Toronto, Montreal, Edmonton hit violent crime severity records, top-20 cities all see rises except Vancouver

Fault Lines examines the pressures pulling Canadian society apart and the principles that can hold it together. We look beyond headlines to understand how institutions, communities, and democratic norms are fraying. Our mission is to show how better choices can repair what is broken. Violent crime severity has surged to record levels in most Canadian provinces over the past decade—and in 19 of 20 of Canada’s major cities—contradicting recent narratives that suggest public concerns about safety are misplaced, according to new analysis of Statistics Canada data by University of Guelph political science professor Dave Snow in The Hub. Winnipeg ranked the worst, with its violent crime severity rating jumping from 122 in 2015 to 191 in 2024. Saskatoon, Regina, and Edmonton were the other top three cities for violent crime ratings, respectively. Then came the Atlantic cities of Moncton (105), St. John’s (101), and Halifax (98). On the other end of the violent crime rankings, Ottawa was listed as the safest city in Canada. Windsor ranked second, and St. Catharines ranked third. However, those three safest cities, along with six of the other seven top 10 cities—Hamilton (fourth), Quebec City (fifth), Toronto (sixth), London (eighth), Calgary (ninth), Victoria (10th)—still saw modest increases in violent crime severity over the past decade. Vancouver was the only city where violent crime severity dropped from 2015 to 2025, but only by one point. Meanwhile, Gatineau ranked 11th and Montreal 12th for violent crime severity. Statistics Canada’s violent crime severity index measures both the volume and seriousness of criminal offences applies different weights to criminal offences based on their severity, with a murder carrying 306 times more weight than a minor assault. The index provides a more nuanced picture than simple crime rates, which count all violent incidents equally regardless of their seriousness. Acts classified as severe violent crimes include homicide, attempted murder, various levels of sexual assault and sexual violations against children, assaults (including against peace officers), firearms-related violent acts, robbery, forcible confinement/kidnapping, trafficking in persons, and extortion. Between 2023 and 2024 (the most recent data available), severity reached its highest point in seven provinces, since tracking began in 1998. In 2024, both Manitoba and Saskatchewan experienced their worst years on record, while Alberta, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland and Labrador recorded unprecedented highs in either 2023 or 2024. Ontario’s violent crime severity has climbed in the last decade, but hasn’t surpassed its historic high. “While Ontario has experienced significant growth in violent crime severity since 2014, it has not yet surpassed its levels from the mid-2000s,” noted Snow. Quebec has only just matched its highs from the early 2000s. Snow wrote that this geographic disparity helps explain why national media coverage has often understated the severity of violent crime increases elsewhere. When roughly 60 percent of Canadians live in Ontario and Quebec, national statistics can mask dramatic increases in other regions. The territories face an even more dire situation. Violent crime severity in Nunavut and the Northwest Territories has reached more than five times the national average, with both experiencing sharp increases in recent years. Nationally, violent crime severity in 2024 surpassed Canada’s mid-2000s peak, even as overall crime severity decreased. This divergence stems from a sustained decline in non-violent crime severity, which includes property crime, fraud, and drug possession. The increase in violent crime severity has coincided with mounting strain on Canada’s criminal justice system. A growing number of cases are stayed or withdrawn, police clearance rates (cases considered solved by authorities) have plummeted, and the proportion of people held in custody while awaiting trial has spiked to 86 percent in Ontario. The opioid crisis, proliferation of drug consumption sites, and experiments with decriminalization have also emerged during this period of rising violent crime. Not everyone believes the numbers paint such a worrying picture. The John Howard Society recently stated that “crime is down in Canada” and suggested that much of what is classified as violent crime “does not involve what most of us would think of as significant violence.” Major Canadian media outlets are also dismissing polls showing Canadians are increasingly concerned about crime. The Globe and Mail recently reported that there are “false perceptions about crime” because some subcategories of violent crimes are down, but this doesn’t factor in the overall picture. Snow in his research revealed that the violent crime severity index specifically accounts for the seriousness of offences, undermining media claims that rising concern stems from minor incidents. According to the professor’s research, the data suggest public anxiety about violent crime reflects lived reality rather than misperception.