Last week, Canada followed the lead of the United States and the European Union by imposing a 100 percent tariff on Chinese-manufactured electric vehicles (EV), along with 25 percent tariffs on Chinese aluminum and steel.

The tariff announcement comes as Chinese EV imports into Canada may soon surpass that of the United States, experts have told The Hub. The consequences, including for the Trudeau government’s 100 percent zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate, could be significant.

Between 2022 and 2023, the value of passenger EVs imported from China grew from just $84 million to $2.2 billion.

Over the same timeframe, the value of EVs imported from the United States shrunk by over $2 billion, from $4.8 billion to $2.7 billion. As of 2023, American EV imports are still greater than those of China. But the value of its imports relative to China’s fell from $4.7 billion to just $573 million over the course of the year.

The value of Canada’s EV imports from all other countries rose by $2 billion in these years. Imports from Canada’s next greatest suppliers, South Korea and Germany, rose from $730 million and $317 million to just $1.2 billion and $820 million, respectively.

It’s highly likely that without Canada’s new EV tariff, China’s low costs and high production output would have seen Chinese EV imports surpass U.S. imports, Moshe Lander, senior economics lecturer at Concordia University, told The Hub.

China’s EV advantage is evident when it is compared to the history of America’s broader automotive industry, said Lander.

“What (China) realised was, rather than trying to fight last century’s automobile battle, let’s fight this century’s automobile battle.” China’s lack of a global combustion-engine vehicle industry allowed it to instead hyperfocus on building and exporting EVs. By 2030 their domestic vehicle sales could be more than 50 percent battery electric, two years ahead of previous forecasts.

As a result, China has just achieved “hockey stick-style growth” in its EV imports into Canada which reflects its flat to rapid growth, resembling the stark curve of a hockey stick, said Lander.

This progress is due to several factors, including relatively low labour costs, hundreds of billions of dollars in direct and indirect subsidies, and China’s growing dominance and protection of the EV materials supply chain. The result is to significantly lower the Chinese EV sector’s fixed costs.

“Once you start to achieve scale–you get to the millionth vehicle or ten millionth vehicle–the cost (of EV production) starts to drop rapidly because you can spread that billion-dollar factory cost over more and more units. As cost comes down, the ability to capture market share from those that haven’t reached that scale…becomes reinforcing. They gain more scale and get more sales, so they gain more scale,” said Lander.

These underlying factors as well as EV giant Tesla’s recent move to manufacture in Shanghai, China have contributed to Canada’s increase in EV imports from China and the decline of those from the U.S.

Yet, in the old battle for Canada’s combustion-engine market share, American imports still hold a peerless position.

In 2023, the value of imported U.S. passenger motor vehicles (excluding EVs) was 41 percent of Canada’s total from around the world. China’s share was just 5 percent.

As for EVs, Canada’s tariffs are aimed at creating policy alignment with the U.S. given the integration of our auto sector, Vina Nadjibulla, the vice president of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, told The Hub.

In the short term, the impact of Canada’s tariffs on Chinese EVs is likely to be minimal, said Nadjibulla. In 2023, all EV imports from China were Tesla models manufactured in Tesla's Shanghai factory, she said. “To avoid these tariffs in the U.S. and Canada, Tesla will likely change its supply routes. Therefore, the immediate impact on Canadian consumers is limited.”

As of Q2 2024, the latest reported, Tesla’s annual manufacturing production reached 950,000 in Shanghai. That rose from 2017’s 450,000 to surpass Tesla’s U.S. production capacity, now the largest anywhere in the world, according to their financial statements. The company’s U.S.-based facilities in California and Texas have an annual production capacity of 900,000 units. Its German manufacturing capacity falls well behind, with just 375,000 vehicles per year.

If China were to set up EV manufacture and export shops in Mexico meanwhile, utilising trade rules of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, it would be an “extinction-level event” for the U.S. automotive industry and should compel their government to pressure Mexico for national security’s sake, U.S. automakers have said.

In the longer term, Canada’s tariffs on Chinese EV imports could make it harder to meet the Trudeau government’s mandate of having all cars sold be ZEVs by 2035, said Nadjibulla.

