In the latest episode of Hub Dialogues, Theo Argitis, The Hub’s editor-at-large for business and economics, is joined by John Kirton, founder and director of the G7 Research Group at the University of Toronto. In the lead-up to the G7 Summit in Kananaskis, Alberta, they discuss possible areas of consensus amongst attending world leaders, what to expect from Prime Minister Carney’s emerging global agenda, and how Canada–U.S. relations could evolve in the aftermath.
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THEO ARGITIS: All right, so what’s at stake at Kananaskis? Can we expect the summit to really resolve some of the big issues facing the world right now?
JOHN KIRTON: A lot—and yes. First, as you mentioned, it’s a world of multiple crises coming at us very quickly, all at once as never before—and they’re all interconnected: from the wars in Ukraine, the Middle East, and elsewhere, to the dangers they pose to the global economy, to President Trump’s reluctance to step forward and lead with a strong response against Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine; and of course, the existential threat of climate change.
Then there are the unknown risks and rewards brought to us by the new kid on the block—artificial intelligence and quantum computing coming next.
THEO ARGITIS: And what outcome do you expect? What deliverables should we be expecting from the G7 leaders next month?
JOHN KIRTON: I think a fair bit, not nearly as many as all of their voters and leaders of democratic powers would want and hope. But none of them, at the end of the summit, is going to walk out and say, “Look, I failed to make a better world.”
Even if they point fingers, everyone will say, “You’re supposed to be a global leader.” Past G7 summits have overcome great divides, even as the G8, with Russia’s Vladimir Putin at the table.
If they fail to act, it will harm their own voters—the cost of living goes up, inflation rises, budgets tighten, and another pandemic could hit.
Even Donald Trump, who wants big, credible wins, will want to highlight areas of agreement. And there are many. For example, China poses a threat across the G7: Trump points to opioids killing American kids; Canada and Europe face similar issues. That’s an easy win.
Illegal immigration is another area of agreement.
Artificial intelligence? Americans may lean toward no government regulation, but Europeans and Canadians will likely argue for controls due to what they consider real risks. If the U.S. leaves it to private inventors, China will get it too. Why just give away the grand prize of American innovation? It’s a real new arms race, if you will.
AI was actually born in Canada, at the University of Toronto, by my colleague Geoffrey Hinton. The global governance of AI was created at the G7 Summit in Charlevoix, Quebec, under Trudeau. That summit made 24 AI-related commitments, more than any other until Italy’s summit last year. Kananaskis will need to build on those commitments.
THEO ARGITIS: And the economic tensions? I mean, the U.S. has almost declared some type of economic warfare against its G7 partners. What should we expect on trade tensions and Trump’s efforts to reshape the trading order?
JOHN KIRTON: It depends on Trump’s mood when he arrives—he’s confirmed he’s coming, so we’ll see.
He calls himself “the tariff man” and has imposed tariffs even on allies. But he has recently backed down—delayed tariffs not only on China but also on the UK. Canada will push for the same.
When Carney visited Trump, they discussed the USMCA. They agreed it was a good deal but needs updates. I think we’ll see progress at Kananaskis: fewer barriers, more cooperation, and momentum ahead of full renegotiations, which are due in 2026.
THEO ARGITIS: There’s talk of some kind of “Banff Accord” on economic stability or a depreciation deal for the U.S. dollar. Is that realistic?
JOHN KIRTON: Possibly—even called the Trump Accord. Trump likes big wins, and of course, ones named after him. The situation is similar to 1985’s Plaza Accord: exchange rates are shaky, and trust in the U.S. dollar is declining.
Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating for the first time since 1917. Borrowing costs rose, mortgages passed 7 percent. That’s dangerous when leaders like Trump and Carney have promised their voters affordable housing.
Credit costs hit consumers fast—credit cards, lines of credit. So I think coordinated G7 action and intervention is on the table, like in 1985, to stabilize markets.
THEO ARGITIS: And what about rookie G7 leader Mark Carney? How will his leadership shape Canada’s position?
JOHN KIRTON: We’ll get substance, not slogans or cute tweets. He’ll focus on hard issues with real solutions. I think he’s sufficiently well respected by all of his fellow G7 leaders, including Trump.
Carney’s biggest test is to get Trump to understand that Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine isn’t just about Ukraine. It’s about all of us, our cherished democracies, our economies.
He’ll be backed by leaders Trump respects and likes to listen to: Starmer in the U.K., Meloni in Italy, and Macron of France. We’ll see how Trump bonds with the new German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz. These dynamics will matter.
THEO ARGITIS: And how would you characterize Carney’s foreign policy instincts?
JOHN KIRTON: He’s by no means a pragmatist, nor a technocrat. He’s said: if the U.S. retreats from leadership into isolationism, Canada will step up and lead globally. So far, he’s been true to his word and done that.
The Kananaskis summit is his first outing on the world stage. He’ll need to lead, and the others will be forced to follow with major agreements, rather than delaying action to the G20 summit in South Africa or next year’s G7 in France.
THEO ARGITIS: What role will the G7 play in a Trumpian global order?
JOHN KIRTON: It’ll be more central. Trump is skipping the G20 but is committed to the G7.
G7 foreign ministers recently reached a major consensus on maritime security, ports, and cyber threats.
Extreme weather events—wildfires, for example—also threaten supply chains. Americans under President Trump may avoid the phrase “climate change,” but they understand risk when it hits home, as it did in Los Angeles earlier this year.
The insurance industry, among others, is pressuring leaders to act before financial systems collapse.
THEO ARGITIS: Last question—if you were advising Carney, what would you tell him to prioritize this year?
JOHN KIRTON: Implement past commitments—including the 34 made during Trump’s first term that were due by 2025.
One example: ending fossil fuel subsidies. Why do we have our governments, with our taxpayers’ dollars, subsidizing fossil fuel, which kills so many people and other living things in so many ways?
Focus on ending the use of coal, securing energy through transition—solar, wind, hydropower, geothermal, wave, tidal. Canada and the U.S. have massive coastlines—these technologies work, they just need scaling.
Getting energy systems right is key to growth, resilience, and ending dependence on Russian oil, which still reaches G7 countries and undercuts Ukraine support.
