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‘We bought ourselves some time’: Sean Speer on how Canada should use the next 30 days to beat U.S. tariffs

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Demonstrators hold flags as they mark the one year anniversary of the Freedom Convoy on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, on Sunday, Jan. 29, 2023. Justin Tang/The Canadian Press.

Today, our daily program on President Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs features the political analysis and insights of Sean Speer, The Hub’s editor-at-large.

To read more from Sean, click here.

The following is an automated transcript. If you are quoting from or referencing this episode, please refer to the audio to verify.

RUDYARD GRIFFITHS: Rudyard Griffiths here, the publisher of The Hub, welcome to this, our continuing video series Trump’s trade war. What we’re going to do here on YouTube and on The Hub’s website, if you’re watching this video at triple W, the hub.ca is provide you with analysis and expert opinion and commentary for some of our brightest minds writing and thinking at the hub on everything tariff related. So no surprise who we’ve got on the show today. Sean Speer, co founder of the hub, editor at large. Sean day three. What a wild, wild 24 hours. It’s been.

SEAN SPEER: Yeah, isn’t that the case? Rudyard, we were prepared yesterday, as I suspect a lot of newsrooms across the country were for the imposition of tariffs and the economic and political fallout that no doubt would soon follow. And of course, we’ve we’ve managed to secure this short term reprieve by essentially acknowledging the claims by the administration about the so called fentanyl problem when it comes to Canada, US, borders and the appointment, or soon to be, appointed, fentanyl czar to oversee a response from Canada in direct reaction to the Administration’s position that Canada has become too indifferent to drugs and migrants crossing the border. So it’s a long way to say, I guess we bought ourselves some time, but I think there are still big questions about really, what is behind the administration’s interest in imposing tariffs on Canada, and whether this issue of fentanyl and migrants is more of a sideshow or a deflection from its real motivations?

RUDYARD GRIFFITHS: Yeah, so that’s what I want to spend my time with you today and with our viewers on, is kind of what happens next. We’ve got this 30 day reprieve. I think we’ve been writing and thinking here at The Hub that that reprieve sets up a big, known unknown, which is, are these tariffs still hanging over our head like a proverbial sort of Damocles or not? I think, Sean, I’m curious your thoughts here. I think we need to go to, you know, the President’s tweets, or at least his social media post on truth social at the end of yesterday, you know, taking this kind of bizarre victory lap after, I think, seemingly folding within 48 hours. But he, at the end of that tweet, used the language that this 30 day period would be used to quote, craft an economic deal, a final economic deal. So what the heck do we make of that? Because all the talk, as you say, is about the border and fentanyl and illegal migrants. But here he is surfacing the phraseology, a final economic deal within 30 days.

SEAN SPEER: Yeah, it’s interesting, isn’t it? Rudyard, the President himself, has used different arguments to make the case for the need for tariffs on Canada everything, as you say, from fentanyl and migrants to the trade imbalance to Canada’s resistance to different American industries entering our market. Other voices from the administration have been more disciplined. They’ve been focused more singularly on the issue of fentanyl and migrants. I think, for instance, the incoming Commerce Secretary during his confirmation hearing before the Senate. And here’s the hypothesis that you and I have been talking about, and that I tested with some American legal scholars today, and got a pretty positive reaction. And it goes something like this, Rudyard as you and no doubt many of our listeners know, the Trump administration intends to use extraordinary emergency powers to impose these tariffs on Canada and Mexico. It’s actually they’re actually powers that have never been tested before when it comes to the implementation of tariffs. They’ve only up until now, been used to impose sanctions. And one wonders if the reason that the administration is focused on fentanyl and migrants, you know that is to say, threats to the American border and to the American society is because they think that that’s more likely to withstand the inevitable litigation challenges that the implementation of tariffs under these powers will no doubt face. And so in that sense, kind of counter intuitively. I think you could make the argument that agreeing to a 30 day delay in exchange for Canada and Mexico, essentially acknowledging the problem as it’s been set out by the administration, may help the administration ultimately defeat any legal challenges it faces if and when it imposes tariffs under these emergency powers, so that.

RUDYARD GRIFFITHS: such a key insight, it really gets to a kind of evil genius here that they’re causing us, potentially to react. Because we have to react. We don’t know what’s going to happen in 30 days. These tariff could be, could be reintroduced, and in acting, we created justification later in court for this administration to say, Look, don’t take our word that this was an emergency. The Mexicans have sent 10,000 troops to the border. The Canadians have 10,000 border patrol officers. Are spending, you know, a billion plus. If it’s not a crisis, then why are they reacting this way? So this, this kind of begs the question, Sean, what the heck do we do? Because we have to do this. We have to go through these maneuvers, because we don’t want these tariffs and we don’t really know what Trump wants. I mean, that’s, I think, been one of the problems from the beginning. So it goes back to something Sean, that we’ve talked a lot about here at the hub, is you have to focus on what you can control. We can’t control this president. We don’t know what he may or may not do, but what we can control is our our own decisions. And you believe, Sean, that there are some important ones, and we need to be using this 30 day period not only to try to satisfy this president, but to focus on these things that we can control, because that will create greater leverage and opportunity going forward. Explain that to our viewers.