In 2023, ZEVs (which include battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, by Statistics Canada’s definition) were 14.76 percent of new vehicles registered. (Statistics Canada’s count of “new vehicles registered” includes first-time vehicle registrations from the previous, current, or next model year, and are commonly used to represent vehicle sales.)

Based on the average growth of ZEV share from 2021 to 2023—14.1 percent—it's projected that by 2026 Canada will meet that year’s ZEV sales target, of 20 percent.

However, by 2035, ZEVs are projected to account for just 71 percent of all new vehicles in Canada, and by 2030 just 37 percent (below 2030’s 60 percent goal). To reach 100 percent of all Canadian vehicle sales by 2035, ZEVs’ share of new sales must experience an average annual growth of at least 17 percent.

“Depending on how quickly Canadian and U.S. automakers can ramp up [EV] production—a significant uncertainty—Canadians will likely end up with fewer choices and higher prices for EVs in the medium term,” said Nadjibulla.

When large open economies like the U.S. or E.U. impose Chinese EV tariffs, Chinese manufacturers must reduce their EV prices by some portion of the tariff to maintain a share of their larger markets.

This is not the case for Canada’s smaller consumer market. “We’re just not big enough to throw our weight around that way,” said Lander.  “When we’re looking at the E.U. or the U.S. saying ‘maybe we should try (an EV tariff) here’...the impacts are going to be different.”

Canada’s few EV manufacturers could raise their own prices to match the higher prices of Chinese EVs, the result of Canada's EV tariff, he said, adding that small open economies such as Canada should thus apply additional caution when considering tariffs.

Universities across Canada are resuming classes this week after a tumultuous 2023-2024 academic year and summer, marked by several antisemitic incidents and protests following Hamas’ October 7 attack and subsequent Israeli military operations in Gaza.

In the aftermath of Hamas’ deadly massacre, which left 1,200 people dead and 250 abducted as hostages, student organizations issued statements labeling the Islamist terrorist attack as “justified,” “necessary,” “heroic,” and “monumental.” Pro-Palestinian students were subsequently recorded tearing down posters of hostages at multiple universities and calling for intifada.

Antisemitic incidents persisted through the spring and summer, with activist students setting up protest encampments, inspired by those seen at elite American institutions like Columbia, to demand that their administrations divest from Israel.

The Hamas red triangle was seen at several Canadian encampments, along with Hamas logos, and the encampments often featured calls to “globalize the intifada.” Affidavits from a University of Toronto lawsuit alleged that phrases such as “Burn Tel Aviv down,” “Death to the Jews, Hamas for Prime Minister,” “We need another Holocaust,” and “Jews belong in the sea, Palestine will be free,” were observed at or near the encampment on its campus.

Although the encampments have since been dismantled, anxiety remains high for many Jewish students as the new school year approaches.

Ahead of the return to class, Deborah Lyons, the federal special envoy on preserving Holocaust remembrance and combating antisemitism, and MP Anthony Housefather, the special advisor to the prime minister on Jewish community issues and antisemitism, sent a letter to university presidents outlining a series of demands for the upcoming school year.

These include clearly communicating and enforcing campus rules, supporting Jewish students and faculty, reaffirming faculty responsibilities, anticipating and mitigating disruptions on the one-year anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel, and ensuring that all university DEI programs include the mainstream Jewish community, with DEI officers acting as champions of Jewish inclusion.

“Last year, many Jewish students, staff, and faculty did not feel safe on campus. They felt unsafe being visibly Jewish, unsafe sharing their identity, and unsafe sharing their support for the State of Israel,” they wrote. “There has been a general perception that administrations have failed to protect the Jewish members of their college and university family. This needs to change, and it requires your leadership.”

What are universities saying?

The Hub reached out to Canada’s largest universities to inquire about their plans to address antisemitism this year and whether they intend to meet the demands outlined by Housefather and Lyons.

Below are the responses we received. Universities marked with a star (*) were previously occupied by anti-Israel encampments. The universities are listed in geographical order from east to west.

