Ginny Roth: There’s not going to be an election anytime soon

Sometimes I think that occasional distance from Ottawa can help one see the forest for the trees. Ottawa regulars—the media, public servants, and partisans of all kinds—are convinced there’s going to be an early writ period. Some think it will be earlier than others, and when it comes to the Conservatives, I can certainly understand their wishful thinking. But if you ask me, it’s hard to see the path to a snap election.

Only a week into the fall Parliament, the opposition parties have already mounted, and dispensed with, a motion of non-confidence in the government. Heck, the matter was dispensed within hours of its being considered. Ottawa watchers went from impressed with the discipline of Pierre Polievre’s crystal clear, not-at-all-torqued opposition day motion to deflated with Yves Francois Blanchet’s quick and shameless insistence he wouldn’t bring down a government he has disavowed. And that’s before we get to  Jagmeet Singh’s subsequent clarification that he would be voting against non-confidence because…Conservatives are evil? Well, it wasn’t entirely clear why.

Expect more of this. A lot more of this. Breathless headlines, Conservatives chomping at the bit, clumsy opposition manoeuvres, and painful NDP contorting, followed by some hand wringing, frustration, and then resignation to the current state of affairs. To understand why, let’s consider the actions of each of the various parties that hold the balance of power and think through what’s driving their next steps.

NDP

It’s been clear for a long time that this federal NDP is not interested in trying to form government. Not only that, but it also now seems clear that while there may be some internal pressure for Singh to distance himself from Justin Trudeau, that pressure isn’t strong enough to make him trigger an election. When forced last week to choose between allying himself with the Conservatives who want an election and the Liberals who don’t, Singh chose obeisance, even with the cover of the BQ propping up the government.

I use the word “allying” on purpose here. Unlike the NDP under the often pragmatic Jack Layton, Singh isn’t open to working with Conservatives to advance his party’s interests, because for Singh the world is divided into two groups: the progressives (acceptable) and the not progressives (unacceptable). And however distasteful he and his caucus may find some Liberals, supporting their agenda doesn’t get them kicked out of the acceptable people club.

Bloc Québécois

What about the BQ? They haven’t had a chance to flex their muscle on the national stage in a number of years. And in the intervening period, it must be noted that while they remain a Quebec separatist party, they have evolved into a separatist party of the Left. While the recent Montreal by-election result should embolden Blanchet (and emboldened, he sure sounds), his role in the informal progressive coalition blob is to fight pipelines that would convert our natural resources into wealth and squeeze the Liberals for some more indiscriminate spending, maybe trying to boost the fortunes of his provincial counterparts in the PQ while he’s at it. A national election that would surely secure a majority government for the Conservatives doesn’t serve his interests. So, why even pretend?

Liberal Party

And what of the Liberal Party? How to make sense of its behaviour these past weeks? Seeming indifference at badly losing another historically safe Liberal seat, barely a shrug from caucus as weekly news emerges of key cabinet ministers not offering in the next election, and a stubborn leader, refusing to clear the way for the next one. Certainly, this behaviour baffled me a year ago as I watched formerly formidable electoral foes pass on the opportunity to define Poilievre after he was elected leader, fail to acknowledge the cost-of-living crisis, and watch their standing in the public opinion polls ebb down to the low twenties.

But lately I’ve come to think of Trudeau differently. He’s appointing overtly partisan Liberal Senators, pulling levers of power to benefit his allies, and he seems strangely relaxed, willing to try to prosecute a rhetorical moral case against the Conservatives—but also not terribly interested in having it convert into a change in public opinion. Liberals around Trudeau insist he’s still intent on winning. They insist he’s a fighter, he performs best on the campaign trail, and he’s eager to go up against Poilievre.

What if all that’s true, with the caveat that Trudeau has redefined for himself what winning looks like? Many have pointed in recent weeks to the example of Brian Mulroney, who, having stuck around for too long, left the Progressive Conservatives with only two seats in Parliament and Kim Campbell in a very tough spot. But what if there’s a different way to look at that cautionary tale? What if Trudeau thinks Mulroney didn’t leave too late but left too early?

Once you entertain the idea that Trudeau believes he’s the only Liberal leader who can save the furniture, and that that’s the only victory he can salvage now, everything starts to make sense. Add to that the fact that the NDP and the BQ see themselves as part of a broader soft coalition of the Left, who, together with the Liberals, can hold onto power in Parliament even as their grip on public opinion wanes, and you start to accept that we’re probably not going to see an election soon.

We’re in purgatory, or political limbo, where a serious, durable shift in economics, politics, and public opinion is about way more than just vibes. But despite that, Parliament’s got a year before it must catch up. The BQ will probably have a couple of opportunities to, as Blanchet crudely put it, “grab something.” The NDP is going to do the same.

As for Trudeau? Expect more partisan appointments, more intractable policy change, more difficult-to-cut spending, and some global travel. I’m sorry to say it, Conservatives, but Trudeau is in his the-longer-I’m-prime minister era, and he’s got a couple of dance partners who are more than happy to keep the party going before the clock strikes midnight.