The potential upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin carries significant risks for Ukraine, as the two leaders could strike a deal before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is invited to join the discussions, according to Janice Gross Stein, founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs.
The proposed meeting format—with Trump meeting Putin alone first, then inviting Zelensky to join—has raised alarm bells among Ukraine’s allies. It would be the first time the leaders have met face-to-face in years.
The Hub spoke with Stein to better understand the potential implications of this high-stakes diplomatic encounter.
Here are five key takeaways from the discussion:
1. Russia’s demands remain maximalist and likely non-negotiable: Putin continues to insist on commitments that would effectively end Ukraine as a sovereign state, including barring NATO and EU membership and largely disarming the Ukrainian military.
2. The meeting format creates a dangerous precedent for Ukraine: Trump’s decision to meet Putin alone first, then invite Zelensky to join, risks presenting Ukraine with a predetermined agreement they had no role in shaping.
3. European allies are preparing contingency plans: Phone lines are likely “buzzing” between Kyiv, London, Paris, and Brussels as leaders game out scenarios where they cannot count on continued U.S. support.
4. Ukraine has built significant capacity to resist independently: Despite the risks, Ukraine has developed a robust defence industrial base and is now manufacturing drones faster than anyone except Russia.
5. Trump’s investment in the meeting’s success could lead to dangerous concessions: The president’s strong desire for a diplomatic victory may incentivize him to agree to almost anything to avoid the appearance of failure. This Friday was supposed to be a deadline Trump set for a ceasefire.
Russia’s demands remain maximalist and likely non-negotiable
Putin’s core demands for ending the conflict have remained consistent since before the 2022 invasion, rooted in his July 2021 letter to the United States. “What’s at the core here? A series of commitments from Ukraine. Most important that it will not join NATO, and not join the European Union. Secondly, that it will largely disarm,” Stein explained.
These demands would effectively “disestablish the Ukrainian army,” creating what Stein describes as “a road that even were Donald Trump to agree to it, Ukraine would never agree.” The territorial component adds another layer of complexity, as Putin continues to demand “all of the Donbas,” including territory Russia has not yet conquered.
The meeting format creates a dangerous precedent for Ukraine
The proposed structure of the Trump-Putin encounter has created what Stein calls a “nightmare” scenario for Zelensky. “I think the risks for Zelensky are really high here, that the two big guys might do some kind of a deal, and he might walk into that room and face a fait accompli,” she warned.
This format represents a significant departure from traditional diplomatic practice, where all parties to a conflict typically participate in negotiations from the outset. The arrangement has been grudgingly accepted by Western European leaders, despite their exclusion from the initial discussions.
European allies are preparing contingency plans
The prospect of reduced American support has galvanized European responses. “I can bet right now the phone lines are buzzing between Kiev, London, Paris, Brussels. They are gaming out the alternatives,” Stein observed.
European leaders, including Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz, and Keir Starmer, “see this as a test for the survival of Europe in this new area of geopolitics in which they cannot count on the United States at all.” However, whether European support alone would be sufficient remains “an entirely different question.”
Ukraine has built significant capacity to resist independently
Despite the diplomatic pressures, Ukraine has developed remarkable resilience. “They have built up their defence industrial base. They are manufacturing drones faster than anybody else in the world right now except Russia,” Stein noted.
This capacity gives Ukraine options beyond diplomatic solutions. Ukrainian officials consistently convey their determination to “fight on, even if we have to do it alone,” according to Stein’s conversations with senior Ukrainian officials at international conferences. This resolve stems from their belief that accepting Putin’s terms would represent “the end of Ukraine.”
Trump’s committed investment in the meeting’s success could lead to dangerous concessions
The dynamics surrounding the proposed summit create particular risks. “Donald Trump has wanted this meeting with Vladimir Putin since he was re-elected and Putin has held out. That means that Donald Trump is very invested in the success of this meeting,” Stein explained.
This investment creates problematic incentives: “Every incentive is in place right now for Donald Trump to agree to almost anything because he does not want to walk out of there saying this meeting has failed.” The recent volatility in Trump’s approach to international partnerships, including his sudden reversal on India, suggests unpredictability.
This commentary draws on a Hub podcast. It was edited using AI. Full program here.