Memorial University of Newfoundland*

The Memorial University of Newfoundland said that “it will be clearly communicated that antisemitic hate speech, or hate speech of any kind, is a clear violation of [university] policies,” and that the university “will not tolerate any form of potentially hateful activity on its grounds. The university will follow its policies, guidelines, and procedures to maintain an environment where all students, faculty, and staff feel comfortable and can thrive.”

Memorial University added that it “has policies, procedures, and plans in place” to enforce the demands made by Housefather and Lyons.

An anti-Israel encampment occupied the Memorial University of Newfoundland from May 21 to July 5

Concordia University 

Concordia University stated it has “taken many steps since last fall to ensure the safety of everyone on campus,” including “monitoring events and demonstrations and adding personnel when needed,” taking “disciplinary action against people who have violated Concordia’s Code of Rights and Responsibilities on campus,” increasing “workshops on anti-discrimination,” and establishing a task force to “assess the climate at Concordia.”

Concordia emphasized that all these efforts, which align with its consistent goal of maintaining a safe and inclusive campus for all students, faculty, and staff, “were already in place when we received the letter from the Special Envoy and MP Housefather.”

McGill University*

McGill University stated that “the safety and well-being of every member of our community” is its top priority. The university added that “where the line between lawful expression and assembly and a breach of our Code of Conduct or other policies, or the law, is crossed, McGill will act.”

McGill added that it is “working on initiatives to strengthen respectful discourse across differences and to bolster resources for students and colleagues most affected by the war and its impact on campus life.”

An anti-Israel encampment occupied McGill University from April 27 to July 10.

Queen’s University*

Queen’s University told The Hub that “numerous student groups, including the Queen’s University Anti-Hate Advisory Group, Hillel Queen’s, and the Queen’s University Muslim Students Association, as well as faculty and staff representatives, were directly involved in developing an awareness campaign for students planned for this fall.” The university also noted its focus on “safety and security on campus,” including offering de-escalation training for faculty and staff and increasing video surveillance in several residence buildings.

Queen’s also confirmed that it received the letter from Lyons and Housefather, and that it is responding to that letter.

An anti-Israel encampment occupied Queen’s University from May 10 to May 22.

Toronto Metropolitan University (formerly Ryerson)

A spokesperson for Toronto Metropolitan University said the University has already responded to two MP letters in the past, and shared a community update from January.

University of Toronto* 

The University of Toronto said in a statement that “no changes have been made to our policies in anticipation of the fall term,” but said it is “staunchly opposed” to antisemitism. “We continue to take action to combat it, and to ensure that our campuses are places where Jewish members of our community feel safe, included, and respected.”

“All members of the U of T community continue to be free to exercise their free speech rights and advocate for causes without erecting structures, blocking building access or occupying property overnight,” the university noted, adding that its DEI office “offers resources and tools to support an inclusive environment, including processes to address concerns about antisemitism.”

An anti-Israel encampment occupied the University of Toronto from May 2 to July 3

University of Waterloo*

The University of Waterloo said it is taking several steps to prevent antisemitism on its campus, including continuing to meet regularly with representatives of the Jewish community at Waterloo “to ensure coordination of support for the Jewish community on campus.” The university also mentioned its “ongoing collaboration with the special constable service to support campus safety and security, particularly in planning for any memorial events on October 7.”

Waterloo added that it “will be responding to MP Housefather and Special Envoy Lyons very shortly, affirming our commitment to the safety of everyone on our campuses—including Jewish faculty, staff, and students.” The university acknowledged that “the Jewish community on campus has felt unsafe in recent months, and this is of great concern to our leaders.”

An anti-Israel encampment occupied the University of Waterloo from May 13 to July 7.

Wilfrid Laurier University

In a statement, Wilfrid Laurier University said it “strongly condemns acts of antisemitism and Islamophobia and has zero tolerance for hate speech, racism, threats and harassment.” The university added that “in anticipation of welcoming Laurier students back to our campuses,” its safety, health, environment and risk management department has been “reviewing campus safety policies and procedures to ensure safety is prioritized during on-campus events and activities.”

