Coming out of this month’s COP28 conference in Dubai, 22 countries (including the United States, Canada, Japan, and others) signed a pledge to triple the global amount of nuclear power by 2050. It represents a positive (albeit unenforceable) step forward for nuclear power’s global reputation rehabilitation and potential future success.
Nuclear power represents a carbon-free, reliable source of electricity that has the potential to supply global electricity grids with the large amounts of electricity that they will need to effectively decarbonize. Without nuclear, there is an open question as to what will be the baseload sources for the grid and ultimately if our climate goals are attainable. As David Frum bluntly put it in a recent podcast with The Hub: “if you got a plan to get to net-zero in 12 years, and it doesn’t include nuclear, it’s drugs.”
While renewables like wind and solar can overcome their intermittency issues when paired with grid-scale batteries, and this could prove one avenue for baseload power, this pairing remains largely untried (and currently very costly) in practice. The other possible sources are natural gas or coal power plants, which are reliant on burning fossil fuels and would increase our carbon emissions.
Yet, with the IEA forecasting anywhere between 80-150 percent increases in global demand for electricity by 2050, there’s going to be massive new demand for stable, reliable power. Herein lies the potential for nuclear as a substitution for coal and gas.
Recent history shows that nuclear energy can is a clean, efficient, and reliable source. According to the IEA, between 1971 and 2020, global electricity emissions were 20 percent lower due to nuclear energy than they would otherwise have been. Ensuring we build nuclear plants instead of coal and gas plants will therefore result in continued emissions reductions from the power sector, helping to hit global climate targets, which will be otherwise unfeasible.
In addition to established nuclear countries like France and South Korea signing on to the pledge, non-nuclear countries like Poland, Ghana, Mongolia, and Morocco have also signed on. This is an encouraging sign of clear interest from a wide range of grids and geographic areas. Not only would a global tripling allow for a greater amount of carbon-free power, but it would also present numerous commercial opportunities for Canada.
Much of the reason that nuclear power does not have more widespread backing is the financial uncertainty surrounding successful execution. Western-built nuclear projects face consistent issues with cost and time overruns; the latest project completed in the U.S. was $16 billion over budget and seven years late, while in Britain, the country’s major project is already £3 billion over budget and a year behind schedule, with expected operation not until 2027.
Canada has a major opportunity to seize the commanding heights of what could be a major export industry of the future and secure investment in a key value-adding industry for generations. Canada has done this before by developing and exporting the CANDU-model reactor to Pakistan (1971), Argentina (1984), South Korea (1983), Romania (1977), and China (1998), demonstrating the reach and influence that we were able to exert. The next frontier in nuclear is Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), aimed at reducing the complexity of the projects, making them more cost-manageable and quicker to build.
Ontario Power Generation has been leading the way, signing deals with Poland and the Czech Republic for the construction and development of future SMRs. OPG has also taken a major step by aiming to have a new SMR at Darlington by 2029, in cooperation with GE Hitachi and the Tennessee Valley Authority. This new build will be a test case demonstration of the strength of Canada’s nuclear industry while also bringing in foreign expertise to maximize the chances of a successful completion.
Another recent major milestone that demonstrates the growing strength of Canada’s nuclear sector is the partnership between Cameco and Brookfield to purchase Westinghouse. Not only will this diversify and further expand Cameco’s business, but it also grants access to the company and people who completed the most recent large-scale nuclear build in the US. Cameco also signed a 12-year deal in 2023 with Ukraine to export all of Ukraine’s uranium needs for processing in Canada to produce fuel for Ukraine’s nuclear power plants. Previously, Ukraine’s nuclear fuel primarily came from Russia.
Helping to further revitalize Canadian exports has been the recent approval from Minister Wilkinson to provide $3B in export financing to Romania. This was agreed to in exchange for Canadian participation in expanding Romania’s only nuclear plant (which was originally a Canadian design). This, along with the decision to include nuclear energy in the federal Green Bond Framework, have been positive steps from the government. Along with highly positive public statements from Pierre Poilievre, a political consensus on support for nuclear has seemingly emerged at the federal level in Canada.
For Canadian exports to be successful in a timely manner over the long term, we must work to address long approval processes in foreign import markets often related to a lack of institutional expertise in nuclear matters. Here, the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission has a role to play in working with international regulatory agencies and speeding the approval process while maintaining safety standards.
To this end, the CNSC has demonstrated its ability and has existing bilateral agreements with 46 other countries to harmonize standards and information exchanges. These agreements must be given more political priority to advance exports, and there have been examples of this being the case, with a new agreement to make a shared technical review process specific to SMRs being signed with Poland in February 2023. A more proactive approach to regulatory and safety measures with other countries can help to quell any concerns and develop new markets for Canadian nuclear exports.
Finally, not only will leadership on SMRs open doors for increased domestic economic development, but it will also offer our friends and allies abroad increased options to use non-Russian or Chinese nuclear technology. Utilizing our domestic capacity to provide nuclear fuel along with specialized nuclear services can allow them to pivot from their current reliance on Russia and China. By providing the ability for them to disconnect from these sources, we can help advance the Western political coalition by denying gains to China and Russia. A contribution from Canada to help preserve global norms around nuclear usage would be valuable to reclaiming our role as an important and contributing power in the years ahead.
The keystone in this vision is the Darlington project. If it can be even relatively successful in terms of being on time and on budget, global prospects for SMRs will increase dramatically and opportunities will flow to Canadian businesses. Helping countries like Poland, Ghana, Mongolia, and Morocco build their grids using modern, safe, reliable technology will yield significant climate benefits and strengthen Canada’s global advantage when it comes to nuclear energy.
