckley Belanger was appointed as a Secretary of State, but for a long-frustrated West, it isn’t about geographical representation. It’s about whether the federal government will start acting like the West matters. After 10 years of Trudeau, all people can do is have a humble hope for improvement. Some choices, like Christya Freeland pushing for more free interprovincial trade, could be a welcome development. But snubs like Calgary’s Corey Hogan being left out are puzzling.

If Carney wants to reset the relationship with the West, the cabinet is only a small first step. What matters now is whether he will deliver action that reflects national unity, or if Western alienation continues to deepen. The signs are mixed, and the stakes are high.

Procurement is an under-the-radar portfolio with an outsized impact

By Richard Shimooka, a Hub contributing writer and a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute 

With David McGuinty as minister, national defence will likely be in good hands. He has previously displayed a strong understanding of the national security threats facing the country during his time in Parliamentary Committees and as public safety Minister. While not a leading figure in the cabinet, McGuinty seems likely to push a much more pragmatic understanding of Canada’s national defence and its place in the world than earlier in Trudeau’s era.

He’s likely going to find support around the cabinet table with Anand as minister of foreign affairs and Dominic LeBlanc with his responsibilities over Canada-U.S. relations. Questions, however, arise over the state of the PM’s other promise to reform defence procurement. This is a herculean task. For it to be successful, it requires the government to break the existing interdepartmental arrangement where interests outside of national defence are allowed to intrude on procurement. Stephen Fuhr’s appointment as an associate minister does not bode well for this task. It means the government will likely attempt a much more limited reform effort that will not fix the underlying issues afflicting this area.

Carney’s credibility slips

By John Ibbitson, journalist, writer, and author

Two unrelated first impressions of Mark Carney’s second cabinet:

First, the new ministry is heavy with MPs from the Greater Toronto Area. Nine of the 28 ministers are from the GTA.^{1Shafqat Ali (Brampton Centre), Anita Anand (Oakville), Gary Anandasangaree (Scarborough-Guildwood-Rouge Park), Julie Dabrusin (Toronto-Danforth), Chrystia Freeland (University-Rosedale), Tim Hodgson (Markham-Thornhill), Maninder Sidhu (Brampton East), Evan Solomon (Toronto Centre), and Rechie Valdez (Mississauga-Streetsville).}

The GTA is more heavily represented in the cabinet than Quebec. I count seven ministers from that province.^{2Francois Philippe Champagne (Saint-Maurice-Champlain), Steven Guilbeault (Laurier-Sainte-Marie), Mandy Gull-Masty(Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou), Mélanie Joly (Ahuntsic-Cartierville), Joël Lightbound (Louis-Hébert), Steven MacKinnon (Gatineau), and Marjorie Michel (Papineau).}

Western representation is thin because there are relatively few Liberal MPs west of Ontario. Regardless, no one should doubt how heavily focused this cabinet will be on the GTA and Quebec.

Second, this cabinet confirms that Canada’s foreign affairs minister has become something of a joke. Anita Anand replaces Melanie Joly, who held the portfolio for three-and-a-half years. That made Joly, remarkably, one of the longest-serving foreign affairs ministers in this century. Anand will be the sixteenth to hold that office since 2000.

The minister of foreign affairs was once one of the most senior in cabinet, a de facto deputy prime minister. Its ranks included such storied names as Louis St. Laurent, Lester Pearson, Paul Martin Sr., Flora MacDonald, Joe Clark, Lloyd Axworthy, and John Manley.

But under Paul Martin, Stephen Harper, and Justin Trudeau, it became a revolving door, and Carney appears determined to continue the trend. “Canada’s standing in the world has slipped,” wrote one of the revolving ministers, Marc Garneau, in his autobiography. “We are losing credibility.”

With this latest substitution of ministers, that credibility just slipped a bit further.

A Trudeau hangover cabinet

By Eric Lombardi, founder and president of More Neighbours Toronto

For someone who positioned himself as a break from the Trudeau years, Carney’s choices feel more like a hangover than a fresh new day. Many senior ministers from the previous government remain in place, and the key appointments show little urgency in correcting past failures or signalling a new direction.

Finance, for example, goes to François-Philippe Champagne—a capable politician, but one with no background in finance. This continues a strange tradition of assigning one of the most important economic portfolios to people without the relevant expertise. Meanwhile, Carlos Leitão, a former Quebec finance minister with real-world banking experience, is nowhere to be found. Neither is Vince Gasparro, a newly elected MP with financial sector credentials and credibility. It’s a missed opportunity to bring technical strength to a file that demands it.

On housing, the appointment of Gregor Robertson is perplexing. As mayor of Vancouver, Robertson presided over a decade where housing prices more than doubled and municipal taxes on new housing rose by over 140 percent. Replacing Nate Erskine-Smith—a thoughtful, young, well-regarded MP with deep knowledge of the file—with someone whose track record is frankly weak, is a choice.

There are other eyebrow-raisers: Steven Guilbeault remains in cabinet, now as minister of Canadian identity—a move that feels like a symbolic provocation to Alberta more than anything else. And the newly created ministry of artificial intelligence, led by Evan Solomon, a journalist, is hard to understand. Do we really need a minister for AI?

To be fair, there are bright spots. Tim Hodgson, with a real financial background, will lead energy and natural resources. That’s a strong appointment. But overall, this cabinet will need to prove it can rally to the moment. The political landscape has changed. The public expects a government focused on execution—not announcements, not experiments, not performative governance.

My best advice to this team? Keep it simple. Focus on what matters. Don’t let secondary or symbolic priorities distract from the urgent need to deliver real, material change. Canada doesn’t need more branding. It needs results.