The university also said that “senior leadership has regularly met with representatives from Hillel and our Jewish chaplain to listen to concerns, which help inform our approach to campus safety and maintain the inclusive community we pride ourselves on,” and that its DEI office is “reviewing resources to make available to the community as education in understanding and combating antisemitism.”

York University*

York University stated that its faculty members “are taking proactive action to enhance education as a tool for building understanding among students with different backgrounds and beliefs” and that they have convened “a group of faculty and staff invested in combating antisemitism and supporting Jewish community members.” The university also highlighted its swift response to dismantle an encampment on campus last spring.

Regarding the demands in the letter from Housefather and Lyons, York said, “the University has received the letter. We are confident that the steps that we have taken and will continue to take address the concerns that have been raised.”

An anti-Israel encampment occupied York University from June 5 to June 6.

University of Manitoba*

The University of Manitoba stated it is “against racism in all its forms, including antisemitism,” and that it is “committed to offering increased resources for education around antisemitism.” The university added that it continues to “actively meet with Jewish organizations and groups from UM and the broader community to hear their concerns and discuss solutions that could promote positive change and strengthen our efforts against antisemitism.”

The University of Manitoba also confirmed receiving the letter from Housefather and Lyons.

An anti-Israel encampment occupied the University of Manitoba from May 7 to July 15.

University of Calgary*

The University of Calgary stated, “We have not implemented new policies or measures but continue to enforce our existing policies and processes, which are designed to be robust, responsive, and fair.” The university emphasized that “Hate speech and discriminatory activities are covered by both criminal law and our Code of Conduct” and noted that its position on encampments “has been firm: while you are free to protest, you are not free to camp, and protests must occur between the hours of 8 a.m. and 10 p.m.”

They also acknowledged receiving Housefather and Lyon’s letter, stating, “We believe what [they have] requested is already underway.”

An anti-Israel encampment occupied the University of Calgary for several hours on May 9.

Mount Royal University

Mount Royal University said it “does not tolerate discrimination, racism, harassment, hate speech, violence, or speech that constitutes a threat as outlined in our policies for both students and employees.”

Simon Fraser University

Simon Fraser University stated that “antisemitism, racism, and hate of any kind have no place” at the university, and that “several actions have been implemented across our three campuses to protect members of the Jewish community and address antisemitism specifically.”

SFU added that “as part of our work to combat antisemitism and ensure a safe campus for all,” it is reviewing Lyons’ and Housefather’s recommendations and ensuring “it supports the important work SFU already has underway.”

University of British Columbia*

The University of British Columbia stated that hate and discrimination “have no place on UBC’s campuses” and that “discrimination, including on the basis of race, religion, or place of origin, is unacceptable and will not be tolerated.” The university also said that it “reviews all reported incidents of discrimination, with the Office of Equity and Inclusion providing support for students, faculty, and staff who seek human rights advising.”

“Since Oct. 7, 2023, the university has met with Jewish student group leaders to understand their concerns and consider how the university might address them,” UBC added. “We have enhanced Campus Security and are working closely with the RCMP to support a safe campus environment.”

An anti-Israel encampment occupied UBC’s Vancouver campus from April 29 to July 8.

University of Victoria*

The University of Victoria stated, “Antisemitism, Islamophobia, anti-Muslim and associated hate, violence, and intolerance are unacceptable on our campus,” and that it is “committed to cultivating a campus environment that is inclusive, equitable, and supportive.”

The university added that “UVic’s Campus Security team regularly works with staff, faculty, and students to build safety plans when concerns are brought to their attention. They also provide a suite of safety supports and resources to all members of the UVic community.”

An anti-Israel encampment occupied the University of Victoria from May 1 to July 22.

Vancouver Island University*

Vancouver Island University stated that more information about its responses to anti-Israel activism can be found in the “updates to our community” on its website.

An anti-Israel encampment occupied VIU’s campus from May 1 to August 18

The Hub reached out to 27 Canadian universities and included the responses it received in time for publication.