China’s decision to slap duties on Canadian canola is meant to send a message: submit to removing the tariff on Chinese EVs, or pay the price. For too long, Beijing has treated Canadian farmers as pawns in a geopolitical chess game. But this time, the message should go the other way. Canada holds the trump card. If we call China’s bluff, absorb the short-term cost, and invest in value-added capacity, we can break the cycle of economic coercion once and for all.
Here’s the math. In 2024, China bought roughly 4.6 million tonnes of Canadian canola, nearly half our exports, worth $4.9 billion CAD. That concentration makes farmers vulnerable, but it also proves Canada’s leverage in the canola market. China cannot easily replace millions of tonnes of high-quality seed. China is already diversifying its imports to buy from India and Australia, but its volumes and quality don’t come close to filling the gap. Already, Chinese futures markets are showing strain. Beijing’s tariffs punish its own consumers as much as ours.
The easy political move is to plead for the market back. That’s exactly what China wants: to condition Canada into silence on Hong Kong, Taiwan, or foreign interference, for fear of losing Prairie exports. That pattern must end. If we cave now, we send a signal that every time Ottawa makes a sovereign decision Beijing dislikes, Canadian farmers pay.
Here’s the alternative. We hold out. We crush more seeds at home. We redirect oil and meal into Japan, Europe, and Southeast Asia, where demand is growing. We invest in long-term infrastructure that makes us less dependent on one market and more resilient against coercion. Yes, losing nearly billions hurts. But it is also a once-in-a-generation chance to inoculate Prairie farmers from Beijing’s weaponization of trade.
This isn’t just economics. It’s strategy, and we need to learn the CCP’s playbook. The CCP has long played divide-and-conquer with democracies, pitting sector against sector until unity cracks. Sun Tzu called it plainly in The Art of War: “If they are well-provisioned, starve them. A great warrior takes control of others and does not let others control him.”
Comments (9)
I agree that our farmers should have more secondary processors here to add value and diversify our markets for resilience. But you can’t expect them to lose their farms to prove a point. I don’t like the issues that arise with allowing tariff free EV’s from China but let’s not fool ourselves that the Canadian car industry will exist much longer. All foreign car makers (and they are all foreign) will follow Stellantis out of Canada too.