The Maple Leafs and Toronto share the same problems

As we enter 2026, a sense of stagnation hangs over Canada’s largest city. This feeling finds an unexpected but perfect metaphor in the plight of its iconic hockey team, the Toronto Maple Leafs. The team recently suffered five straight losses. The conversation among fans—and increasingly, the city’s residents—is no longer about championship parades, but about a “lost decade” and a chronic absence of excellence. The decade began with soaring expectations for the Leafs. A 2018 magazine cover displayed the team’s young core (Marner, Matthews, and Nylander) with the caption “Toronto will win the Stanley Cup. It’s only a matter of when, and how many.”  Not only have there been no Stanley Cups, but there has been no meaningful playoff progress. The team, having bet its future on this core, now seems a spent force, with a playoff spot receding and an overdue rebuild looming. The frustration is palpable; for the first time in memory, games aren’t sold out. This sporting failure isn’t an isolated incident. It reflects a broader Toronto and Canadian condition. The city itself has endured its own lost decade: a transit line, billions over budget, remains unopened after years; middling architecture and condos dot the skyline; and the economy is marked by managed competition. The city’s major industries are protected from robust rivalry, much like the Maple Leafs’ monopoly position in the NHL within the Greater Toronto Area, with such a high concentration of hockey fans. This parallel reveals a shared complacency. For years, the Leafs have been good enough to make the playoffs but not to advance, running back the same core with only marginal changes, while expecting different results. Toronto, and indeed Ontario and Canada, have operated similarly. We have relied on years of deficit spending and large-scale immigration to fuel growth, while avoiding difficult structural reforms. Just as Leafs management has avoided radical change, so have our governments. The promise of being “open for business” has yielded few tangible structural reforms. The result, in both hockey and public policy, is a recurring cycle of disappointment. Critically, both the Leafs and many protected sectors operate with a form of regulated profitability. The team remains immensely valuable and profitable regardless of on-ice performance, insulated from true market consequences by a captured fan base and the absence of a local competitor. This removes the imperative for excellence. Similarly, the high cost of attending a Leafs game, fueled by corporate ticket ownership, mirrors a city where living costs soar while quality and dynamism stagnate. It points to a troubling inability to demand better. The connective tissue is a deep-seated conservatism and resistance to change. Contrast the Leafs with the league-leading Colorado Avalanche. Last year, that team identified a goaltending problem and replaced both goalies mid-season—a radical instinct against mediocrity that paid off. Such a move is completely implausible for the Leafs, just as transformative action seems implausible from our governments. We persist in studied mediocrity. Yet, there may be glimmers of readiness for change. On the rink, the sight of jerseys thrown on the ice signals fan fury. In politics, the fact that Alberta’s provincial government was recently able to move to open up health-care provision without the predicted uproar suggests that if leaders were prepared to put radical, excellence-oriented ideas on the table, they might find a responsive audience. The Leafs’ lost decade is more than a sports story. It is a reflection of Toronto’s—and Canada’s—own tolerance for protected underperformance. As a new year begins, the question is whether we will continue to accept the cycle of unmet expectations or finally demand the excellence we profess to deserve. The lesson from the rink is clear: without a decisive break from complacency, the wilderness years will continue. This commentary draws on a Hub podcast. It was edited with the use of AI. Full program here.