Canada pivoting to China for trade will make Canada a ‘vassal state’: Former ambassador to China

As Prime Minister Mark Carney pursues closer economic ties with China in the first trip to the Asian country by a Canadian leader in nearly a decade, a former Canadian ambassador to China is warning that Ottawa is repeating past mistakes and failing to understand the risks that come with further tying your country’s economy to the Middle Kingdom’s. David Mulroney, who served as Canada’s ambassador to China from 2009 to 2012, argues that the government’s rush toward Beijing represents a dangerous shortcut that ignores unresolved issues around foreign interference and sovereignty. The Hub spoke with Mulroney to better understand Canada’s current approach to China and what a more strategic response to the trade crisis with the U.S. might look like. Here are five key takeaways from the conversation: 1. Canada is choosing the easy path instead of doing the hard work of diversification: The government promised to open Canada to a broad range of markets, improve infrastructure, and reduce internal trade barriers, but instead is simply pivoting to China as a quick fix, according to Mulroney. 2. China has been consistently working to pull Canada away from traditional allies: Unlike the potentially temporary disruption in U.S.-Canada relations, China’s strategic objectives have remained constant. Canada risks becoming, in the words of Mulroney, a “vassal state” of China. 3. The government has failed to address Chinese foreign interference before pursuing closer ties: Over the past three years, Chinese influence in Canadian politics has only increased, with no meaningful consequences imposed by Ottawa. 4. Opening up Canada to Chinese EVs would devastate the domestic auto industry: China’s massive overproduction of electric vehicles is part of a dumping strategy designed to increase Chinese control over foreign automotive sectors. 5. Canada keeps repeating the same hot then cold cycle with China: Mulroney says that every few years, China punishes Canada economically over political disagreements, relations freeze, then Canada makes an “apology tour”—without ever learning from the pattern. Canada is choosing the easy path instead of real trade diversification  Mulroney argues that the Carney government’s current approach to trade diversification represents “lazy thinking”, and abandons the comprehensive economic strategy Canadians were promised. “What we were promised last year by the Prime Minister was a series of initiatives that would open Canada up to a broad range of markets and opportunities, would improve the business climate in Canada, cut down on internal barriers to trade, improve our infrastructure, and make us competitive,” the former ambassador said. Instead of pursuing structural reforms, he said the government is treating China as a simple solution to a complex problem. He emphasized that genuine diversification requires making Canada “a better destination for investment from many, many places, possibly China, but not predominantly China.” China is currently Canada’s second largest trading partner, after the U.S. China has been working for years to pull Canada away from traditional allies While the current crisis centers on unprecedented hostile but likely temporary U.S. trade policy under President Trump, Mulroney warns that China represents a fundamentally different and more persistent challenge. “China is very consistent,” he said. “They are consistently intent, I think, in pulling Canada away from its traditional allies.” He described the current dynamic as one where Canada is a vassal state and compared Carney’s approach to historical practices of foreign leaders paying tribute to Chinese leaders. “What Prime Minister Carney is doing is uncomfortably like what foreign leaders used to do with the Chinese emperors, which is, come to China and bend the knee and profess your loyalty,” the former diplomat said. The Canadian government has failed to address Chinese foreign interference before pursuing closer ties Nearly a year since the release of the final report from the foreign interference inquiry, Mulroney pointed to the government’s inaction on foreign interference as evidence that Canada is approaching China from a position of weakness. “If anything, China’s influence has increased. Chinese consuls general, the Chinese ambassador are players in Canadian politics in ways that they weren’t five years ago, 10 years ago,” he said. He cited specific examples, including a federal Liberal candidate joking about handing over, a Conservative candidate, targeted by Hong Kong authorities for the bounty offered for his capture. “By not acting on foreign interference over the last three years, we’re telling China that we’re more or less okay with it,” Mulroney argued. He noted that  announcements around an upcoming foreign agent registry were made by a minister who has had to recuse himself from issues related to the militant Sri Lankan separatist terrorist group the Tamil Tigers, undermining the effort. Opening up Canada to Chinese EVs would devastate the domestic auto industry Mulroney warned that China’s EV industry represents a “case of massive overproduction” and that Beijing is now getting rid of vehicles at below production cost in markets worldwide. “By dumping cars in Canada, cars that Canadians will happily snap up… we will become dependent on the Chinese automotive industry,” he said. He argued this represents a deliberate strategy to increase Chinese control over Canada’s automotive sector, ultimately harming Canadian workers. Currently, Canada has a 100 percent tariff on all Chinese-made EVs. But Carney’s visit this week could see it rolled back. Canada keeps repeating the same cycle Mulroney used the term “Groundhog Day” to describe Canada’s on again off, again relationship with China. “We’ve seen this movie before, and I don’t understand why Canadians don’t know how it ends,” he said. “It’ll end in another spat about something that China has done to us. Some way that China has victimized Canadians or done something internationally that we don’t approve of. We speak out, then we go into the deep freeze with China for three or four years. Then we make an apology tour.” The former ambassador emphasized that China is “categorically different” from the United States because it uses economic punishment as a political tool every few years, unrelated to market forces. This commentary draws on a Hub video. It was edited with the use of AI. Full program here.