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Housing prices will fall in 2023, but not enough for young buyers

Commentary

To close out the year, we’ve asked our contributors and staff to make a prediction about 2023. You would think, after last year, that we’d have learned our lesson about making predictions, but we couldn’t resist. Feel free to save these if you want to embarrass us with them later.


Housing prices won’t meaningfully fall and the Liberals will win another byelection

By Geoff Russ

1. Housing prices will not meaningfully change for Canadians under the age of 35. Despite a noticeable drop in prices, it will not be enough to match the incomes of Millennials and Generation Z who will continue to wallow in mild misery. 

2. The Liberals will win the byelection to fill Jim Carr’s seat of Winnipeg South Centre. Like with Mississauga-Lakeshore, pundits will assert it means Pierre Poilievre cannot possibly win a majority despite abysmal turnout and a lack of effort and money devoted to the byelection by the Conservatives. 

3. The war in Ukraine will grind to a stalemate-like deadlock where the borders of Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine resemble the pre-invasion boundaries of 2021. Divisions between pragmatists and hardliners in both Russia and the West become more prominent, especially in the United States with the Republican-held House, and among EU member states. 

4. MAiD will not cease to be a hot-button topic, with the public growing more repulsed by reports of inappropriate offerings of MAiD as a solution to problems caused by the health-care system’s shortcomings. The Liberals will withdraw and redraft MAiD legislation by the year’s end. 

5. Doug Ford’s approval ratings will plummet to pre-pandemic nadirs. Talks will begin of potential replacements for Ford within the PCs, which will underscore the change of leadership within the Ontario Liberal Party as they select their own new leader. 

6. Danielle Smith wins a hair-thin majority due to retaining enough seats in suburban Calgary and rural Alberta. She will lose the popular vote, but due to Alberta’s current two-party system, also retain a majority. Emboldened UCP MLAs try to push Smith around with the threat of leaving the party and destroying her majority. 

7. The Manitoba PCs are blown out by Wab Kinew’s NDP. Heather Stefanson steps down. Shelly Glover enters the race to succeed Stefanson and is considered the frontrunner. Much of Canada is unaware the entire time. 

8. David Eby does not call an early election in B.C., and moves quickly to ram through heavy-handed, populist-tinged policies on housing and healthcare. It will be feted as bold and innovative, but the effects will not be felt until 2024. B.C. United/B.C. Liberal Opposition leader Kevin Falcon is interviewed by The Hub

9. John Tory learns to love being a “strong mayor” and uses his new powers with much more frequency than promised. Mark Sutcliffe breaks his promise not to use the new powers and does so infrequently. 

10. Frank Ocean releases his next album before headlining Coachella 2023. 

Russia’s missteps mean the war in Ukraine will worsen in 2023

Commentary

To close out the year, we’ve asked our contributors and staff to make a prediction about 2023. You would think, after last year, that we’d have learned our lesson about making predictions, but we couldn’t resist. Feel free to save these if you want to embarrass us with them later.


War in Ukraine will worsen and dissent will continue in China

Amal Attar-Guzman

Five predictions about global affairs in 2023:

1. The Ukraine war will still be raging throughout 2023, with conditions worsening and NATO being much more involved. Ever since Ukraine’s accidental friendly fire towards Poland, Russia losing its stronghold on Kherson, and Russian troops being tricked into wasting ammunition on dummy Ukrainian targets, conditions on the ground have been tense. This has worsened with Putin’s reasserting Russia’s nuclear capabilities with the Yars missile complex capable of hitting the U.S. and the U.K. While it can be argued that Putin may be posturing due to Russia currently losing the war, conditions are nonetheless precarious, ensuring the war to not only be constant in 2023 but will actually worsen, especially since Russia still controls 17 percent of Ukrainian territory. Don’t be surprised if you hear more about energy security, critical minerals, mutually assured destruction, and military involvement throughout 2023. 

2. Eastwards, with COVID lockdown protests that occurred recently in China and the government’s response to loosen mandates, more protests and dissent will continue in China. Consequently, not only will the global community have a vested interest in these protests, it will have more of an interest in what has been occurring to the Uyghur population. Throughout the FIFA world cup tournament, this has already garnered for two reasons: one, due to the controversy of the China Railway Construction Corporation having built Lusail stadium, a construction firm that previously built a prison used to detain Uyghurs. And second, soccer player Mesut Özil was barred from playing in the World Cup by the German national team because of his outwardly protesting against the treatment of Uyghurs in China. FIFA fans have caught wind of the situation and showed solidarity throughout the tournament. In attempts to ease upcoming domestic challenges, China will give more of its focus on Taiwan and the South China Sea, focusing on regional and global affairs to control domestic affairs under the guise of patriotism and security reasons. 

3. Regarding FIFA, months after the World Cup, Qatar will start becoming a major tourism hub in the Middle East in 2023, competing with other hot tourist spots in the region such as Dubai. While there has been some controversy regarding human rights, LGBTQ+ rights, and the strict rules about alcoholic beverages throughout the tournament, many fans from all around the world claimed that they enjoyed their time there. Further, commentators have called their hosting of the World Cup a success. This success may translate into future tourism and diplomatic wins for the monarchy. 

4. Speaking of royal families, republican sentiment will rise in Canada in 2023, with Canadians questioning the role of the Crown in Canada. Back in October, Canadians were almost equally split on whether it was now a good time or not to open the constitution and cut ties with the British monarchy. However, with Netflix’s Harry and Meghan documentary, Prince Harry’s book Spare coming out in early January, and King Charles III’s coronation in early May, Canadians will surely be questioning its systemic relevance, especially with rumours of King Charles III visiting Canada in his first visit since becoming monarch. Despite the monarchy primarily focusing on Canada, questions of its relevance and cost will surely come up. We’re already seeing that with his recent 2022 royal tour.  

5. Not a likely prediction, but here it goes: despite all the global challenges, in 2023 the world will relatively come together to fight against climate change, and finally, some sort of global consensus will be achieved in protecting our planet. Hey, just trying to be optimistic here.