Alberta’s trio of summer byelections has delivered a mixed verdict—putting NDP leader Naheed Nenshi into the Legislature, revealing signs of vulnerability in the party’s urban base, and giving separatists a boost in rural Alberta, though not enough to win.
Nenshi secures Strathcona with easy 82 percent victory
Nenshi is officially in the Alberta Legislature.
The former three-term Calgary mayor easily held Edmonton-Strathcona, the seat vacated by his predecessor Rachel Notley, giving him the official Opposition platform he has lacked since winning the Alberta NDP leadership almost a year ago to the day.
The riding, which overlaps with what’s considered the safest federal NDP seat in the country, was always projected to be a lock for Nenshi. Unofficial results suggest he’s matched and surpassed the 80 percent support that Notley had previously received.
Located in the heart of what locals call “Redmonton,” this victory offers limited insight into broader provincial enthusiasm for the new leader, who won 86 percent of NDP membership support last summer.
Nenshi may be a seasoned politician, but municipal politics is a solo sport. Party politics is a team game, and he’s still learning the rules. If Premier Danielle Smith opts to call an early general election, as some expect she might in the near future, preempting the 2027 fixed date to capitalize on her popularity, it could cut short the time Nenshi needs to find his footing in Question Period and build momentum as Opposition leader.
Ellerslie stays orange at 51 percent vote share
The NDP held on to Edmonton-Ellerslie, with Gurtej Singh Brar fending off a strong challenge from the UCP’s Naresh Bhardwaj, who had previously served as the area’s MLA.
But the margin was slimmer than the party’s 2023 landslide in the riding. And that drop of nearly 11 points in vote share matters.
The NDP won over 60 percent of the vote here just two years ago. Losing ground in a traditional stronghold suggests voter loyalty is softening, and the UCP’s message is resonating in fast-growing suburban areas.
Political observers have long argued that the party must sweep Edmonton to have a viable path to forming government again. While not a disaster, Monday’s result should end any illusions of automatic NDP dominance in the capital.
Separatists surge in Olds, but fall short to third place at 18 percent
In Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, Republican Party of Alberta leader Cam Davies failed to beat the UCP’s handpicked candidate, Tara Sawyer.
Unofficial results suggest Davies captured nearly the same share of votes as the local NDP candidate, which will likely fuel critics who argue Alberta independence lacks broad appeal.
On the flip side of the coin, that minority support also means roughly one in a half-dozen voters in one of Alberta’s safest conservative rural ridings is serious about leaving Canada.
Driven by anti-Ottawa sentiment, equalization grievances, and frustration with the political status quo, Davies was endorsed by former separatist MLA Gord Kesler, who last won this riding in 1982 under the Western Canada Concept banner.
None of the rhetoric, town halls, and web videos translated to a win, but it is a warning. After all, former speaker of the Legislature Nathan Cooper, who left for a diplomatic post in Washington, held this riding with a commanding 75 percent of the vote in 2023.
Unofficial results suggest support for the Republican Party came largely at the expense of the UCP, which saw a drop of 14 points in vote share, hinting at a potential split on the right if separatist sentiment continues to gain traction.
Observers will be watching closely whether the movement fizzles out from here. Unlike past attempts, today’s separatists are better organized, digitally savvy, and operating under a premier who has already lowered the bar for triggering a referendum.
Yet this may prove to be the high-water mark for the movement. Competing for a seat is one thing; answering questions about passports, trade, treaties, and borders is another entirely.
One wild card remains: U.S. President Donald Trump. If he were to entertain the idea of Alberta joining the United States as a 51st state, it could, in the eyes of many disaffected Albertans, provide a plausible—even attractive—path forward.
Falice Chin is a freelance journalist based in Calgary, serving as The Hub's Alberta Senior Producer. She has worked as a reporter, editor, podcast producer, and newsroom leader across Canada and the Middle East,…
