Trump revives 51st state talk, tying annexation threat to security deal: Explainer

Analysis

U.S. President Donald Trump motions as he leaves after addressing the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly on Sept. 23, 2025. Yuki Iwamura/AP Photo.

In a speech to U.S. military officials on Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump reignited a long-simmering political provocation, suggesting Canada should become the “51st state” to receive America’s “Golden Dome” missile defence program for free.

“They’re having a hard time up there in Canada now because, as you know, with tariffs everyone’s coming into our country,” Trump told the assembled military generals and U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth. He then claimed that “Canada called me a couple of weeks ago, they want to be part of it,” referring to the Golden Dome defence shield. His response was characteristically blunt: “Well, why don’t you just join our country. You become 51—become the 51st state—and you get it for free.”

The latest 51st state comment, after four months of quiet, underscores the persistent uncertainty of the bilateral relationship between Canada and America since Trump’s return to office.

A shared message

Trump’s comments weren’t made in isolation. Just days before, U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra delivered a stark warning during an interview on The Hub’s podcast Alberta Edge, suggesting America might reconsider its defence partnership with Canada if Ottawa doesn’t fully commit to the joint Arctic defence under North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) frameworks.

“If Canada says no, we’re going in a different direction, we will secure America because that’s our job,” Hoekstra stated. “But we recognize that it would probably be much more difficult and much more expensive if we have to try to figure out how to do that without Canada right by our side.”

The ambassador’s comments highlighted growing frustration in Washington with what some perceive as Canadian ambivalence about the security relationship. While Canada has committed $38.6 billion to NORAD modernization over two decades, Hoekstra noted that some Canadians “are talking about we’ve got to re-evaluate” the partnership with the U.S. on national security.  Prime Minister Carney had previously stated he would consider having Canada join the Golden Dome proposal. But while he says it’s been discussed at “high level” talks, his government has not given a definitive answer.

Carney, last March during the leadup to the federal election, claimed the old relationship with America had ended. “The old relationship we had with the United States based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation is over.”

The latest messaging from both Trump and his ambassador to Canada suggests a strategy to leverage defence cooperation as a bargaining chip in broader negotiations over trade, Arctic sovereignty, and renegotiation of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Hoekstra both claim renegotiations of a U.S.-Canada trade deal have stalled and could take until 2027 to be hammered out.

First 51st state comment in four months 

What makes Trump’s most recent incendiary comments particularly noteworthy is their timing and context. While Trump has periodically mentioned annexing Canada since getting re-elected, his rhetoric has notably quieted in recent months.

The Golden Dome proposal itself was previously positioned as a defence system Canada could purchase access to—Trump had earlier suggested a price tag of $61 billion—rather than a vehicle for annexation threats. The president’s $175 billion Golden Dome defence system plan, to be completed 2029, would shield the U.S. from missile threats.

The return to 51st state language on September 30 marks a clear escalation in Trump’s approach. Unlike earlier comments that seemed more like provocative asides or negotiating tactics, this latest iteration was delivered in a formal military setting and explicitly linked to ongoing defence negotiations.

Trump’s annexation comments have evolved from seemingly offhand remarks to then-prime minister Justin Trudeau at Mar-a-Lago after winning the presidential election late last year, to increasingly structured proposals tied to specific policy objectives. Earlier references to Canada as a 51st state were often framed around trade imbalances or taxation issues. Now, Trump has found a new angle: defence cooperation and missile defence systems.

This evolution reflects Trump’s broader approach to international relations, where territorial expansion and traditional alliance structures are viewed through a transactional lens. Greenland and the Panama Canal have similarly featured in Trump’s expansionist musings, but Canada remains the most targeted of his apparent annexation ambitions.

Strategic implications

Trump’s September 30 comments may have been delivered with his characteristic bombast, but they represent a calculated escalation in a broader campaign to reshape North American relations on American terms. Whether framed as a jest or serious policy proposal, the 51st state rhetoric serves Trump’s purposes by keeping Canada off-balance and reminding Ottawa of Washington’s ultimate bargaining chip: the threat to fundamentally alter the terms of continental partnership.

As CUSMA negotiations approach and Arctic sovereignty becomes increasingly contested amid climate change and great power competition, Trump has made clear that all options remain on the table.

Generative AI assisted in the production of this story.

The Hub Staff

The Hub’s mission is to create and curate news, analysis, and insights about a dynamic and better future for Canada in a…

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