How Carney could secure a majority without an election, after third Conservative MP floor crossing

Another Conservative MP has crossed the floor to join Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government, bringing the Liberals within three seats of a majority—a threshold the party has a strong chance of passing now without having to call a spring election. Edmonton MP Matt Jeneroux’s defection marks the third Conservative crossing since last April’s election, raising questions about the ability of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre to keep control of his caucus. In a podcast episode released after the news broke, Hub co-founders Rudyard Griffiths and Sean Speer explored the political implications of Jeneroux’s move and what it signals about the current state of Canadian federal politics. Here are four takeaways from the conversation. By-elections could deliver a majority without a voter mandate Two longtime Liberal ministers, Chrystia Freeland and Bill Blair, announced they were exiting federal politics earlier this year, leaving open seats in the Toronto ridings of Scarborough Southwest and University-Rosedale. Late last week, an additional Liberal seat opened up in the Montreal riding of Terrebonne, after the Supreme Court invalidated last year’s election results there, where the race’s result had been decided by a single vote. The vote was voided because of a defective envelope provided by Elections Canada. Griffiths and Speer agreed that the quickest path to a majority government is now clear for Carney, without the risk of him pursuing a general election. “If you think about it in practice, if and when those by-elections are held, and the government presumably holds those seats, Mr. Carney is looking at the majority that eluded him in April’s election,” Speer explained. Two of the ridings set to have byelections are Liberal strongholds. The only potential wrinkle for the governing party is that vacant seat in Terrebonne, where they could face a tough fight with the Bloc Quebecois. However, achieving a majority through floor crossings rather than a trip to the ballot box raises questions about its democratic legitimacy, noted Griffiths “You were elected by voters to represent one party, and then for reasons which are personal, subjective…you’re then changing fundamentally the balance of power in the country from a minority, which is what the 15-plus million voters in Canada awarded Carney last April, to a majority.” Jeneroux’s defection carries greater weight Unlike previous Conservative defectors, Jeneroux’s crossing represents a more substantial loss for Poilievre’s leadership because the wayward politician represents Edmonton Riverbend, a true Tory-blue riding. “Jeneroux was a member of Poilievre’s self-appointed shadow cabinet,” Speer added. “He had been a member of Parliament for some time. In that sense, I think it represents the biggest threat to Poilievre’s leadership of the three floor crossings.” Jeneroux was first elected in 2015 and had been acting as shadow minister for supply chain issues. The defection comes at a particularly challenging moment for the Conservatives, who have been struggling to find their footing since U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to the White House and began making threats about challenging Canada’s sovereignty. “Ever since Donald Trump arrived on the scene in January, the Conservatives have been on their back feet,” Speer explained. A team the PM didn’t choose  While a majority government offers obvious advantages, Carney faces a unique challenge: governing with MPs he didn’t choose. “Almost the entire slate of candidates that ran in last April’s election were ones that had been nominated under Justin Trudeau’s leadership of the Liberal Party, not Mark Carney’s,” Speer noted. This creates tension between avoiding election risks and building a government that reflects Carney’s personal vision. “For the duration of this Parliament, he’ll be stuck with a government that he himself didn’t choose and doesn’t necessarily reflect his own political ambitions,” Speer explained. “A general election would give Mr. Carney and the people around him a chance to cultivate some talent, bring in the people he wants, and form a cabinet of Carney-ites not Trudeau-ites.” Carney’s ruthless pragmatism Griffiths and Speer also highlighted how Carney has defied Conservative expectations of a technocratic, politically naive leader. “From the moment he announced as his first policy plank that he was going to kill the carbon tax, the Trudeau government signature policy, a policy that Mr. Carney himself had championed for years, [it was] was a sign that this guy was a kind of ruthless and shrewd political operator,” Speer said. Griffiths observed Carney’s ability to straddle dual personas—the banker and the calculating politician—has made him “ruthless” operator. “Carney benefits from this dual personality of the non-politician’s politician. So people go back to his background at Goldman Sachs or at central banking and they confer onto him this kind of non-partisanship halo. Yet at the same time he’s a killer. He does what needs to be done,” Griffiths noted. Speer concluded that Carney embodies the Liberal Party’s historical effectiveness. “The Liberal Party of Canada remains the most ruthlessly efficient political party in the Western world.” This story draws on a Hub video. It was edited using NewsBox AI. Full program here.