Why U.S. intervention in Venezuela will fail and test Canada’s diplomatic independence: Former ambassador to Venezuela

The United States’ military intervention in Venezuela and capture of leader Nicolas Maduro has created a complex geopolitical crisis that directly threatens Canadian interests, according to former Canadian ambassador to Venezuela Ben Rowswell. While Venezuelans initially celebrated Maduro’s exit, the situation has deteriorated as his regime remains intact under new leadership. Meanwhile, Washington has signaled its opposition to the country’s democratically elected leaders finally taking power. The Hub spoke with veteran diplomat Rowswell to better understand the implications of this unfolding crisis for Canada and the world. Here are five key takeaways from the conversation: 1. The Maduro dictatorship remains intact despite leadership change: Delcy Rodriguez, Maduro’s former vice president and a committed communist ideologue, now leads Venezuela as interim president, with the same power structure firmly in place. 2. The U.S. opposes a Venezuelan democratic transition: Washington has explicitly stated that Edmundo González—largely viewed as the democratically elected leader—would not be appropriate to govern Venezuela. 3. Venezuelan instability directly threatens Canada: The ongoing crisis has generated the largest mass migration in hemispheric history, testing international norms on refugee flows and creating conditions for greater regional violence. 4. Canada has real leverage to shape outcomes: Despite lacking military power, Canada could coordinate regional democracies and draw on its track record of supporting democratic transitions to influence events. 5. The U.S. intervention is likely headed for failure, similar to the war in Iraq: Without a large ground force willing to take casualties, Rowswell, who worked in both Afghanistan and Iraq, believes Washington cannot control Venezuela, and may eventually have to withdraw. The Maduro regime persists under new leadership Despite Maduro’s capture, Venezuela’s authoritarian government continues virtually unchanged under Rodriguez. “Maduro was not like a cult of personality. It was very much like a cabinet of equals,” Rowswell explained. “They’ve all just sort of closed ranks behind Delcy Rodriguez, and the regime continues virtually unchanged.” The regime has been in power for 12 years. Rodriguez represents a particularly committed ideological leader. “If there ever was someone who would read Karl Marx from cover to cover, or Engels or Lenin, and think, ‘This is exactly what we need to do in Venezuela,’ it would be her,” Rowswell said. The regime maintains fierce control through the imprisonment of political opponents, widespread torture, and street-level repression that has intensified since the 2024 election. Trump has no interest in democratic transition  The United States has emerged as the primary obstacle to Venezuela’s democratic transition, according to Rowswell. “It was galling to see the United States tell the world that they didn’t think that Maria Corina Machado or Edmundo Gonzalez would be appropriate leaders of Venezuela,” he said. Barred from running in the previous election, Gonzalez ran in Machado’s stead the last time Venezuelans headed to the polls. Opposition results, supported by Western countries, show he was the real presidential winner, beating Maduro. America’s stance puts Canada in an awkward diplomatic position. “The United States is removing that comfort from Canada by saying, ‘Actually, no, we’re going to oppress the people of Venezuela. We’re going to prevent them from having their democratically elected leader,’” Rowswell noted. The migration crisis threatens Canadian interests Venezuela’s instability has generated unprecedented migration that directly affects Canada. Since January 2015, “the largest mass movement of humans in our hemisphere ever in human history has happened,” Rowswell said. Given that the U.S. is now accepting zero refugees and other countries are following suit, “we’re now seeing the world essentially abandon any attempt to manage refugee flows,” the former ambassador added. Rowswell said this breakdown of international norms creates dangerous conditions. “Those people are going to get even more desperate. They’re still going to come by the millions, but we’re going to see greater instability,” he warned. “[The result will be] a world with higher levels of migration and greater violence because of Venezuela.” Canada could coordinate a regional response Canada possesses significant power to shape outcomes despite lacking military might. The key, he said, is coordinating with regional democracies. As the Rodriguez regime faces mounting crises—including the potential return of the beloved opposition leader Machado—Canada could facilitate a democratic transition with the help of countries in the region. American intervention faces likely defeat The U.S. lacks the means to control Venezuela without deploying substantial ground forces. Drawing on his experience serving as a Canadian diplomat in  Iraq, Rowswell noted that America wound up financing that country at a cost of $1 billion per day. Venezuela is “a lot less wealthy than Iraq was” and “a lot more damaged,” making any occupation financially unsustainable, he said. “The U.S. is headed towards defeat in Venezuela. There’s very little doubt in my mind,” Rowswell concluded. Washington will either have to send ground forces and accept casualties, or, Rowswell concludes, “Eventually say ‘Sorry, we were wrong in 2026 and we now support the democratic transition,’ and try to get on the right side of history.” This commentary draws on a Hub video. It was edited using AI. Full program here.