Harold Macmillan was once asked what the most troubling problem of his Prime Ministership was. His reply: “Events, my dear boy, events.” It is a safe bet to imagine that our leaders are similarly worried after this week’s momentous news. In the time it took a high-velocity round to cross 150 yards, Donald Trump was revalorized as a courageous and death-defying leader, and Joe Biden spared a party putsch by Americans’ sudden desire for political stability in the nation’s highest office. With this one seemingly random event, Trump’s chances of victory have gone from a coin toss to odds on favourite to win in November.
The economic risks of a second Trump presidency to Canada cannot be overstated. The country’s prosperity is in the crosshairs, and wishing away the headshot that is currently aimed at our closest trading and security relationship isn’t a viable strategy for survival.
The key thing policymakers need to understand about a second Trump presidency is its immediate and relentless velocity. To state the obvious, there is no third term for Trump, despite the fever dreams of MSNBC. In the first year of his administration, two at the most, Trump will have to cement his legislative and executive agenda, with whatever time leftover being used to stake his vainglorious claim for a spot on Mount Rushmore.
What will Trump’s whirlwind agenda look like? The end of “forever wars,” including Ukraine, de-escalation with China over Taiwan, and reescalation of conflict with Iran. Mass deportations of illegal immigrants and the closing of the U.S. southern border to Mexico. A global tariff regime that funds large tax cuts for the American middle class and corporations. The disassembly of big swaths of the U.S. federal government from the IRS to the EPA to the SEC. A new Federal Reserve chairman and loose monetary policy that stokes inflation and higher bond yields.
All these key planks of Trump’s “America First” agenda will have profound consequences for Canada.