SEAN SPEER: yeah, well said, Rudyard, even if my legal hypothesis is right and the use of this 30 day delay is ultimately about legal wranglings in the US than it is about addressing a serious problem of fentanyl crossing the American border. It was still, as you say, the right step for the Canadian government to take, if for no other reason, it’s bought us an additional 30 days to get our act together on those issues, as you say, that we can control you know, you said something to me really insightful yesterday, that one gets a sense that Donald Trump has almost like a main actor syndrome. He really wants to be dominating the agenda and having everybody respond to him. And I think, in a way, Canadian policy makers have made the mistake of succumbing to that instinct. What we need to spend the next 30 days doing is spending less time focusing on what Trump is doing and saying, and more time focusing on those, those policy levers that we can control. How do we, in effect, fortify our economy from the likely imposition of tariffs as early as next month? And I think that involves a completely different agenda than the one we’ve been that so many have been talking about in recent days. It really is fundamentally about both in boosting our competitiveness on one hand, and on the other hand, preparing for the inevitable renegotiation of the usmca, or whatever trade arrangements to follow. We want to make sure that when we get to that table, we aren’t letting him dictate the terms. We have our own plan and strategy to try to protect and advance Canadian interests.

RUDYARD GRIFFITHS: Yes, such a critical point, because, again, we don’t know what the future holds, but it’s likely a tough negotiation of what sort of the other, and if we do nothing preparatory for that negotiation other than, you know, Fra around the border to try to, you know, make big hand gestures to to satisfy Mr. Mr. Trump and and kind of busy work, we’ve lost the opportunity to begin to create some seeds of doubt in his mind and in American policy makers minds about the cost of what they’ve done, which they have, they’ve they’ve blown up a whole consensus about how trade and how the North American economy can function. They did that on on Saturday. And we need to make that into we need to have them internalize that cost. And the only way that we can do that, Sean, I think, is things like we should be having a First Ministers Meeting in the next 30 days to announce 100 day fast track to free trade within Canada. We need to similarly be having Fast Track conversations on getting oil to tide water. We need to reopen discussions on Canada east, bringing a pipeline out from Alberta into, you know, some offloading point that lets us sell oil and energy quickly to Europe. Same for big natural gas. LNG, we got to do a whole bunch of things now that makes them, them realize that if they really want to go ahead with us and have a maximal negotiation and try to extract everything they possibly can and give very little back in return. Well, guess what? We’re starting to lay the track for our plan B for an economy that is less reliant on America, and can start to either Charge America higher prices for our goods, because we have. There markets that we can take them to, or just a candidate generally, that’s less dependent on this uncertain, unsteady and increasingly untested partner to the south.

SEAN SPEER: Yeah, well said. And what I like so much about what you just outlined, Rudyard, is it seeks to channel this spike in nationalism that we’ve seen in recent days in a confident, self assured and ultimately positive sum direction. You know, one of my biggest fears, something we’ve talked about both on our daily show as well as the Friday roundtable, is the risk that it manifests itself in a defensive or parochial nationalism that effectively tries to shield the country from market forces and and global competition. And I think the vision that you’re outlining says in this new moment, we’re going to play offense, we’re going to deregulate and liberalize our economy and unleash the animal spirits in the name of of getting our products and our ideas to different markets around the world, competing with the US and others in a global economy. I think that’s precisely the kind of vision that the country needs right now, and my sense Rudyard is is one actually, that people have a hunger for that, that in the face of what’s gone on over the past few days, they’re looking for leadership. They’re looking for reassurance. And what I take solace in Rudyard is, is the sense that, well, the US may not be a partner we can rely on as much as we’ve had in the past. That doesn’t mean the answer is to turn inward, to effectively hand over agency to Donald Trump or someone else.

RUDYARD GRIFFITHS: Yeah, putting Kentucky bourbon back on the shelves of the LCBO, my friends, is just not is not going to do it. We need to use these this 30 days to start to sprint and start to create some doubt in Americans minds again about what they’ve done and the fact that we’re not putting Humpty, but Dumpty back together. Canada is heading off in a different direction. Sean, thank you so much for coming on the program today. I know it’s been a crazy day for you and the editorial team, staying abreast of all this fast breaking news, but you can see all of Sean’s hard work in The Hub today. Go to our website, triple w the hub.ca for fast breaking commentary and analysis on everything trade and tariff related, and also just a reminder that The Hub is here to support Canadian businesses. If you are a business owner with half a dozen or more employees, we want to help you by giving to you free access to our best commentary and analysis. This is normally a paid group subscription. We’re going to give these away, though, to Canadian businesses, because we think if all of us get better informed, our individual and collective responses to this unprecedented threat we’re facing can only improve. So send us an email to subscription at the hub.ca if you are a business owner, if you and your employees want to get up to speed on all of our best paid content, we’re going to comp you in, because when we stand together, we stay together, and we come at the other end of this stronger than ever. I’m Rudyard Griffiths, thanks for watching this edition of Trump’s trade war. Back to you with more videos shortly.

The Hub Staff

The Hub’s mission is to create and curate news, analysis, and insights about a dynamic and better future for Canada in a single online information source.

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