‘Bad for Canada’s economy’: What Trump suspending trade talks over Doug Ford’s ad buy means for Canada

U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly ended trade negotiations with Canada Thursday night, citing an Ontario government advertisement as justification for the dramatic termination of trade discussions. The move comes just days before anticipated progress on reducing sectoral tariffs and weeks ahead of a crucial Supreme Court hearing on the legality of Trump’s emergency tariff powers. The Hub co-founders Sean Speer and Rudyard Griffiths analyzed the broader implications of Trump’s decision, warning that the timing suggests deeper concerns about upcoming legal challenges to the administration’s signature trade policy. Here are four key takeaways from the discussion: The Supreme Court connection makes this more than just an ad dispute: Trump’s focus on the Ontario ad coincides suspiciously with the Supreme Court taking up the legality of his tariffs on Nov. 5, suggesting heightened sensitivity to anything that might influence public opinion during judicial proceedings. Canada could become a scapegoat if tariff powers are struck down: If the Supreme Court rules against Trump’s emergency tariff authority, Canada may face retaliation as the president looks for someone to blame for the legal setback. Premier Doug Ford’s political incentives may conflict with national trade interests: The Ontario premier’s decision to stand by the Ronald Reagan ad reflects strong domestic political support for his Captain Canada “fighter” positioning, but this may complicate Prime Minister Mark Carney’s efforts to secure an economic deal. Recent trade developments suggest a broader deterioration in relations: Beyond the ad controversy, Canada has imposed reciprocal measures on Stellantis and GM, while Carney has downplayed prospects for comprehensive trade agreements. The Supreme Court connection makes this more than just an ad dispute The timing of Trump’s trade negotiation termination reveals deeper anxieties within the administration about upcoming legal challenges. “The administration has relied on these extraordinary powers granted to the executive branch for the imposition of tariffs that have been the subject of legal contestation,” Speer explained. This summer, a U.S. federal appeals court ruled that Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs exceeded his legal authority. Enforcement of the ruling was paused pending Trump’s appeal to the Supreme Court, which is scheduled to hear the case November 5th. “Trump’s focus on the ad in Canada in conjunction with the courts taking up the legality of his tariffs…[and] if his emergency tariff powers are struck down, it’s quite possible that the president would then turn to something like CUSMA…and start playing with us, with the same cruelty as my cat in the backyard with a set of wounded pigeons,” Griffiths said, emphasizing the dangerous linkage Trump appears to be making: “This is the president linking a series of things that’s dangerous for Canada.” The $75 million Ontario ad buy, featuring archival footage of former U.S. President Ronald Reagan denouncing tariffs, reportedly aired in the D.C. region during recent Major League Baseball playoff games. Canada could become a scapegoat if tariff powers are struck down The discussion highlighted concerns that Trump’s reaction to the Ontario ad may be setting up Canada as a future scapegoat. “This is a president who loves to scapegoat,” Griffiths warned. “And what I worry is if the Supreme Court goes against him, he is now in his little feral brain going to be thinking back to this ad, looking for a scapegoat and looking for Canada to blame.” Speer noted that the administration is “hypersensitive to anything that can influence or shape public opinion” regarding the judicial review of tariff powers, which he described as “its signature policy.” This sensitivity suggests that any adverse Supreme Court ruling could trigger broader retaliation against Canada beyond the current trade dispute. Doug Ford’s political incentives may conflict with national trade interests Premier Doug Ford’s decision to develop the controversial advertisement reflects strong domestic political support but may complicate federal trade efforts. “Premier Ford has something approaching Saddam Hussein levels of support in the province. And a large part of that is because he’s positioned himself as a quote-unquote ‘fighter’ vis-a-vis the Trump administration,” Speer observed. But this creates a potential conflict between provincial and federal priorities. “I worry a lot that Prime Minister Carney is focused on making the types of trade-offs and choices that he has to, in order to secure a deal,” Speer said, while “Doug Ford is more motivated by the politics of positioning himself as a fighter.” In recent months, Ontario’s economy has felt the brunt of Washington’s escalating trade measures. The Trump administration’s sectoral tariffs on key Canadian exports—most notably steel, aluminum, and auto parts—have disrupted supply chains and undercut provincial manufacturing output. Factories in Windsor and Hamilton have reported layoffs, while the province’s exports to the United States have fallen sharply. The resulting slowdown has strained provincial revenues and deepened regional anxieties about competitiveness. Against this backdrop, Ford’s populist defiance toward Washington may resonate politically in his province but risks aggravating an already fragile economic recovery dependent on cross-border trade stability. Recent trade developments suggest a broader deterioration in relations Beyond the ad controversy, several developments indicate worsening Canada-U.S. trade relations. Prime Minister Carney recently downplayed expectations for both sectoral tariff relief and comprehensive trade agreements, while Canada imposed reciprocal measures on Stellantis and GM over their decisions to shift production to the U.S. “We have to be trying to minimize the extent to which we are provoking this president, recognizing that he is erratic and unpredictable, but also responsible at the end of the day for determining whether Canadian goods can continue to enter the U.S. market at a relatively low cost,” Speer said. “And the net effect of everything that’s just played out in recent hours suggests that we are not going to have a resolution one way or the other for the foreseeable future, which is ultimately bad for Canada’s economy.” The discussion revealed how domestic political considerations are increasingly influencing trade policy decisions. Speer suggested that Canadian politicians, including Prime Minister Carney and Industry Minister Mélanie Joly, are “seeing the politics for the Ford government of being a quote-unquote ‘fighter’. And that becomes a temptation that’s hard to resist.” This commentary draws on a Hub podcast. It was edited using AI. Full program here.