Canada’s major cities are rapidly losing children, with Toronto leading the way

Since 2016, the number of children under the age of 10 as a proportion of the population has shrunk in every one of Canada’s six largest cities. Most of these major cities are losing children at a rate faster than Canada’s overall national decline.

The census metropolitan area of Toronto (which includes Toronto and the cities of Vaughan, Mississauga, Brampton, Markham, and six smaller communities) saw the greatest decrease in children under the age of 10 per 1,000 people, with a drop of nearly 11 children in that proportion in five years.

In 2016, Toronto had nearly the same children per 1,000 residents as Canada’s average of 120. The population then rapidly declined, making it and Vancouver the only major Canadian cities to fall below the national average.

From 2016 to 2021, Toronto shed a whopping 32,990 children. It and Montreal, which had a loss of 1,705, were the only major Canadian cities to experience a total decline in children.

In the remaining four cities (Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa-Gatineau, Vancouver), the number of children grew marginally. However, the addition of children in these cities was not enough, relative to general population growth, to keep their proportion per 1,000 residents from declining.

Across Canada’s six biggest cities, Vancouver had the lowest proportion of children under the age of 10. The B.C. city has been below the national proportion since at least 2016, followed by Toronto in its low number of children. Between 2016 and 2021, Vancouver’s children grew by 2,365, but its proportion of 0-10-year-olds decreased by 6.36.

Vancouver’s fewer children are the result of the city’s high cost of living which necessitates young couples delaying family formation, reporting has suggested. Others have pointed to Vancouver’s challenging rental market, known to include landlords not friendly to couples with children. The government has recently announced it is stepping in.

Surprisingly given its reputation of affordability, Calgary experienced the country’s second greatest decline of children per 1,000 residents—from 2016’s 141 to 2021’s 133, seeing a net increase of only 75 children during those years. Calgary nevertheless ranks among Canada’s six largest cities as having the highest proportion of young children. Between the six cities, it moved from the number one spot in 2016 to number two in 2021, behind Edmonton.

Edmonton experienced the smallest decline in children per capita, falling from 2016’s 139 to 2021’s 135 per 1,000 residents, seeing a net increase of 8,615.

Zooming into Toronto, the epicentre of Canada’s housing and cost of living crises, it’s evident that a loss of children under the age of nine is driven by fewer arriving or being born in the city’s northeast and central neighbourhoods, namely Etobicoke North, Humber River-Black Creek, and Don Valley West. Central Scarborough has also seen a notable decline. Areas appearing to lose fewer children include York Centre, lower-central Toronto, and the recently developed Etobicoke-Lakeshore. Only Spadina-Fort York saw a rise in its proportion of children in 2021, by less than one child (0.3).

Economist and Hub contributor Mike Moffat has shown that young families are essentially “driving (out of Toronto) until they qualify for a home,” settling instead in areas such as Barrie, Ont., and Hamilton.