Using the chess term “Mid-Game” to describe the current situation in Ukraine, the second annual Black Sea Security Forum was convened in Odesa, Ukraine, in late May. An optimistic title, I thought, as I attended along with 700 others from the U.S., Europe, South America, and beyond. After all, the term implies there are still many moves to go for Ukraine and its allies to counter Russian President Putin’s seemingly relentless drive to acquire more Ukrainian territory until a ceasefire occurs.
Odesa was also a hopeful spot to convene. Despite nightly air raid sirens due to Russian drone attacks on the crucial port assets, Odesa is a success story of the war so far. Yes, the tourists are few and far between, and the museums are closed. Yet the Black Sea campaign has been a good one for Ukraine: the busy port is still open and transporting millions of tons of grain and other goods to international markets. The Russian fleet has either been destroyed or else confined to Russian-occupied Crimea. Ukraine, without a navy of its own, has nonetheless defeated Russian naval aims. A bright spot.
However, panels of speakers expressing defiance and optimism could not mask the fact that the mid-game of this war has its challenges. Putin has not been deterred by either U.S. President Trump’s pleas or threats. Indeed, he has accelerated his planning for a kinetic summer campaign to expand Russian territory. Panels involving U.K., European, and Turkish politicians and military experts emphasized the need to continue to assist the Ukrainian side, with precious little evidence of implementation.
American representation included former Trump Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who urged a maximum strategy of resistance. Unfortunately, he’s on the outside looking in with the Trump 2.0 world.
As Lord Ashcroft of the U.K., a major funder of the forum, put it, “President Trump must now send an unmistakable message to Vladimir Putin: the United States does not reward aggression and it will not tolerate the redrawing of borders by force.” He called on Trump and legislators to back the Sanctioning Russia Bill, which would tighten the rope on Russia and deny the resources it needs to assault Ukraine.
Europe and countries like Canada must step up, too. Putin has made it clear that Ukraine is merely the first item on the menu for a revanchist Russia to regain territory lost with the loss of empire. The Baltics, Poland, and other front-line NATO states know this all too well. That’s why Ukraine not only needs a cessation of hostilities but also security guarantees to dissuade the Russian state from any future military moves. Canada, playing host to the upcoming G7 meeting in Alberta, must keep Ukraine’s needs at the forefront of the agenda. That Zelenskyy was invited and will attend is a promising sign that it will.
The most positive signal at the Forum occurred on the very last day: as we were all set to depart, word was revealed of the successful Ukraine Special Forces action, Operation Spider’s Web, which went deep into Russia and attacked Russian airfields. Up to 40 bombers and other air assets were damaged or destroyed on the tarmac by $500 Ukrainian drones stationed inside Russia, thousands of kilometres from the front lines. Apparently, this assault was just the beginning, with further tactical strikes being carried out in the days since. Ukraine is providing Western armies a class in real time on modern warfare.
That kind of resilience and ingenuity, just before the stillborn Ukraine-Russia negotiations in Istanbul, illustrated both that Russia was not winning the war and that Ukraine was not losing. While stalemate is not the desired outcome, neither in chess nor in war, it sometimes offers the defending party enough to aspire to another day.
