A pair of byelections in Manitoba on Monday will give the Conservative Party an early test of its electoral strategy of beating back opposition from the populist Right while poaching vulnerable seats from the governing Liberals.
The stark contrast between the two ridings could give some clues about the level of difficulty Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre will face keeping the floor of support provided by the party’s partisan base, while pushing up the ceiling of possible ballots cast by swing voters to secure the party a majority victory in the next general election.
A total of four byelections across the country will bring voters to the polls on Monday, but the Conservatives appear to be throwing everything they’ve got at the Manitoba race in Portage—Lisgar, where the party’s main competition is People’s Party of Canada leader Maxime Bernier.
“Their focus is to absolutely destroy Maxime Bernier and the PPC. It is unusual to be ordering all MPs to leave Ottawa weeks ago, before the House rises, and to bring all their staff and to go full tilt,” says Fred DeLorey, the former national campaign manager for the Conservative Party, who also served as director of political operations to Stephen Harper.
DeLorey says the byelections present two distinct opportunities for the party and that the Conservatives should mount a strong showing in Winnipeg South Centre, the other Manitoba riding that will be decided by a byelection on Monday.
“I don’t know what’s going to happen, but the Conservatives should be able to at least mount a strong challenge and potentially upset and win that seat,” says DeLorey. “If they’re not going to win, at least everyone will just be talking about Portage.”
Regarding which seat is more important for the Conservatives to win, Royce Koop, a professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says it is a question for Poilievre to answer.
“What’s more important to the overall fortunes of the party? Showing they can beat the Liberals in this… naturally Liberal seat, or crushing Maxime into the dust permanently?” Koop says. “There are benefits to both, and I think that probably given what I’ve seen from Poilievre, they’re more concerned with meeting this challenge that Bernier is providing in Portage-Lisgar.”
Many Conservative MPs have travelled to Manitoba since the byelection was called, including those from outside the province like former party leader Andrew Scheer, who spoke in support of Branden Leslie, the Conservative candidate in Portage-Lisgar in Winnipeg on May 18. Pierre Poilievre himself appeared in Manitoba as well in support of Leslie, as well as Damir Stipanovic, the candidate in Winnipeg South Centre.
The seat of former interim Conservative leader Candice Bergen, Portage-Lisgar is a safe seat for the party; however, the PPC candidate received more than 20 percent of the riding’s vote in the 2021 federal election. DeLorey says the Conservatives will certainly retain the riding, but crushing Bernier could end the PPC’s legitimacy as an alternative to the Conservatives.
In the 2021 election, the margin of loss for the Conservatives was less than the total number of votes cast for the PPC in over 20 ridings. DeLorey says the PPC cost the Conservatives several of those seats, and bringing its former supporters back into the fold is important for the Conservatives.
“The PPC has no organization. It is really a vanity project for Maxime Bernier and this is an opportunity for the Conservative Party to finally destroy it, particularly with Maxime’s name on the ballot himself,” says DeLorey. “It’s not just a byelection.”
Despite the Conservative Party’s efforts in Portage-Lisgar, a poll released by Mainstreet Research on Thursday suggested 27 percent of the riding’s voters intended to vote for Bernier, which while still well-behind Branden Leslie, would be an increase from the PPC’s 2021 result there.
Winnipeg South Centre, which, unlike the more rural Portage-Lisgar, is in the middle of Canada’s sixth-largest city. While a reliably Liberal seat, Winnipeg South Centre went to the Conservatives in the 2011 federal election when the party won a majority, along with a large array of seats in urban centres.
“I think it’s definitely an uphill battle. It’s hard to tell in some of these byelections, but what we know are the fundamentals of this seat, it’s a naturally Liberal seat,” says Koop. “I think they have a shot but it’s always going to be an uphill battle for the Tories in this seat.”
According to another Mainstreet Research poll conducted in Winnipeg South Centre, the Liberal candidate currently has a 20-point lead.
The first byelection contested by the Conservatives under Poilievre was in Mississauga-Lakeshore in December. Like Winnipeg South Centre, Mississauga-Lakeshore is a riding that was won by the Conservatives in the 2011 federal election, but is usually won by Liberals and was retained by them in the byelection.
Two other byelections will also be contested on June 19 in the ridings of Oxford in Ontario, and Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount in Quebec, which are considered to be respectively safe Conservative and Liberal seats.
Geoff Russ is a writer and policy manager in Vancouver. He was formerly a journalist with The Hub.
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