Expect a (relative) urban housing comeback in 2023

To close out the year, we’ve asked our contributors and staff to make a prediction about 2023. You would think, after last year, that we’d have learned our lesson about making predictions, but we couldn’t resist. Feel free to save these if you want to embarrass us with them later.

Cities will be more attractive in 2023

By Steve Lafleur

COVID really scrambled housing markets in the GTA and Lower Mainland. Previously red-hot urban
housing markets (condos in particular) took a back seat to real estate outside of major cities.

While housing prices outside of major cities were already getting pushed up by people fleeing Toronto and Vancouver home prices, COVID was a major accelerant. Anecdotes about people moving to rural areas or smaller cities well outside of normal commuting range became normal.

This trend reversed sharply in 2022 as the realities of commuting came back into focus. As white-collar professionals began gradually returning to the office, cities looked more attractive again. I think this will continue in 2023, as office dwellers move from occasional office appearances to somewhat more regular commuting.

While it’s hard to say what will happen with the overall housing market in the short term, my hunch is that housing in major cities will outperform the rest of the country.

At least one authoritarian leader won’t see the end of 2023 in power

By Patrick Luciani

Predictions are no better than wishful thinking. Even if you guess right, they happen for the wrong reasons.

With that caveat, here are mine. In the coming year, one of the following won’t see the end of the year; V. Putin, Xi Jinping, or Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. All three are sitting on domestic political time bombs, and one is sure to explode.

If I had to choose, the one most likely to end badly is Khamenei. When protestors include most women in your country, there’s little hope that you’ll survive. Even the Supreme Leader’s niece wants him out.

Putin will probably hang in since he’s surrounded by 30,000 to 50,000 Pretorian Guards. They’ll protect him as long as he pays them.

In China, Xi is safe if COVID-19 doesn’t get out of hand. That might change now that all mandates are gone. With low vaccination rates, especially among the old, 2023 could be disastrous for China’s economy and the Communist Party.