The Weekly Wrap: Get ready for a historic majority if the Conservatives have captured the cities too

Commentary

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre arrives to Parliament Hill in Ottawa, June 19, 2024. Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press.

In The Weekly Wrap Sean Speer, our editor-at-large, analyses for Hub subscribers the big stories shaping politics, policy, and the economy in the week that was.

The Weekly Wrap typically covers three issues or topics from the previous week. But this week there were two stories (besides U.S. President Joe Biden’s debate “fiasco”) that stood out: the Conservative victory in the Toronto—St. Paul’s by-election and game seven of the Stanley Cup final.

Are we seeing the start of a major political transformation?

There’s much to say about this week’s Conservative victory in the Toronto—St. Paul’s by-election. A lot of it—particularly the implications for Prime Minister Trudeau and the Liberal Party—has already been said here at The Hub and elsewhere. I think the most interesting part of the by-election outcome is the potential Conservative gains in cities and their upsides and downsides in the context of a possible Conservative government.

Darrell Bricker, who I think is Canada’s most insightful political commentator, has said that Canadian elections are decided by suburban voters who in any given election have to determine whether their issues and interests have more in common with rural voters, in which case they vote for Conservatives, or urban voters, in which they vote for Liberals. This week’s by-election signaled a world in which urban voters side with suburban and rural voters in favour of the Conservatives. The consequences could be huge.

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